2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Robbie Ray

Robbie Ray

If it were not for a freakish line drive to the head, which fortunately did no serious damage and held him out for just four or five turns in the Arizona rotation, Robbie Ray’s sensational end-of-season totals for 2017 obviously could have been even better. 18-20 wins and 250-plus strikeouts were both within the All-Star southpaw’s reach.

Many were calling for a breakout from Ray last year, and he did not disappoint them, finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 218 punchouts across 162.0 innings. His 12.1 K/9 was second only to strikeout king Chris Sale and a 14.2-percent swinging-strike rate placed him fifth among qualified hurlers, topping names such as Clayton Kershaw and Chris Archer.

There’s little, if any, reason to believe that Ray cannot sustain that form in 2018, especially if he continues to utilize his incredibly effective curveball at the rate in which he did last season. With that particular pitch, which accounted for only 5.3 percent of his deliveries in 2016 but jumped to 21.9 percent of them last season, Ray kept opposing batters off balance in a way in which he had not consistently been able to do in previous campaigns.

The opposition managed to put up a meager .188 AVG and .267 SLG off Ray’s bender in 2017. On top of that, the pitch produced an impressive 18.4-percent swinging-strike rate as well as a 54.1-percent contact rate and 52.3-percent ground-ball rate. Suffice it to say, Uncle Charlie became a real difference maker for Ray last summer.

In addition to career bests in K/9 and overall swinging-strike rate, Ray sliced his H/9 (6.4) by a third from 2016. A marked improvement in the field by the Diamondbacks certainly had a hand in that achievement. The organization made it a point to improve on defense last season via personnel and lineup decisions, and the entire pitching staff enjoyed the fruits of that labor. That theme should remain present with this year’s club.

Another thing that should further assist Ray during the upcoming season is the use of a humidor at what, in the past, has been a very homer-happy Chase Field. The one significant negative that Ray has endured the past couple of seasons is HR/FB rates of 15.5 and 15.6 percent respectively. The problem was actually accentuated in 2017, as his fly-ball rate rose from 32.6 percent in 2016 up to 40.3 percent. A quick look at Ray’s relevant Home / Road splits from last year easily explains how the humidor could be yet another substantial difference maker for him in this area.

Ray is already being treated as a Top-10 SP and Top-40 player overall per the most recent results of the Mock Draft Army. He has undoubtedly earned those draft positions and has the potential to outperform them in 2018. His immense upside in punchouts alone gives him extreme value in standard fantasy leagues. If Ray is able to avoid another random injury, look for him to be in the N.L. Cy Young conversation at season’s end.