2016 NFL Coaching Breakdowns

Every year I say it and every year I am flabbergasted by the lack of attention and notice that head coaches, coordinators and offensive and defensive systems get amongst fantasy football players. I will put it to you this way: Look at an NFL Team as you would a movie. A movie could have every famous actor and actress that you could imagine, but if the script is a piece of garbage then so too is that movie. Every team in the NFL uses a script. It is called a playbook.  If the playbook is sound and it suits the personnel taking part in its development well, the chances for success are high. But if you try and take Adam Sandler and put him in "The King's Speech," chances are it is going to fail. 

Head coaches are the directors of the film. They are the ones who build a staff, implement the systems and choose the actors who will bring their ideas to life. If a director doesn’t have a proper script, a vision of what they wish to see and a cast who will fulfill that prophecy the film is doomed to fail. 

Football is one of the only sports where it isn’t just about God given ability or even pure talent. Every player that steps out onto an NFL field is a historically amazing athlete. But if they don’t have a good script, good directors and aren’t a good fit with the rest of the cast, they just aren’t going to work out for the team or for your fantasy squad. 

With this in mind let’s take a closer look at each NFL teams coaching staff and see which tickets we’ll be purchasing this season. 

***A few notes about the breakdown. Each number you see is where that particular coach’s unit ranked in the NFL that season. Certain coaches that did not have play calling responsibilities were absolved from this list. Only the head coach and offensive play callers warrant consideration in fantasy football unless otherwise noted.***

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach – Bruce Arians (4^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Harold Goodwin (4^th Year)

Defensive Coordinator – James Bettcher (2^nd Year)

Offensive System: Air Coryell

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Arians runs the offense and has a pass-heavy playbook that results in good numbers for his QB’s. Legendary offensive coordinator Tom Moore is the assistant coach and basically the passing game coordinator. Harold Goodwin is more of an offensive line coach than true offensive coordinator. The Cardinals believe in a power run game setup to complement their wide-open passing attack. The Bruce Arians/Tom Moore way involves the QB having complete control of where he wants to deliver the football within the route tree. When you have a QB that changes his mind more often than directions the wind blows this leads to some major production fluctuations among the wide receivers.

The good news normally for fantasy owners is that Arians has preferred to utilize one RB as the main ball carrier. Last year was a great example of this. Despite significantly out producing Chris Johnson on the field, David Johnson was held to a backup and goal line role until an injury to CJ2K opened the door. This year, expect David Johnson to be the lead dog and Chris to play a backup or complementary role within the Cardinals' offense.

Players That Fit The System: Carson Palmer, David Johnson, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: It was unclear how the loss of Todd Bowles would affect the Cardinals' defense going into last season but they did not disappoint. The aggressive young James Bettcher proved to be a pass rush strategist and wizard in getting the most out of his linebackers. The Cardinals held opponents to significantly less yardage and created more turnovers than they ever did under Todd Bowles. This is a good scheme especially for fantasy where you have a great collection of players for DST and some of the best IDP players in the league.

Players That Fit The System – Tyrann Mathieu, Deone Bucannon, Calais Campbell

Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach – Dan Quinn (2^nd Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Kyle Shanahan (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Richard Smith (2^nd Year)

Offensive System: West Coast Offense

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: I told you in this space last year that Dan Quinn brought in Kyle Shanahan to run the offense and would have very little to do with that side of the ball. That is exactly what happened. I also said that Shanahan’s cut blocking run system was one of, if not the best in the NFL. Thus, this would be a great running game and that is exactly what happened. The Falcons took great measures to improve their offensive line this offseason and that means more big things for this running game. 

But as you will notice from the above breakdown, the Falcons did throw the ball a lot in 2015. They ranked in the top 10 in both pass attempts and pass yardage last year and that opened up another viable WR spot for fantasy purposes. Leonard Hankerson had a very solid run in the early part of last season before getting injured and falling out of favor with the coaching staff.

