It is a well-known idiom that the core of your team, whether it be fantasy or in real life, is drafted in the later rounds of the draft. While the first few rounds of the draft hold all the glitz and glam, so to speak, or all of the star-caliber to put it another way. The later in the draft you go, the better opportunities there are to build a championship winning roster and take advantage of more and more value. There are a few different ways to really use the late rounds to your advantage and separate from the pack with your fantasy baseball rosters like targeting some of these player types: rebound candidates, starters in deep positions, guys in position battles, potential prospects getting the call to the show, starting pitchers with question marks surrounding them, or closer candidates. It’s quite possibly the most important part of your draft and if you get it right, you could be set up very well for a championship run.

Any ADP cited in the piece is from non-auction NFBC ADP as of January 20th and subject to be updated.

Rebound Candidates

Now, clearly 2020 was a season like no other, and hopefully it stays that way. Judging rebound candidates can be tough and it involves a larger pool of players than it ordinarily would, but it’s still a pivotal part of drafting to get right and oftentimes these players will wind up falling in drafts. Catcher Omar Narváez (ADP 365) had a terrible season in 2020, his first in Milwaukee, hitting under .180 with just two homers in 40 games played. However, in a full season in 2019 in Seattle, the backstop hit 22 home runs and had hit between .275 and .278 from 2017-2019. Second baseman Scott Kingery (ADP 318) was just terrible in 2020 hitting just three long balls, six RBI, and under .160 AVG (.200 BABIP) in 36 games for the Phillies. Yet in 2019 he hit .258 (.337 BABIP) while nearly posting a 20-15 season. Third Baseman Carter Kieboom (ADP 465) hasn’t been spectacular in his short time in the majors but the advanced stats improved in 2020 to a .299 BABIP and .275 wOBA which could set him up well in a revamped Nationals’ lineup and more full-time chances at third base in 2021 all while being the 40th third baseman off the board currently. All of these players, plus more that you should check out in the Covid Rebound article, make for great picks in the late rounds of drafts that may just give you the depth you need to be a threat later in the season.

Deep Position Starters

The player pool in baseball drafts is one that can be easily divided into shallow and deep positions. Knowing where the position scarcity is can be a huge part of putting together winning rosters and that’s where this late-round strategy comes into play. If there are starters available in the deeper positions later in drafts, you can focus on drafting the top players at the shallower positions earlier, thus giving you an advantage at those spots without giving up much, if any, value at the deep positions either. What positions are deep this year in terms of fantasy relevant players? Shortstop, outfield, starting pitching, and to a lesser degree, second base and/or third base. Players like Willy Adames , Amed Rosario , and Nick Ahmed are all starting shortstops with ADP between 306 and 381. Kole Calhoun , Mark Canha , David Peralta , Mitch Haniger , and Adam Eaton are all OF3 quality players with ADP worse than 260 and Eaton is all the way down at 374 or a 31st-round pick in 12-team leagues. In the starting pitcher realm, names like Marcus Stroman , Sean Manaea , Nate Pearson , and Dane Dunning can all be taken between 230 and 287 in ADP with Stroman at 230 being P83 and then Caleb Smith , Griffin Canning , Robbie Ray , Casey Mize , Madison Bumgarner , and Dylan Cease all coming off the board between 312 and 378 in ADP. While they’re not the studs that we find at the top of the position, all are capable of having very solid seasons and giving you that great pitching depth that wins you multiple categories in roto leagues or helps fill out points or categories leagues. Combining players from second base and third base Starlin Castro , Michael Chavis , Eduardo Escobar , Edwin Ríos , and Carter Kieboom are all available after pick 308 and in the case of Escobar and Rios they are both starting third baseman hitting in the middle of lineups and are available after the 25th round. While they may not be the sexiest of names or of the star-studded variety, they are all valuable, worth owning, and in most cases startable players that will allow you to double-up on shallower spots like catcher, first base, or closer and give you a major leg up in those spots.

Position Battle Players

When players are in a position battle leading into the season, or the manager says it will carry into the season, fantasy managers tend to knock players down their lists because of perceived lower value or perhaps a perceived loss of stat potential. That can be used to your advantage. Oftentimes the players we think are in position battles heading into the season either wind up getting the lion share of the work or fit in multiple positions by the middle of the season and thus actually have more value. Another way to look at this is to target players that are on overcrowded teams or teams that like versatility in their players because they are the best at getting platoon roles and a solid amount of at-bats each season. Anyone on the right side of the infield for Colorado fits this mold in Ryan McMahon , Garrett Hampson , and Brendan Rodgers. Players for the Dodgers like Gavin Lux , Chris Taylor , Giants Mauricio Dubón or Wilmer Flores all fit this mold as well, but they don’t just have to be in the NL West. Players in platoon roles or playing on a team with a DH are also great picks for this as they may get overlooked but might still see enough plate appearances to get value. Take Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen who are splitting the catching and likely DH duties for Toronto. How about the triplett of Mike Brosseau , Yandy Díaz , and Joey Wendle in Tampa who can all play third, first, or DH any given game. So once again, the strategy being employed here is to simply get guys with solid upside who are being overlooked and could bring value of guys being drafted decently sooner than them.

