The new and improved NFL DFS RB Coach is up. A few things of note when understanding some of statistics provided in the tables. Most of the statistics are easy to understand but here are a few clarifications in case you are not following along:
The Pace ranking is based upon how fast each team gets to the line to run plays. The idea being the faster a team plays the greater number of plays are run which gives those particular players more chances at a production. The rest of the data in the below table is pretty eash to understand as it relates mostly to the amount of volume and expected volume we can count on from each of the top RB's this week.
Any questions please hit me up in the comments section or on twitter @tedschuster.
Here is the DFS NFL RB Coach for Week 4:
Player | # Plays (Team) | # Run Pays (Team) | # Snaps (Player) | % of Plays (Player/Team) | # Touches | % Touches (Player/Team) | ||||||
Le'Veon Bell | 30 | 23 | 60 | 95.2 | 26 | 41.3 | ||||||
Matt Forte | 27 | 12 | 161 | 77 | 68 | 38 | ||||||
Jamaal Charles | 16 | 18 | 170 | 82.5 | 62 | 32.6 | ||||||
Eddie Lacy | 22 | 6 | 85 | 34 | 37 | 25.9 | ||||||
Adrian Peterson | 31 | 9 | 121 | 70 | 64 | 37.6 | ||||||
Latavius Murray | 17 | 28 | 145 | 68.1 | 63 | 33.3 | ||||||
Joseph Randle | 21 | 19 | 87 | 41.4 | 54 | 28.9 | ||||||
Marshawn Lynch | 9 | 13 | 23 | 58.6 | 47 | 23.6 | ||||||
Arian Foster | 1 | 8 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||
Frank Gore | 24 | 1 | 119 | 58.9 | 41 | 22.2 | ||||||
DeMarco Murray | 15 | 22 | 78 | 57.4 | 30 | 16 | ||||||
Melvin Gordon | 6 | 14 | 92 | 41.4 | 48 | 26.4 | ||||||
Devonta Freeman | 3 | 10 | 142 | 63.7 | 64 | 30.6 | ||||||
Justin Forsett | 13 | 26 | 145 | 67.4 | 51 | 26.4 | ||||||
Mark Ingram | 7 | 24 | 140 | 63 | 55 | 27.2 | ||||||
Matt Jones | 4 | 5 | 67 | 29.4 | 39 | 19 | ||||||
Carlos Hyde | 11 | 1 | 129 | 60.3 | 61 | 30.8 | ||||||
Cameron Artis-Payne | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
T.J. Yeldon | 20 | 20 | 140 | 71.1 | 56 | 29.9 | ||||||
Giovani Bernard | 14 | 3 | 125 | 59.2 | 53 | 27.6 | ||||||
Karlos Williams | 25 | 4 | 57 | 29.1 | 26 | 14.2 | ||||||
C.J. Anderson | 8 | 27 | 134 | 62.3 | 37 | 18.4 | ||||||
Jeremy Hill | 14 | 3 | 83 | 39.3 | 42 | 21.9 | ||||||
Bilal Powell | 12 | 16 | 131 | 62.7 | 47 | 23.9 | ||||||
Ryan Mathews | 6 | 22 | 61 | 29.7 | 34 | 17.3 | ||||||
Andre Ellington | 26 | 7 | 39 | 62.9 | 13 | 7.3 | ||||||
Isaiah Crowell | 28 | 16 | 89 | 58.6 | 39 | 19.7 | ||||||
Lamar Miller | 19 | 31 | 131 | 64.5 | 39 | 20.7 | ||||||
Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 32 | 89 | 43.8 | 28 | 15.1 | ||||||
Chris Johnson | 26 | 7 | 89 | 45.2 | 53 | 28 | ||||||
LeSean McCoy | 25 | 4 | 125 | 63.8 | 50 | 26.2 | ||||||
Doug Martin | 29 | 15 | 99 | 49.3 | 49 | 31 | ||||||
Alfred Morris | 4 | 5 | 94 | 41.2 | 51 | 24.9 | ||||||
Ronnie Hillman | 8 | 27 | 75 | 33.5 | 24 | 11.9 | ||||||