Players That Fit The System: Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu

Defensive System: 4-3 With LEO Pass Rush

Defense Breakdown: The former Seahawks defensive gurus Dan Quinn and Richard Smith have now put together two very good drafts in back-to-back seasons and have this Falcons defense on the verge of mediocracy. This staff believes in building an outstanding secondary that can cover the entire route tree, take the ball away from receivers and make tackles in the open field. Thus, these are great defensive backs to target in your IDP leagues this season. 

Players That Fit The System – Keanu Neal, Vic Beasley, De’Vondre Campbell

Baltimore Ravens

Head Coach – John Harbaugh (9^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Marc Trestman (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Dean Pees (5^th Year)

Offensive System: West Coast Offense

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: John Harbaugh is a fine assessor of talent but does not have a set system of his own on either side of the football. But Harbaugh has benefitted from an outstanding group of coordinators over the years, including six who have served as head coaches in Rex Ryan, Chuck Pagano, Cam Cameron, Gary Kubiak, Hue Jackson, Jim Caldwell and now Marc Trestman.

Trestman is more comfortable running a more open spread type of offense. But Harbaugh wanted to build on the success the team had under Gary Kubiak in 2014 and thus really placed the shackles on him last season. The offseason talk is that the Ravens will allow more of Trestman’s style into the playbook this season which would be very good news for the fantasy values of Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Kamar Aiken and the entire Ravens passing game. They kept the zone blocking or stretch zone running system which fits presumable starting RB Justin Forsett well.

Players That Fit The System: Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: Dean Pees is a turnover guru who insists on his defenses taking the ball away and scoring once they do. They preach aggressiveness and accountability in Baltimore but this style worked much better when there were stars such as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to lead it. The Ravens struggled in stopping the passing game last year and will have to both cover and rush the passer better in 2016. The good thing for fantasy owners is the Ravens are a team that can have a big week with their DST because they create turnovers and have players who can take it back to the house.

It should also be noted that special teams coordinator Jerry Rosburg is a master in creating blocking schemes that often result in long returns. He is one of the better ST coaches in the league and the Ravens are known to pull off a few special teams trick plays each season. These usually have a very positive impact in DST fantasy scoring.

Players That Fit The System – Terrell Suggs, Kamalei Correa, Eric Weddle

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach – Rex Ryan (2^nd Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Greg Roman (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Dennis Thurman (2^nd Year)

Offensive System: West Coast Offense

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Rex Ryan is a good leader and head football coach. The problem with him is that he allows too many off the field distractions to take away from his ability to identify talent and build a scheme. Greg Roman is a very underrated offensive coordinator and needs to be in the discussion of best running game providers in the NFL.

Roman has developed his own offensive style which basically takes the best parts of the power/counter/trap running game along with a spread offense passing game and combines them into a zone-read option. This system creates headaches for defensive coordinators and personnel alike. It is extremely difficult for opposing defenses to solve what the goal of each play really is and to have the proper personnel on the field for it.

Both Ryan and Roman signed off on the very aggressive move of promoting Tyrod Taylor to the QB1 spot last year and the move paid off gangbusters. Taylor fits what Roman wants to do perfectly and when these stars align between player and offensive coordinator, great things happen for fantasy football. The Bills will run the heck out of the football and as we saw last year, it really doesn’t matter if it is LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams or Mike Gillislee running the football for them.

Players That Fit The System: Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Jonathan Williams

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: The defense is Rex Ryan’s baby with Dennis Thurman serving more as a defensive backs coach. This defensive style features a strong focus on pass rush and Ryan is a master at designing blitz packages and disguises. The infusion of young talent on this side of the ball should pay immediate dividends for the Bills. Rookies Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland and Adolphus Washington should play immediately for Buffalo and are likely among the next wave of IDP stars that both Ryan and Thurman have created.

