The Alliance: Week 4 Review & Stats to Know

With no time to waste, let’s just get right to the Week 4 action in The Alliance of American Football (AAF).

Week 4 Game Analysis

Spread: San Diego -6.5 (did not cover)

Total: 41.5 (over)

Memphis Express

Quarterback:

The Express finally made the switch from Christian Hackenberg to Zach Mettenberger and the results could not have been better. Despite watching him team fall into a 14-3 hole in the first quarter, Mettenberger hung in there and brought his team within five by the end of the first half, thanks to his first rushing touchdown of the season. He proceeded to complete 72% of his passes on the day and led his team downfield for two scoring drives in the fourth quarter to give Memphis a big win over the Fleet. It’s only one start, but with 174 passing yards, one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown and no interceptions, he’s given the team a lot more hope than Hackenberg ever did. 

Running Back:

Zac Stacy continues to lead the backfield and had 18 touches in this one. Unfortunately, he couldn’t get anything going and accrued just 39 yards. Like many of the running backs in the league, he lacks the explosiveness to break off really big runs and will remain limited in the yardage department. Sherman Badie, who surprised everyone with a strong debut performance last week, was relegated to complementary work and couldn’t get anything going either. His best play was a 15-yard catch, but still failed to score. Terrence Magee, on the other hand, only saw five carries and two targets, but made the most of his limited work with a six-yard touchdown catch to tie the game late in the fourth. It looks like we’ll see this kind of carry distribution moving forward.

Wide Receiver:

Mettenberger spread the ball around fairly nicely with Alton “Pig” Howard and Devin Lucien each seeing a team-high five targets. Reece Horn, who led the team in receptions and receiving yards, finished the day with 63 yards after hauling in all four of his targets. The offense will continue to evolve with a new face under center, but these guys look like the Big Three for now with Dontez Byrd settling in as the fourth wideout.

Tight End:

The only tight end to see action in the passing game was Adrien Robinson who caught his lone target for a four-yard gain. We’re just going to have to monitor Mettenberger’s tendencies before we start signing off on players to use for your fantasy leagues.

San Diego Fleet

Quarterback:

Another blow to the Fleet’s offensive attack as Philip Nelson suffered a fractured clavicle in the second quarter of Saturday’s game and will now be out for approximately 4-to-6 weeks. He was replaced by Alex Ross who threw a 30-yard touchdown pass just a few plays after the injury, but the offense continually stalled in the second half and put up just three points as the Fleet took a loss. Word is that Mike Bercovici will start Week 5 for the Fleet instead of Ross, so that could increase the target-share for Francis Owusu who’s been left out in the cold ever since the Week 1 switch.

Running Back:

After an outstanding Week 3, Ja’Quan Gardner had some trouble moving the ball against Memphis and posted one of those infamous stat lines where he had more carries than yards-gained. Not good. Terrell Watson picked up the slack with 10 carries for 43 yards and his workload has now risen two weeks in a row. It is very possible these two work out of a committee, but it does appear that Gardner will be the primary pass-catcher. Nothing is etched in stone, but just something to keep in mind when setting lineups this week.

Wide Receiver:

As we’ve seen throughout the league, each quarterback has his preferred targets and while Philip Nelson and Alex Ross were feeding the ball consistently to Nelson Spruce and Dontez Ford, the impending switch to Bercovici could yield different results. Francis Owusu caught a touchdown from Bercovici in Week 1 and has been extremely quiet since, so perhaps we see an uptick in work for him. That’s not to say Ford and Spruce won’t be leaned on as well, but Berco’s had some INT issues, so perhaps he stays in a concise comfort zone at least to start.

Tight End:

The switch to Bervovici could also increase the target share for Gavin Escobar. The two jelled nicely I the preseason, so expect to see a few extra targets come his way, but obviously don’t count out Marcus Baugh who shined bright over these last two weeks and had a nice 30-yard TD catch last week.

Spread: Orlando Apollos -4.5 (covered)

Total: 44.5 (under)

Orlando Apollos

Quarterback:

Garrett Gilbert has been a major contributor for fantasy owners as he’s led the Apollos to four-straight victories and is the only QB in the league with over 1,000 passing yards. His 61.9-percent completion rate ranks second in the league among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts and his six touchdown passes ranks second among all quarterbacks. He also hasn’t thrown a single interception this season, so continue to ride him like a pony in both seasonal and DFS contests.

Running Back:

After leading the backfield in rushes, yards and scores over the last two weeks, D’Ernest Johnson fell back into more of a committee role this past week as he carried the ball just eight time, the same number of carries as Akeem Hunt and four fewer than De’Veon Smith who is usually the short-yardage back. We’ll continue to stick with Johnson as the primary in this offense as he’s been the most consistent over the first four weeks, but trouble could be brewing for fantasy owners if Steve Spurrier is looking at this as more of a committee approach. The Salt Lake defense had actually been real solid through the first three weeks, so perhaps this was more match-up based than anything. Continue to monitor.