Todd Gurley | 32 | 30 | 14 | 26.9 | 7 | 4.7 | ||||||
Danny Woodhead | 6 | 14 | 109 | 50.5 | 37 | 18.3 | ||||||
Chris Ivory | 12 | 16 | 64 | 49.2 | 37 | 19.8 | ||||||
Rashad Jennings | 18 | 17 | 62 | 30.8 | 37 | 19.6 | ||||||
Joique Bell | 23 | 27 | 60 | 25.7 | 25 | 13.5 | ||||||
Tre Mason | 32 | 30 | 51 | 49 | 19 | 12.7 | ||||||
Lance Dunbar | 21 | 19 | 82 | 39 | 23 | 12.3 | ||||||
C.J. Spiller | 7 | 24 | 22 | 14.7 | 7 | 3.5 | ||||||
Shane Vereen | 18 | 17 | 86 | 42.8 | 27 | 14.3 | ||||||
Fred Jackson | 9 | 13 | 40 | 19 | 10 | 5 | ||||||
Theo Riddick | 23 | 32 | 59 | 29.1 | 16 | 8.6 | ||||||
Darren McFadden | 21 | 19 | 41 | 19.5 | 25 | 13.4 | ||||||
Lorenzo Taliaferro | 13 | 26 | 41 | 26.1 | 14 | 7.2 | ||||||
Duke Johnson | 28 | 21 | 90 | 43.9 | 29 | 15.4 | ||||||
Darren Sproles | 15 | 22 | 73 | 33.6 | 32 | 16.8 | ||||||
Charles Sims | 29 | 15 | 89 | 44.3 | 26 | 14.6 |
Yeah that is right. We've packed so much data into our RB Coach that we have to do a second chart. Here are some tips on the below numbers.
D vs Position category is how that week's given opponent has done so far this season.
DVOA is a player's value over the average NFL running back performance so far this season. This number has been adjusted based upon opponent's defenses faced so far this season. The higher the number the more value they have created for their team.
The Script is a rating based upon the expected game script or basically how each player's role in the offense will be affected based upon expected game flow. The higher the rating the greater the expected game flow will work in their favor. I.E. Danny Woodhead plays more in passing situations so with San Diego being sizeable favorite's his role in the offense will likely be reduced if the game works out as expected.
Player | Pace | # Rush Atts | % Rush Attempts | D Vs Pos | DVOA | PFF O-Line | O/U | Script | ||||
Le'Veon Bell | 23 | 19 | 26.4 | 5 | -17.7 | 5 | 46.5 | 8 | ||||
Matt Forte | 22 | 59 | 67 | 19 | 11.3 | 10 | 44 | 7 | ||||
Jamaal Charles | 14 | 48 | 61.5 | 21 | 22.1 | 16 | 44 | 8 | ||||
Eddie Lacy | 28 | 32 | 35.2 | 27 | 17.2 | 9 | 48 | 9 | ||||
Adrian Peterson | 24 | 59 | 65.6 | 23 | 2.4 | 4 | 43 | 5 | ||||
Latavius Murray | 13 | 52 | 80 | 12 | 13.6 | 3 | 44 | 7 | ||||
Joseph Randle | 32 | 48 | 62.3 | 13 | -2.9 | 14 | 46.5 | 5 | ||||
Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 38 | 44.2 | 17 | -6.2 | 1 | 43 | 9 | ||||
Arian Foster | 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | 45 | 7 | ||||
Frank Gore | 14 | 37 | 57.8 | 29 | 2.6 | 31 | 46 | 9 | ||||
DeMarco Murray | 2 | 21 | 29.1 | 3 | -56.6 | 29 | 47 | 7 | ||||
Melvin Gordon | 25 | 44 | 29.2 | 30 | -8.6 | 17 | 45 | 9 | ||||
Devonta Freeman | 20 | 52 | 58.4 | 10 | 5.3 | 11 | 45 | 8 | ||||
Justin Forsett | 3 | 39 | 59.1 | 4 | -12.4 | 18 | 46.5 | 6 | ||||