Players That Fit The System – Stephon Gilmore, Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Reggie Ragland

Carolina Panthers

Head Coach – Ron Rivera (6^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Mike Shula (4^th Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Sean McDermott (6^th Year)

Offensive System: Erhardt-Perkins Offense

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: One Super Bowl appearance is not enough to disguise the fact that Mike Shula is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the entire NFL. He is so formulaic and simple minded it is retarding the growth of Cam Newton. When you have a weapon like Newton, you must build a system around him to allow his natural skills to fit the goal of the offense. Newton should be playing in a style of offense that provides him numerous read options and shorter quick pass plays. Instead, they run a very simplified offense that is easy to learn and operate. This is why you will see Cam bored at certain points in the season. Even though the Panthers tried to have more read-options last year they still only featured it 7 percent of the time despite having the single biggest weapon in the history of the NFL at their disposal.

The focus of the Carolina offense is a ball control philosophy that waits for the defense to put them in position to win. This hurts Cam Newton’s fantasy value quite a bit because he could be so much more in another style of offense. Now, Cam is still an elite level fantasy QB because of his ability to run over and around even the best LB’s in the league. But he has made great strides in his ability to keep the defense honest and make all the throws. He is such a weapon that it’s impossible to contain his fantasy production. But please keep in mind that this simple offense under Shula will put a lid on the ultimate success that Cam and the Panthers offense has.

Players That Fit The System: Greg Olsen, Jonathan Stewart

Defensive System: 4-3

Defense Breakdown: Ron Rivera and Sean McDermott have built one of the best young defenses in the NFL. On top of the skill, they scheme as well as anybody and maximize the use of their linebackers like few other teams. Linebackers in the Panthers' system need to be able to both rush the passer and also drop back into coverage to disrupt passing zones. This take great pressure off of their CB’s and safeties which was one reason why they didn’t want to pay the freight for Josh Norman this offseason. This is a great system for IDP league formats in which LB’s will rack up points on tackles, sacks and turnovers.

Players That Fit The System – Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, Kawaan Short, Shaq Thompson

Chicago Bears

Head Coach – John Fox (2^nd Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Dowell Loggains (1^st Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Vic Fangio (2^nd Year)

Offensive System: Erhardt-Perkins

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: John Fox doesn’t involve himself much in the offensive side of the ball. He habitually trusts his offensive coordinator to manage and execute the offense. Last year’s offensive coordinator Adam Gase is the new head coach in Miami which leaves Dowell Loggains in charge of the Bears' offense. Loggains has spent the past two seasons as a QB coach and last called plays back in Tennessee in 2013. He has an absolutely horrible track record of developing QB’s, including ruining the careers of Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker.

The Bears' offense will likely be even more conservative this season as it was in this coaching regime's first season. That will mean more work for each of the RB’s, including fifth round pick Jordan Howard who will likely carve out a role. The Bears have a good amount of offensive firepower with Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. But the shackles of Loggains' system will limit their fantasy output this season.

The important thing here is to identify which role these RB’s will have in 2016. Jeremy Langford, Howard, Ka’Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers will all be battling for an identity within the offense. It’s unlikely that any of them, however, will be a regular fantasy contributor this season.

Players That Fit The System: Jeremy Langford, Jordan Howard, Zach Miller

Defensive System: 3-4 (4-0-4 Front)

Defense Breakdown: It’s going to be difficult for offenses to pick up what the Bears' defense is going to be putting down early on in the season. This scheme is as complicated as any in football and that usually leads to very successful defensive units. John Fox is a traditional 4-3 defensive setup guy but he has migrated into some 3-4 sets late in his time in Denver. He went out and hired a 3-4 guru in Vic Fangio who likes to use hybrid setups that fool the QB -- especially in his coverages.

The Bears are going to win or lose based on the success of their defense. They went out this offseason and acquired several key components that should help a unit that had become a laughing stock over the past few seasons. Their LB corps features three guys who can put their hand in the dirt on the line of scrimmage or drop back into coverage. This is great for IDP leagues because you can get some real cheap players like Pernell McPhee or Leonard Floyd who can be a source of tackles, sacks and turnovers for you on a weekly basis.  

