If “best shape of his life” is the most overused cliché in fantasy baseball, then “sample-size” is the most overused excuse for player-performance evaluation. It doesn’t matter if you’re talking about a massive breakout performance or some a guy driving down I-40 and posting zeroes across the board for you; “sample-size” is the answer for everything…at least in April.
Think about it…
You: “Hey Howard, what do you think of Anthony Rizzo hitting just .182 here on April 15th?”
Me: “Not much. Look at the sample size. Dude’s had 42 plate appearances. You gotta give him some time.”
You: “Hey Howard, how sick is Mike Moustakas , batting .452 with eight home runs?”
Me: “Big fan, but it’s a small sample-size, so don’t expect this pace to keep up.”
You can insert any player’s name and any statistic you want, good or bad, and you’ll probably get the same answer, at least up until about mid-May. You may think it’s a cop-out, especially if you’ve got a guy surging like Tim Anderson did last year, swiping 10 bags in April, but it’s true. You need to give players a relatively longer look before you make assessments. You can get excited about a hot start or kick rocks over a cold one, but making any add/drop or trade decisions at this time is extremely dangerous.
For example…
Player A is batting just .205 with no home runs through the first two weeks of the season. The rest of your team is doing fairly well and you see Player B on waivers batting .385 with four dingers. You drop Player A, add Player B and watch as the calendar flips to May. Player A is now batting .240 with two home runs and Player B is batting .285 and stuck on the same four he had when you added him. Whoops.
How many of you have made this swap? Don’t be embarrassed. Raise your hand. We’ve all been guilty of this. Yes, even people who work in this industry. It’s a novice mistake and everyone learns the hard way. It’s why today we include Draft Guide articles like Patience is Your Best Friend
And this is why we immediately come back at your questions with the ol’ reliable “sample size” answer.
Think about it. If Player A crushes it for the first half of the season and comes out batting that same .205 to open the second half, your level of concern is minimal. First of all, his first-half stats mask just how bad that .205 looks and your immediate thought is, “well he raked for the first three months of the season, so he’ll snap out of it.” You’re willing to give him a pass because three months’ worth of stats tells you a better story than two weeks does.
Think back to 2017 for a moment. Imagine if Aaron Judge opened the year the way he opened the second half that same season. How many people would have dismissed him as a strikeout-prone failure and dropped him immediately? The guy bats .329 with 30 home runs in the first half and then proceeds to hit .230 in July and .185 in August. Did anyone even think about dropping him in August? Of course not. You have to understand there’s a ton of ebb and flow in this game and players need a certain number of plate appearances or innings pitched to find their center.
How many at-bats? How many innings? I hate to invoke the snowflake metaphor, but every player truly is unique and some click sooner than others. But if you’re looking for a good rule of thumb to keep you from jumping off the ledge every April, here you go:
NOTE: How to read the charts below. If the number listed is 60 that doesn’t mean 60 total plate appearances, that means 60 plate appearances in which that event ended (i.e. the 60 listed for strikeout rate means there needs to be 60 strikeouts in place before you can read too much into the result).
OFFENSE
Event | Plate Appearances/Balls In Play |
Strikeout rate | 60 PA |
Walk rate | 120 PA |
Homer to Fly Ball rate | 60 PA |
Homer rate | 175 BIP |
Ground Ball rate | 80 BIP |
Fly Ball rate | 80 BIP |
Line Drive rate | 700 BIP |
BABIP | 800 BIP |
PITCHING
Event | Batters Faced/Balls In Play |
Strikeout rate | 70 BF |
Walk rate | 175 BF |
Extra Base Hit rate | 1500 BF |
Homer Rate | 1300 BF |
Ground Ball rate | 80 BIP |
Fly Ball rate | 80 BIP |
Line Drive rate | 700 BIP |
BABIP | 2000 BIP |
Again, these are rough estimates, not the gospel.
And if you do find yourself struggling with decisions as to what you should believe and what you shouldn’t, looking at past big-league seasons is a must. We have witnessed numerous examples of players who perform well in April and turn into dying quails once the calendar flips to May. Remember when everyone was all-in on the resurgence of Jed Lowrie back in 2018? The guy had six home runs with 27 RBI in April and people were treating him like the Fountain of Youth was a real thing and suddenly at 34 years old, he regained his boyish stride. Even just a cursory glance at his past years in both the majors and minors would have set you straight.
For veteran players, a guy with at least three years’ experience tends to give you a better idea as to who he really is as a player. You can look at career averages for BABIP, strikeout and walk rates and ISO to understand if he’s playing over his head or even under. Sure, you’ve got your exceptions -- your late-bloomers -- like Whit Merrifield and Tommy Pham , but overall, three-year averages (another article that will be coming out soon here in the Draft Guide), work as solid sample sizes. Rookies and second-year players obviously don’t have the track record you’d like, but with a full understanding of minor league totals should certainly help you figure some things out.
So the next time you get worked up about a hot start or someone comes looking to trade for your struggling superstar in the month of April, don’t get too upset when the response to your question from me is a simple two-word answer – sample size.