Mark Ingram | 19 | 39 | 54.9 | 24 | 10.5 | 19 | 46.5 | 7 | ||||
Matt Jones | 27 | 36 | 38.3 | 8 | 14.1 | 27 | 45 | 5 | ||||
Carlos Hyde | 14 | 54 | 54.5 | 22 | 24.3 | 13 | 48 | 4 | ||||
Cameron Artis-Payne | 11 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 41 | 6 | |||||
T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 48 | 64.9 | 18 | -22.7 | 7 | 46 | 5 | ||||
Giovani Bernard | 21 | 41 | 41.8 | 2 | 25.2 | 2 | 44 | 6 | ||||
Karlos Williams | 26 | 24 | 24.7 | 28 | 85 | 8 | 45 | 9 | ||||
C.J. Anderson | 18 | 32 | 48.5 | 15 | -37.5 | 25 | 43 | 8 | ||||
Jeremy Hill | 21 | 41 | 41.8 | 2 | -19.7 | 2 | 44 | 7 | ||||
Bilal Powell | 12 | 34 | 43 | 11 | -16.8 | 23 | 41 | 5 | ||||
Ryan Mathews | 2 | 29 | 40 | 3 | -8.7 | 24 | 45 | 6 | ||||
Andre Ellington | 31 | 12 | 13.3 | 26 | 7.3 | 30 | 42.5 | 6 | ||||
Isaiah Crowell | 15 | 37 | 51.4 | 31 | -18.3 | 24 | 45 | 3 | ||||
Lamar Miller | 5 | 30 | 55.6 | 16 | -14.8 | 12 | 41 | 6 | ||||
Ameer Abdullah | 10 | 21 | 41.2 | 1 | -14.1 | 32 | 43 | 3 | ||||
Chris Johnson | 31 | 52 | 57.8 | 26 | 15.3 | 30 | 42.5 | 7 | ||||
LeSean McCoy | 26 | 43 | 44.3 | 28 | -12.6 | 8 | 46.5 | 7 | ||||
Doug Martin | 8 | 46 | 56.8 | 20 | -29.3 | 21 | 41 | 4 | ||||
Alfred Morris | 27 | 49 | 52.1 | 8 | -10.3 | 27 | 45 | 2 | ||||
Ronnie Hillman | 18 | 28 | 42.4 | 15 | -15.3 | 25 | 43 | 7 | ||||
Todd Gurley | 29 | 6 | 10.5 | 14 | -54.5 | 20 | 42.5 | 3 | ||||
Danny Woodhead | 25 | 25 | 29.8 | 30 | 15.1 | 17 | 45 | 2 | ||||
Chris Ivory | 12 | 34 | 43 | 11 | 4.3 | 23 | 41 | 7 | ||||
Rashad Jennings | 4 | 33 | 42.3 | 6 | -19.9 | 22 | 45 | 4 | ||||
Joique Bell | 10 | 20 | 39.2 | 1 | -17.7 | 32 | 43 | 1 | ||||
Tre Mason | 29 | 16 | 28.1 | 14 | -66.6 | 20 | 42.5 | 6 | ||||
Lance Dunbar | 32 | 2 | 2.6 | 13 | 14 | 46.5 | 4 | |||||
C.J. Spiller | 19 | 4 | 5.6 | 24 | 19 | 46.5 | 4 | |||||
Shane Vereen | 4 | 15 | 19.2 | 6 | 17.1 | 22 | 45 | 7 | ||||
Fred Jackson | 16 | 5 | 5.8 | 17 | 30.4 | 1 | 43 | 2 | ||||
Theo Riddick | 10 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 32 | 43 | 8 | |||||
Darren McFadden | 32 | 22 | 28.6 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 46.5 | 4 | ||||
Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 10 | 15.2 | 4 | 15.1 | 18 | 46.5 | 6 | ||||
Duke Johnson | 15 | 23 | 31.9 | 31 | -20.1 | 24 | 45 | 7 | ||||
Darren Sproles | 19 | 17 | 23.6 | 3 | -10.3 | 29 | 45 | 4 | ||||
Charles Sims | 8 | 19 | 23.4 | 20 | -13 | 21 | 40 | 8 |
Premium Options
Le’Veon Bell will be the focal point of the offense without Ben Roethlisberger for the next few weeks. The Steelers have a top 5 offensive line so far this season they will need to lean on Bell with the inaccurate Michael Vick at the QB position. Baltimore has struggled on offense this season so it should be a tight game. Bell was also on the field for all but 3 snaps last week so it does not appear that Deangelo Williams will cut into his touches.