Players That Fit The System – Danny Trevathan, Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Leonard Floyd, Jonathan Bullard

Cincinnati Bengals

Head Coach – Marvin Lewis (14^th Season)

Offensive Coordinator – Ken Zampese (1^st Season)

Defensive Coordinator – Paul Guenther (3^rd Season)

Offensive System: West Coast Offense

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: The Bengals have lost a lot of coaching talent over the past few seasons with Hue Jackson being the latest casualty as he takes over the Cleveland Browns head coaching job. Ken Zampese assumes the role as offensive coordinator and he will try to emulate a foundation that has been passed on between Bob Bratkowski, Jay Gruden and Hue Jackson.

Zampese, of course, is the son of legendary offensive guru Ernie Zampese who is widely regarded as one of the best passing game architects ever. The elder Zampese was the assistant of Don Coryell and the two together created the pass-heavy system that is today referred to as “Air Coryell.” I have to believe that Ken Zampese has at least a little of his father’s offensive blood in him. So even if the Bengals try and run a similar west coast offense than they have over the past decade, I do see this system changing in the years to come. This means that I would put a little more stock on the passing game here in Cincinnati for keeper and dynasty league formats. In 2017, it very likely may be an “Air Coryell” system here in Cincinnati.

Although QB Andy Dalton thrived under Hue Jackson in his run-heavy system, Zampese is more of a passing game guy than his predecessor. More passing attempts will improve Dalton’s raw fantasy numbers but will most likely effect his efficiency. What this all means is that Dalton is unlikely to fall too far down the QB scoring leader board under his new offensive coordinator.

Players That Fit The System: Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard

Defensive System: 4-3

Defense Breakdown: Paul Guenther enjoyed more success in his second season as the Bengals DC than he did in his first. But he still hasn’t solved a major issue his system has in regards to coverage designs in three and four WR sets. The Bengals have been fortunate that the teams in their division haven’t had the personnel to really make them pay when their DB’s are thinned out, but when you see the offseason additions the Browns and Ravens have made you have to believe they are aware.

The Bengals' defensive line with a healthy Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap is next to impossible to run against. This side of the ball is loaded with talent but these guys are starting to get older and it is not a deep squad. Injuries could completely derail what is otherwise a likely top five NFL defense.

Players That Fit The System – Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, Adam Jones

Cleveland Browns

Head Coach – Hue Jackson (1^st Year)

Offensive Coordinator – None

Defensive Coordinator – Ray Horton (1^st Year)

Offensive System: West Coast

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Hue Jackson has been saddled with the impossible task of trying to rescue the Cleveland Browns from complete obscurity. While the mountain is high, I do believe that Jackson is exactly the kind of coach the team needs to get back on track. Jackson is a leader of men and a guy who is a great talent evaluator and offensive play caller.

He is going to install his tried and true west coach blend offense that relies much more on the running game than traditional west coast setups. Jackson thrives in play design where he builds blocking schemes that result in his offense having a favorable matchup on every play. What this means in a nutshell is that there will be more blockers to a certain side or quadrant of the field than the defense can account for. So, you’ll see more production out of even the most mediocre of running backs than in a normal system. You’ll also notice a fascination with WR’s and TE’s that can block.

Jackson will serve as his own offensive coordinator, a risk that has doomed many head coaches in the past. But he did bring over veteran offensive coordinator Al Saunders who has built some of the better passing offenses in NFL history. Saunders will coordinate the passing game for the most part and try to find throws that Robert Griffin III can make. Jackson also appointed former Colts OC Pep Hamilton as the associate head coach which means he will likely have much influence on that side of the ball.

