Don't Depend on Rookies

This spring names like Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Dansby Swanson will be all the rage. We will spend all spring extoling their talents, their potential to be fantasy difference makers and peeps will be salivating at the thought of adding one of them on draft day. However, recent history is strongly suggestive that if you have the expectation that any rookie will be anything other than a replacement level player in the fantasy game that you will be disappointed.

This whole deal is one of my biggest bugaboos. I spend all preseason trying to talk down the outlook of rookies. I try to warn folks away from counting on rookies. I try to warn folks not to spend too much $ or too early a draft pick on a player who isn’t established. I usually fail to make much of a dent there. Why? Because for every Corey Seager or Trea Turner folks forget the failures of guys like Hector Oliver and Jose Berrios. For every Trevor Story folks forget that even hot starting rookies, guys like Nomar Mazara, often end the year kinda being just a guy in the fantasy game. So, let me try one more time.

My general advice with rookie is as follows.

1 – Never draft a rookie in the first five rounds (it’s up to you if you want to burn an early fantasy selection on a “rookie” who really isn’t, one of those 26 year olds from another country).

2 – I wouldn’t tell anyone it’s a good idea to draft a player in his first season in the first 10 rounds of a fantasy draft in anything other than a keeper league.

3 – It’s fine to spend a 24^th round selection on a rookie. It’s fine to spend $6 of your $260 on a rookie. But you have to be smart about how you invest your resources. At the right time, at the right cost, you can let er’ rip with a rookie. The right time for that expenditure is at a moderate cost. It’s not early or for big dollars. It just doesn’t work when you invest heavily in rookies (we will discuss this fact below). There is so much uncertainty for young players – playing time, splits, performance, mental aspect of the game, how they handle pressure/traveling/lifestyle – that it makes very little sense to think of rookies as a player you will be able to count on. As a luxury? Absolutely do that. As a player, you are needing to come through? Don’t do that.

4 – I will often see folks who take shots on 2-4 rookies on their club. That’s simply too much exposure to the first year fellas. Two rookies would be my max, but even then it’s based on a myriad of factors, not the least of which is the size of your league. If you’re in a 15-team mixed league taking a shot on rookies is way more advisable that doing so in a 10-team league. The thinner the league, the less you should be looking to first year players.

5 – Rookies are called up more frequently than they used to be, and earlier than they used to be in terms of the age on their birth certificates. This fact should be factored in to how you handle rookies. Point being, if a young player fails don’t be afraid to move on. There will be another young player being called up for playing time in no time.

6 – Note that the majority of what was written above refers to draft season. Once we get in-season the rules do change a bit tilting to rookies. However, you still need to be careful to avoid overspending in a trade while being cautious not to blow your FAAB on a minor leaguer turned big leaguer.

THE STUDY

Let’s take a quick look at the past four seasons of rookies. These were, generally speaking, the top-20 players at the beginning of each season that were thought to have a strong chance to contribute in the fantasy game. As you will see the elite young talents usually fail in their first season. It’s just a fact.

Hit (a fantasy performer or note), Pass (replacement level stuff) and Miss (it’s obvious what this one means).

Of the 20 total rookies:

Five Hit. Three Passed. Twelve Missed

Let’s look back to 2015.

Of the 20 total rookies:

Five Hit. Four Passed. Eleven Missed

What about 2014?

Of the 20 total rookies:

Two Hit. Five Passed. Thirteen Missed

Finally, 2013.

Of the 20 total rookies:

Three Hit. Four Passed. Thirteen Missed

Let’s total everything up.

TOTALS

Over the last four years, the top-20 rookies each year, lead us to a total of 80 players in this very cursory study of first year players. Of that list of 80 players...

15 HIT

16 PASSED

49 MISSED

To say it another way.

Over the last four years the top-20 options have returned a “hit,” i.e. a truly legitimate fantasy season, 18.8 percent of the time. Those rookies that were solid, replacement level types, were 20.0 percent of the players. As for those that missed, that group encapsulates  61.3 percent of the efforts. To say it another way…

61.3 percent of the top level rookies, the last four years, have failed to meet even a modest level pf expectation. Moreover, more than 81 percent of the top-20 rookies, the last four seasons, have failed to produce a truly relevant fantasy season.

We can all point to the first timers that hit, the guys that won us championships in the fantasy game, but the fact is that the majority of the time the players that step on the field for the first time simply fail to be the player we think they will be.

I know no one is listening... but I will continue to try and bring sanity to the rookie situation.