The Chicago Bears only have one thing going for them right now and that is Matt Forte. The Bears were overmatched last week vs. Seattle but Forte did have some first half success. Chicago has graded out decently in run blocking squeezing into the Top 10 and the Raiders are not exactly a stout defense checking in at 19th vs. running backs. Even if the Bears fall behind early, Forte is still an important piece of the passing game and will be productive.
Jamaal Charles does not appear to be slowing down. The concern of Knile Davis being involved has not happened as well. Charles is a rare 3 down back who is threat to catch or run for every TD when the Chiefs get close to the end zone. Despite injuries and lack of proven players the offensive line sits in the middle of the pack. Charles is the on-field 82.5% of the teams snaps so he is almost game flow proof along match-up proof.
The Texans running game will be in a great spot this weekend. Houston runs at the fastest tempo in the league, the best run blocking line according PFF and take on the lowest ranked run defense in Atlanta. The issue is the status of Arian Foster. Foster is coming back from a significant injury so maybe difficult to trust but he could have a big game if active. Foster makes a great GPP play but a risky cash game plan.
Mid-Tier Options
Joseph Randle had a monster 1st half last week and for some reason the Cowboys abandoned the running game after a great start. The Cowboys are ranked middle of the pack right now in run blocking and teams will likely load up the box to stop the run with Brandon Weeden at QB. Randle has been getting the bulk of the carries and while not likely to put up another huge game this week, he should be able to have a solid stat line.
The Falcons are showing a new and improved running game as expected under Kyle Shanahan. Atlanta’s run blocking has dramatically improved this season and with Tevin Coleman still banged up it appears Devonta Freeman will be the man once again. I doubt he gets another 35 carries this week but he exceed 20+ comfortably which will be great with a very affordable price tag.
Carlos Hyde will be lightly owned this week but he is the only thing the 49ers have going. Hyde has been quiet the last two weeks but San Francisco still has run the most in the league. The game script could be a potential issue with Green Bay coming to town so there is some risk. A couple things that work in Hyde’s favor though is that the Packers are not nearly has dominant on the road and the Packers are 22nd against the run so can be hurt via the ground. If this game stays close, Hyde could have a very nice game at a low ownership level.
Latavius Murray will take on the Bears who are probably the worst team in the league. The Raiders have been the third best run blocking team in the league. Murray is a three down back that will likely be heavily owned based no his match-up. The one concern I have is that Bears have a back-up QB and will lean heavily on Matt Forte to keep control of the ball. Oakland’s run defense has not been good which could lead to less time on the field for Murray as the Bears try to shorten the game with the “Great” Jimmy Clausen at QB
San Diego is getting more and more comfortable with Melvin Gordon. The game vs Cleveland sets up nicely for Gordon. The Browns are 30th in the league in run defense and Gordon has been getting 16 touches per game. The Chargers should control this game at home which means more rushing attempts from the rookie and less Danny Woodhead. Gordon should score his first TD this week.
Bargain Options
Karlos Williams is going to be a must own this week if LeSean McCoy misses the game. The Bills are 4th in rush attempts this year, go up against the 28th ranked run defense and Williams has been the most effective runner in the league with his limited touches. The negative he would have is that he is not likely to get goal line carries but that has not mattered so far with Williams scoring in every game.