Players That Fit The System: Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Corey Coleman

Defensive System: Multi Front (Mostly 3-4 Base)

Defense Breakdown: Ray Horton was the Browns' defensive coordinator back in 2013 and did a pretty good job. Although that was back when he had D’Qwell Jackson and Joe Haden in their prime. No such luck this time around, but Horton is a very innovative defensive mind that will squeeze the most out of whatever personnel he is given. What Horton’s defense does well is change formations on a dime. They will often line up in a traditional 3-4 set but then as the offense is making their reads, change out to a 4-3 or even 5-2 setup. Ideally he wants players who can do a multitude of things such as LB’s who can rush the passer and drop back in coverage. He also expects his DB’s to be proactive in the run game. This will be a huge problem with his current personnel in Cleveland.

Players That Fit The System – Emmanuel Ogbah, Carl Nassib, Paul Kruger

Dallas Cowboys

Head Coach – Jason Garrett (6^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Scott Linehan (3^rd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Rod Marinelli (3^rd Year)

Offensive System: Air Coryell

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: The Cowboys' offensive struggles last year were not a fault of the coaches. But it is curious that they continue to play at such a sluggish pace that they really allow these poor NFC East defenses to keep up with them by adjusting at the line of scrimmage.

What Scott Linehan does is recognize what the strengths are of his team and implements plays, tempo and play calling that maximize that productivity. He is an experienced offensive mind and has earned more of Jason Garrett’s trust over the last three years.

The Cowboys are going to run the football and will do so effectively no matter which player is carrying the football. They spent their first round pick ensuring that they will be able to run the football by grabbing the best RB in the draft in Ezekiel Elliott. They also signed Alfred Morris to ensure there is no loss of productivity even if injuries occur. The Cowboys are the chalk to lead the league in rushing behind an outstanding offensive line. But they will be able to regain their passing prowess as long as Tony Romo and Dez Bryant stay healthy.

Players That Fit The System:  Ezekiel Elliott, Darren McFadden, Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

Defensive System: 4-3

Defense Breakdown: Rod Marinelli is a defensive line specialist. He is good at developing the technique needed to get through and around blockers en route to the quarterback. His system features more rotations among the defensive line as well which helps keep the main guys fresh to finish out games which is when they are needed the most. The Cowboys have taken some major hits along the defensive line this offseason and thus Marineli’s system will be tested to its core to find and develop new pass rushers.

Players That Fit The System – Cedric Thornton, Sean Lee, Charles Tapper

Denver Broncos

Head Coach – Gary Kubiak (2^nd Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Rick Dennison (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Wade Phillips (2^nd Year)

Offensive System: West Coast

Volume Report

Offense Breakdown: Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison have worked together for many years dating back to their days with the Broncos back in the late 90’s. Their reunion in Denver last season was a monumental success despite an unforeseen QB controversy. This coaching staff was hired under the direction that they work with Peyton Manning who has served as his own offensive coordinator for most of his career. It was a very uneasy transition for all parties concerned but nevertheless resulted in a Super Bowl title.

Kubiak calls the plays while Dennison is in charge of running the patented cut-block system along the offensive line. This system has generated an incredible amount of fantasy production dating back to Terrell Davis, Orlandis Gary and Mike Anderson in the mid-to-late 1990’s. Understand that this Broncos offense will get back to a more traditional Kubiak/Dennison style which revolves around running the football. C.J. Anderson is in line to be a big comeback performer in terms of fantasy performance in 2016.

Although the passing offense will be much simpler this season, the Broncos have two extremely talented wide receivers that can create both before and after the catch. The volume of this passing offense will be lost but the output should still be strong. Mark Sanchez is capable of making the throws that he needs to in order to get these talented receivers the football. Do not overlook this fact.

Players That Fit The System: C.J. Anderson, DeVontate Booker, Emmanuel Sanders

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: Wade Phillips brought his tried and true 3-4 back to the Mile High City last season and he smashed the world with it. Phillips' system is unique in that he runs a one gap style which will have the LB’s such as DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller rushing the line of scrimmage much more often. As we all know, this resulted in huge seasons for both of them. The Broncos' biggest question mark on the defensive side of the ball is who will pick up for the departed Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson? Fortunately, Wade Phillips remains and he has proven that his scheme makes great players and not the other way around. 

