DFS NFL RB Coach – Week 7, 2015

A few things of note when understanding some of statistics provided in the tables.  Most of the statistics are easy to understand but here are a few clarifications in case you are not following along:

The Pace ranking is based upon how fast each team gets to the line to run plays. The idea being the faster a team plays, the greater number of plays are run, which gives those particular players more chances at production. The rest of the data in the table below is pretty easy to understand as it relates mostly to the amount of volume and expected volume we can count on from each of the top RBs this week. 
 

D vs. Position – How that week's given opponent has done so far this season.

DVOA – Player's value over the average NFL running back performance so far this season. This number has been adjusted based upon opponent's defenses faced so far this season. The higher the number, the more value they have created for their team. 

Script – Rating based upon the expected game script or basically how each player's role in the offense will be affected based upon expected game flow. The higher the rating, the greater the expected game flow will work in their favor.  I.E. Danny Woodhead plays more in passing situations so with San Diego being sizeable favorites his role in the offense will likely be reduced if the game works out as expected. 

Premium Options

Devonta Freeman is averaging over 27 touches over the last four games since taking over as the starter.  He has also racked up eight TDs in that time.  The Titans are a Top-3 defense vs. RBs but it has not stopped Atlanta from running on just about everyone.  Freeman has added 25 catches over his four starts which shows he can contribute in multiple ways.

Adrian Peterson takes on a struggling Detroit defense which was lit up by the Chicago Bears last week.  Peterson is the focal point of the offense where he is almost a lock to get 20-plus carries.  Peterson does have a little more value on FanDuel since he is not as involved in the passing game so he doesn’t get the added points of some other RBs with a full-point PPR.

Arian Foster gets to play on the fastest-paced offense in the league in Houston and is the workhorse running back.  Foster has 50 touches over the last two games while averaging 115 total yards per game.  Miami showed some big improvement last week so while the season numbers don’t look great for their defense, it seems to be on the right track.  Foster is still a solid play but not nearly as good as it would have been under previous coaching for the Dolphins.

Mid-Tier Options

Latavius Murray gets a chance to exploit the San Diego defense this week.  Hopefully he doesn’t go Eddie Lacy on us and disappear.    The Chargers have the second-worst run defense in the league that is giving up a league high 5.4 yds per carry.  Murray is coming off a bye so he should be fresh and ready to go.  He has should get 15-plus carries along with three to four catches which should allow him to put up some very solid numbers.

Todd Gurley for the price tag is my favorite play of the week.  St. Louis had a bye week which has allowed Gurley a chance to rest after his 30 carry performance vs. Green Bay.  Cleveland’s run defense is awful coming in as fifth-worst in the league and gives up five yards per carry.  Gurley could see another 30 carries this week and would be an added bonus if he could catch a few passes.  The Rams have made it a point they want to ride their rookie RB.

Chris Ivory could fall subject to a game flow issue if the Jets fall behind early but it is hard to ignore his 312 yards in his last two games.  New England appears to have a decent rush defense if you look at the basic numbers but that is only because they have faced the second-fewest rush attempts in the league.  New England gives up 4.8 yds per carry and Ivory has been the second-most effective runner in the league. 

LeSean McCoy looked much better than expected last week coming back from his hamstring injury.  If Karlos Williams is out once again, McCoy will likely see all of the touches again this week.  Jacksonville has struggled to stop RBs the last two weeks and if McCoy’s hamstring holds up he should put up a big day.  I am a little worried about trusting McCoy to stay healthy but he makes a great tournament option.

Bargain Options

Lamar Miller may finally get his chance to shine with a new head coach in place.  For the first time all year, Miller finally got over 20 touches and he ran wild on Tennessee.  Miami has a new attitude so expect the running game to be a focal point.  Opposing defenses have a difficult time slowing down the Dolphins when they utilize the read option.   The Texans are the seventh-worst rush defense and play at the fastest pace in the league while the Dolphins rank third.  There should be plenty of extra chances for both offenses.

Christine Michael is very cheap across most sites but the questions remain how much work he gets.  It sounds like he will be more involved but not sure how much.  The Cowboys have not been nearly as good running the ball as last year so who knows how much success Michael will have if given a bunch of carries.  Michael should be limited to a tournament option despite his cheap price.  He is an unproven player who could very well only see five carries or less.