Prospects Potentially Getting Called-up

Everyone loves the new shiny toys in the form of rookies and highly-touted prospects and that can boost their ADP’s in draft season as people don’t want to be left out of the frenzy to get a piece of the hype. However, there are those prospects that fly under-the-radar but still have a good shot of being productive when they come up to the majors and should have less pressure on them to perform, and therefore, a longer leash. The best ways to root these players out is to watch the moves the major league team is making in the offseason, and look past the top few prospects, as typically those managers not that interested in this strategy only skim the top names in farm systems. Great examples of these teams this year are the Cubs, Reds, Indians, Braves, Orioles, Tigers, and even the Yankees in their pitching staff. They are unloading their major league pieces and rely on fill-ins or their further along prospects, who may not be their top guys in their systems. Adbert Alzolay , Tejay Antone, Triston McKenzie, Nolan Jones, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, Ryan Mountcastle , Keegan Akin, Matt Manning , Casey Mize , and Tarik Skubal, Daz Cameron, Clarke Schmidt, and Deivi Garcia are all prospects or rookies that are underrated at this point and leading into the season we’ll be following more prospects having good spring trainings that may boost their stock, but not enough to crack the mid-rounds. 

Questionable Starting Pitchers

Every year there are a bevy of pitchers that get injured, some more seriously than others, and that leads to pitchers coming back with dependability and health questions surrounding them come draft time. Clearly taking shots on injured players is a risk, hence the reason we’re stipulating this as a late-round strategy since there is a far lower value-to-risk threshold for those picks. But this is a strategy that can pay big dividends if these pitchers stay healthy and produce. They also don’t have to be injured pitchers, they could be aging arms or guys coming off a tumultuous season. Chris Sale , Eduardo Rodríguez , Corey Kluber , Michael Kopech , Noah Syndergaard , and A.J. Puk are all great options for guys coming back from injury as they are all expected to be ready by Opening Day except for Syndergaard who will be back a couple months into the season. They are all currently going between 236 and 415 in drafts. There are also pitchers who are coming off of questionable stretches in their careers like Justus Sheffield, Domingo Germán , Robbie Ray , Madison Bumgarner , and Adam Wainwright . All had parts of last season in which they were impressive and closer to what we expect from them (except German who was out last season). For example, Bumgarner had a far better ERA in the second half of last year and Wainwright was very good in the first half but trailed off a bit down the stretch. These are pitchers you can look to as SP5 or worse as long as you have a stable grouping of two or three pitchers. There’s not as much risk associated with picking the more questionable guys.

Closer Candidates

Elite closers go early and often in drafts and for good reason because it’s tough to find lockdown closers for the full season. So the next best way to find saves and not risk a ton of draft capital is to take chances on set-up, or possible closers in the later rounds of drafts. If you don’t have an elite closer, it really doesn’t take that many saves to be competitive in the category and so fishing for saves can really come down to striking while the time is right for certain guys. There are certainly teams that use a closer-by-committee approach which artificially deflates everyone’s value the same and lowers the ADP, but there’s still the shot that one guy takes the job because he simply does it better and that can be a big boon for those that draft them. There are also teams that will still be feeling out the position early in the season because their bonafide ninth inning arm may have left in the offseason, see San Diego and Oakland. There are also the closers that enter in a precarious position because of a rough season last year, but if they get off to a good start could keep the gig. We’re looking at guys like Matt Barnes , Jordan Romano , Jordan Hicks , Mark Melancon , Tanner Rainey , Diego Castillo , Daniel Bard, Greg Holland , Daniel Hudson , Lucas Sims , Brandon Kintzler , and Hunter Harvey who are all sitting between 230 and 412 in current ADP or basically starting in the 19th round and they could all be the full-time closer, or main ninth inning pitcher, for their respective teams this whole year or at least for half the year. Taking stabs at backend bullpen arms is a great way to utilize the later rounds while still maximizing the offense and stable of starting pitchers that are on your roster.

Using the strategies laid out above can help you finish your drafts strong and feel confident in the completeness of the roster you’ve put together. Are these fail-safe? Not necessarily because anything can happen during the course of a season but they will set you up for a good shot at success from the get go and reduce the likelihood you have to try and win those one or two waiver wire lottery tickets to really compete this season. Drafting with the full draft in mind is how the best fantasy baseball managers consistently win their leagues and keeping these strategies in mind can also help you improve the crop of players you’re selecting earlier in drafts, knowing what you have coming your way later on and not being panicked about it. You don’t just have to use one of these strategies and stick it, they work best in concert with one another and focus a few rounds on each of them to really round out and finalize your squad for the 2021 baseball season and set you up for a championship run.