Players That Fit The System: DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller, Aqib Talib

Detroit Lions

Head Coach – Jim Caldwell (3^rd Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Jim Bob Cooter (1^st Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Teryl Austin (2^nd Year)

Offensive System: Air Coryell

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Jim Caldwell is not an X’s and O’s type of coach that brings any great scheme or new ideas to the table. He is a strong, steady leader who identifies with his players and becomes a mentor to them on and off the field. If you are one of those people who give heaping amounts of credit to former Indianapolis offensive coaches, then just stop reading here because you don’t understand football. Sorry but that is just the hard truth. Some may point to Caldwell’s run as the Ravens' offensive coordinator during their Super Bowl run in 2012. Again, this guy got incredibly lucky to be promoted when he was and to witness everything from defensive backs falling down to the power going out at the Superdome. As a head football coach, Jim Caldwell is a placeholder. He had success in his first year in Detroit but the team fell apart last year. From a fantasy perspective he is a complete zero as well.

The man who has the unenviable task of saving Caldwell’s job is new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. Jim Bob was an assistant with the Broncos in their record setting season of 2013. He also spent time with the Saints coaching Drew Brees. Thus, he’s been around enough elite talent to know how to utilize it. But his style is pass happy which is much closer to that of fired OC Joe Lombardi than it is to what Caldwell wants.

What Cooter plans to do is to push the pace of the Lions' offense as well as be aggressive down the field. He will continue the Lions' signature of throwing the football but will try to attack more down the field. His offense also rotates personnel more which means more RB’s and WR’s will have an opportunity to make an impact. The key for fantasy is to not invest in these role players. We cannot sustain a winning season on predicting when guys like Theo Riddick and Brandon Pettigrew will be useful.

Players That Fit The System: Matt Stafford, Golden Tate, Theo Riddick

Defensive System: 4-3

Defense Breakdown: Teryl Austin is a well-respected defensive mind that specializes on defensive back development. This is a very important aspect to Austin’s ability being in a division that features some of the best passing games in the NFL. The better his DB’s cover the better this underrated pass rush of Ziggy Ansah and Haloti Ngata will produce.

Players That Fit The System – Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay, Quandre Diggs

Green Bay Packers

Head Coach – Mike McCarthy (10^th Year)

Associate Head Coach/Offense – Tom Clements (5^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Edgar Bennett (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Dom Capers (8^th Year)

Offensive System: West Coast

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: So the deal is that Mike McCarthy was bummed out that more of his assistant coaches weren’t getting looked at for many head coaching vacancies and thus decided to change things up. He promoted Tom Clements to Associate Head Coach/Offense and has given him play calling duties on game days as well. I said in this space last season that I was “freaked out” by this. Sure enough, McCarthy had to take back play calling duties for the final four games of the regular season.

When you have a successful formula as the Packers do on offense, it doesn’t make sense to shake it up with a job that is of such importance as play calling is. The company line going into 2016 is that Clements will once again call the offensive plays but with a better understanding of what McCarthy would like to do. The Packers have ran the ball much more than other seemingly high-powered offenses because once they get a lead they like to sit on the clock and the ball. This limits the upside of Aaron Rodgers and his receivers. Over the years he’s been able to overcome this, but it is definitely worth noting especially if you think that Green Bay will be playing with a lead most of 2016.

Players That Fit The System: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: Dom Capers is one of the best defensive minds in the league and handles everything from personnel decisions to play calling on the defensive side. Capers likes to put pressure on the QB and his defense is always on constant attack mode. This leads to plenty of sacks and turnovers which make the Packers a pretty consistent fantasy defense. The aggressiveness of Dom Capers' blitz heavy scheme does leave them vulnerable to the big play at times. The Packers have curiously loaded up on defensive backs in the draft the past few years which I am sure is a response to giving up too many big plays.