Wide Receiver:

The beautiful thing about this 4-0 team is the passing game remains consistent. Charles Johnson leads both the Apollos and the league in both targets and receptions and enjoyed his second 100-yard effort of the season. Jalin Marshall and Rannell Hall remain the next two in-line for targets with Donteea Dye, Jr. sneaking in with some red zone work. The pecking order is unlikely to change, so if you’re playing DFS, Johnson should be a staple in all your lineups.

Tight End:

The Apollos use their tight ends primarily for blocking still as not one of their three rostered tight ends saw a single target this past week. In fact, the three of them have just five catches combined through four games. Move along. Nothing left to see here.

Salt Lake Stallions

Quarterback:

The Stallions offense remains a run-first scheme which means the work for Josh Woodrum is pretty limited. He’s got some decent wideouts, but when you’re only throwing about 20 times per game, you’re not exactly setting yourself up for prime-time action. He’s efficient and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but from a fantasy standpoint, he’s pretty vanilla.

Running Back:

After weeks of a relatively even split in carries, Branden Oliver took the lead reins this week with 17 carries and two targets to just eight carries for Joel Bouagnon. Of course, it was Bouagnon who got the red zone work and found his way into the end zone, so while he failed to see an equal share of the work, fantasy-wise, he was just as productive. It’s been extremely difficult to determine which guy you want to start and it’s probably not going to get any easier as both backs are built similarly with running styles very close to each other. At least we know it’s a run-first system so both will continue to see the work.

Wide Receiver:

The receiving corps’ pecking order is equally muddled here. De’Mornay Pierson-El was the go-to guy for Woodrum, but coverage tightened up on him to the point where Brian Tyms and Kenny Bell saw the most opportunities this past week. Neither guy was all that productive and, in fact, it was Adonis Jennings who led the team in receiving yards with just 43 on two catches. Pierson-El and, probably, Bell are the two you want the most shares of on a regular basis.

Tight End:

Both Anthony Denham and Nick Truesdell were afterthoughts this week and neither has been all that productive on the season. Again, this position is dead for fantasy, so just keep hunting until you find one who starts to stand out even just a little.

Spread: Birmingham -7.5 (did not cover)

Total: 39.5 (under)

San Antonio Commanders

Quarterback:

It was a big win for the Commanders as they handed the Iron their first loss of the season. However, from a fantasy standpoint – or any scoring standpoint, for that matter – this was about as boring as you could get. Logan Woodside, serving really only as a game-manager, completed fewer than half his pass attempts (just 25 at that) and totaled just 106 yards through the air. We knew the game was going to be a defensive battle, so expectations weren’t exactly high, but man, this was ugly.

Running Back:

Considering the strength of the Iron’s defense, the performance of Kenneth Farrow – 30 carries for 142 yards – was probably more surprising than the Commanders notching the win. The 4.7 yards per carry average was good, not great, but he definitely exposed the lack of speed of the Iron linebackers on his outside runs when he got into space. Of course, if we want to complain, we can talk about how Trey Williams was the guy who got the red zone carry and got into the end zone. Annoying, right? Williams had a solid breakout in Week 3, but managed just 20 yards on four carries this week and stole Farrow’s thunder – a running theme throughout the entire Alliance.

Wide Receiver:

Well, if Woodside completed just 11 passes for 106 yards, do we really have to evaluate the wide receivers? Yuck. Demarcus Ayers and Greg Ward led the way with five targets each but neither had more than two catches. Mekale McKay had four targets and caught two. None of the three had more than 24 yards. The target distribution is really the only thing to take away here. The Commanders will match up against softer defenses in the future, but for this game….bleh.

Tight End:

Cam Clear…three targets….two catches…15 yards…..whoop-a-dee-doo! The two tight ends who are much higher-owned, Stehy Reden and Evan Rodriguez, had one target each and neither had a catch.

Birmingham Iron

Quarterback:

The fantasy community had high hopes for Luis Perez coming into the season and he had a real nice debut in Week 1. Sadly, it’s been all downhill from there. He went from being a confident pocket-passer capable of extending plays with his legs to a guy throwing quick touch-passes which float more than they zip. You’d like to think it comes down to the coach’s play-calling, but, in truth, it’s Perez. He’s just not as good as we thought he was and if he was, the Iron wouldn’t push such a run-heavy scheme.  