Players That Fit The System – Clay Matthews, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Quinten Rollins

Houston Texans

Head Coach – Bill O’Brien (3^rd Year)

Offensive Coordinator – George Godsey (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Romeo Crennel (3^rd Year)

Offensive System: Spread

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Bill O’Brien is at a crossroads of his tenure with the Texans. Coming off of a division title despite a 9-7 record, it can only go up or down for the third-year head coach. O’Brien is a very controlling and Napolean-like presence in all aspects of the Texans' plans. The front office spent big bucks to fill some of the shortcomings from a year ago namely finding them a QB (Brock Osweiler) and a lead RB (Lamar Miller). Any regression in 2016 will be a direct reflection of O’Brien and his staff.

The Texans run a domesticated spread offense in that they will line up in all different sets so as to disguise the play from the defense. For instance, the Texans will line up with 2 TE’s on almost half of their plays, only to have one move into the backfield and the other split out wide. This is the style that O’Brien and Josh McDaniels established in New England, only the Patriots have it down to a science whereas the Texans seemed almost confused at times by their own playbook. When you have to cycle through QB’s like used Klenex, though, that is bound to be the result.

The idea is for Osweiler to come in and be the Texans' version of an early career Tom Brady. That is, control the offense, limit mistakes and allow one of the best defenses to win them ball games. The Texans play at a very quick pace which obviously results in a lot of offensive plays. This is great for fantasy purposes as Osweiler, Miller and DeAndre Hopkins are in a great spot to rack up fantasy numbers.

Players That Fit The System: Brock Osweiler, DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: Romeo Crennel proved last year that he is still one of the better defensive coordinators in the league. Everybody know that J.J. Watt is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL. But few understand that Crennel’s scheme was what has allowed him to get to the ball so darn often. Anybody who has watched what Crennel and his mentor Bill Belichick have done on defense over the past ten years knows that the 3-4 is just a base model for their defense. The fact is that they run an awful lot of 4-3 to match up with the ever increasing passing formations across the NFL these days. The system will be tested, though, early on as JJ Watt recovers from back surgery. They will need players like Jadeveon Clowney and Jeoffrey Pagan to step up and fill the void for however long it takes for Watt to get back to form.

Players That Fit The System – J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork, Johnathan Joseph

Indianapolis Colts

Head Coach – Chuck Pagano (5^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Rob Chudzinski (1^st Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Ted Monachino (1^st Year)

Offensive System: West Coast

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Last year in this space I wrote “We are a year away from Pep Hamilton being fired and a real offensive coordinator being brought in to take Andrew Luck to the next level. The guy who will likely replace Hamilton, in my opinion, is already on the Colts coaching staff and that is Rob Chudzinski.” What do you know? That is exactly what happened. Hamilton is out as is defensive coordinator Greg Manusky. Chuck Pagano was retained, however, and has assembled a whole new staff.

Rob Chudzinski will have complete control of the Colts' offense. This is good for the Colts and great for fantasy owners. Chudzinski is a master at involving the TE and with Coby Fleener in New Orleans and Dwayne Allen resigned to a big deal, we know who the beneficiary will be.

Chud is going to put this offense on the shoulders of Andrew Luck. The Colts will be among the league leaders in pass attempts and yardage. Assuming Luck stays healthy, he’ll be back to being a top five fantasy performer as well. Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief are going to be the big breakouts of this system so target them in all of your drafts. 

Players That Fit The System: Andrew Luck, Dwayne Allen, Donte Moncrief

Defensive System: 3-4

Defense Breakdown: The Colts went out and hired longtime Ravens defensive coach Ted Monachino as their new defensive coordinator. Monachino has been the Ravens' linebackers coach for a years having mentored the likes of Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and CJ Mosley. He’s going to keep the 3-4 base setup but will also feature multiple fronts depending on the situation. This should help spark a very poor pass rush over the last few years. There are very few interesting IDP players here other than D’Qwell Jackson and Vontae Davis.

Players That Fit The System – D’Qwell Jackson, Nate Irving and Vontae Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars

Head Coach – Gus Bradley (4^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Greg Olson (2^nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Todd Wash (1^st Year)

Offensive System: Vanilla/West Coast

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Let’s not mix messages. Greg Olson is historically one of the worst offensive coordinators of all time. Last year was the most successful any of his units have ever been and most of that production was a result of a defense that was so bad that all the Jags could do was send Blake Bortles back and wing it. If anything, the Jags were wise to bring in assistants like Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett to help develop these young offensive players.

Gus Bradley stays out of the way when it comes to his offense. He chooses instead to let his offensive coordinator run that side of the ball and call all defensive plays. But as I said, Olson is among the least innovative coaches in the NFL.

The success of Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and the entire Jaguars offense last year is going to lead fantasy owners to chase after that production here in 2016. This will very likely be a big mistake. If you look at the final numbers and where the Jags ranked in key categories last year, you will notice a complete lack of a running game and only a mediocre offensive output outside of fantasy. This all stems from the defense being so bad they were playing catch up most of last season. Assuming this defense improves and the Jags dedicate themselves to running the football, it would take a monumental effort out of Bortles and company to even match their 2015 production in fantasy football. 

Players That Fit The System: Allen Robinson, Blake Bortles, Chris Ivory

Defensive System: 4-3

Defense Breakdown: It’s do or die for Bradley and he has to know that coming into this season. Bob Babich is finally out as defensive coordinator and in is Mike Dempsey's (for all of you SXM listeners) look alike Todd Wash. Wash and Bradley have been together a long time dating back to their time at North Dakota State back in the early 2000’s. So if they are going to fail, they will go down together.

Bradley refuses to give up on the idea of building the Seahawks' defense here in northern Florida despite not having the horses in the secondary to even approach this feat. But an interesting thing happened in the draft this year. Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey fell to them with the fifth pick then they were able to land projected first round LB Myles Jack in the second round as well. Suddenly, with the additions of DE Malik Jackson and S Tashaun Gipson in free agency and the return of last year's first round pick in DE Dante Fowler, this unit appears to be among the more talented defenses in the AFC. A player like Ramsey makes this entire system come together because if the CB’s can handle man-to-man coverage it frees the LB’s and safeties up to execute the complex blitz packages that Bradley and Wash want to do.

Players That Fit The System – Jalen Ramsey, Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson

Kansas City Chiefs

Head Coach – Andy Reid (4^th Year)

Offensive Coordinator – Brad Childress (1^st Year)

Defensive Coordinator – Bob Sutton (4^th Year)

Offensive System: West Coast

Volume Report (Values refer to NFL rank in each category)

Offense Breakdown: Andy Reid’s offense has ranked in the top half of the NFL in all but four of his 17 seasons as a head coach in the NFL. Reid runs a modern version of a balanced west coast system. His system is built around a dynamic all-purpose RB and a QB that limits mistakes and moves the chains. With those two elements in place and an offensive line that creates room, the Chiefs' offense will move the ball. Jamaal Charles is the focus of this offense and as long as he stays healthy he’ll be a top five RB in fantasy football.

With Doug Pederson moving on to become the head coach in Philadelphia, longtime Reid assistant and former Vikings head coach Brad Childress will step in to run the offense. Childress has spent the last few seasons being the Chiefs' spread game analyst. The Chiefs under Andy Reid’s direction have taken a liking to the analytical side of the game. They have stat nerd Mike Frazier and sports science guru Ryan Reynolds leading the analytics department.

This kind of innovative coaching will allow the Chiefs to maximize production out of their players. We saw it translate last season, in fact, as guys like Alex Smith, Jeremy Maclin, Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson each had amazing production despite a lack of volume or skill. This will make them better fantasy players despite our common perception that only those exceptional athletes or large volume players tend to produce in the fantasy game.