Running Back:

We’re in the exact same place here at running back for the Iron as we’ve been all year. Trent Richardson is the lead back, he scored another touchdown and his yards per carry average still sucks. Like really sucks. He had eight carries for a whopping 15 yards (1.9 YPC) and now has a 2.4 YPC on the season. Seven touchdowns, but a 2.4 YPC. You’d expect something like that out of Matt Asiata or some other goal-line back, but this is still the Iron’s starter. Maybe that’s why Brandon Ross got nine carries in this game….for 64 yards….a 7.1 YPC. Now Richardson did see eight targets which he turned into five catches for 37 yards which helps his value in a PPR format, but Ross also got into the action via the pass and while it wasn’t anything more than a two-yard gain, the question is…will the Iron make this a competition? We’ll have to wait and see.

Wide Receiver:

Another run-first offense to endure which means another lame-duck set of receivers to discuss. Of the 39 potential targets, 33.3-percent went to running backs and if you include the three targets for tight end Wes Saxton, that’s 41-percent of the targets that didn’t go to receivers. L’Damian Washington saw a team-high seven and Quinton Patton had six, but the two of them combined for just five catches for 52 yards. The disappointment with this passing offense continues and while we still may be able to utilize Patton, Washington and possibly DeVozea Felton (five targets), we’re probably looking more at a GPP tournament than a seasonal league or cash game.

Tight End:

As stated above, Wes Saxton had three targets and he caught all of them for a team-high 54 receiving yards. He’s the third tight end to start for this team, but he’s also the only one who stayed healthy throughout the entire game. He’ll be in-play in Week 5 considering Perez is more inclined to work with the short-passing game lately.

Spread: Hotshots -12 (did not cover)

Total: 41.5 (under)

Atlanta Legends

Quarterback:

We figured it was just a matter of time before the Legends made a switch at quarterback, but Christmas come early for Atlanta as Matt Simms got jacked up early in the first quarter and left with an undisclosed injury, officially ushering in the Aaron Murray era. And what a way to start as Murray completed 20-of-33 passes for 254 yards and while he failed to throw for any touchdowns, he rushed for 54 yards and led the Legends to their first win of the season. The interesting thing about this situation is that Murray looked as good, if not better than Garrett Gilbert and John Wolford, the two most prolific quarterbacks in the league. He’ll be a popular DFS choice this week as he faces Memphis, the team that has allowed at least 20 points per game this season.

Running Back:

While we’re celebrating for the Legends, let’s give a shout-out to Denard Robinson who found the end zone for the first time this season. He had nine carries for 43 yards and looked solid as one of the primary runners. We say “one of” because Brandon Radcliff actually saw the majority of carries (12 for 48 yards) and was impressive on a few of those runs, one of which he leapfrogged a defender coming right at him, en route to a 16-yard gain. Tarean Folston and Lawrence Pittman played minor roles and could be relegated to that next week if the coaching staff wants to ride this wave of a single-game winning streak.

Wide Receiver:

With a new quarterback comes the rise of new receivers. Seantavius Jones went from being one of the most-targeted wideouts in the league to the recipient of just two this week. It was James Quick (5) and Malachi Jones (4) who saw the most targets, but now the question remains as to whether that’s the new pecking order or not. Six different receivers saw targets, as did three tight ends and two running backs. Which way Murray leans next week will be interesting to watch, but for now, Quick and Malachi Jones are the ones to watch.

Tight End:

Keith Trowbridge saw the most targets this week with three, but it was Bug Howard who locked down the most yardage on the day with one catch for 37 yards. We’ll have to watch to see if the Legends keep Howard at tight end or if they put him back as a wide receiver now that Murray is under center. Stay tuned.

Arizona Hotshots

Quarterback:

John Wolford returned to action after tweaking his back last week and he managed to last the whole game, throwing for 185 yards, one touchdown and a two-point conversion. It looks like he’s going to be ok and he should remain under center for the Hotshots, despite the fact that he failed to lead them to the win. It’s not like Trevor Knight is pushing him for the job, so while this game wasn’t all that, he’s still going to be one of your better QB options.

Running Back:

Jhurell Pressley led the way this week with 110 yards on 14 carries, though he failed to find his way into the end zone. John Stockton and Tim Cook each had three carries in more complementary roles and while Stockton still has promise, this job is Pressley’s to lose. He should be a strong play this week against San Antonio, a team that’s given up a 100-yard game with a score to Ja’Quan Gardner and a TD to Trent Richardson this past week.

Wide Receiver:

It’s all about Rashaad Ross, isn’t it? He found his way into the end zone for a fourth-straight game and continues to be a must-start in seasonal formats and a lock-play for all DFS contests. Josh Huff has been stepping into a larger role lately and caught 4-of-6 targets for 43 yards while Marquis Bundy and Freddie Martino each had three. If you’re playing anyone, it’s Ross and Huff. From there, look to the tight ends.

Tight End:

Gerald Christian and Thomas Duarte each saw a pair of targets and the tight end position has become Wolford’s third-favorite target. While they combined for the four targets in this one, Christian still seems to be the favorite so if you need to use someone, he’s the pick.

Stats to Know