(-2000) EDward Gaming v eStar Gaming (+900)

 (+290) LNG v JD Gaming (-450)

(-110) Afreeca Freecs v Nongshim RedForce (-120)

(-250) T1 v DRX (+185)

 

What a set of games on Thursday morning. We see Gen.G pull off the upset I warned about and BLG take Team WE the distance. These races are becoming closer and closer while teams continue to eye a trip to Iceland for the mid-season invitational as their prize. Who rises? Who falls? Let’s dive in and find out!

 

Game #1 EDward Gaming v eStar Gaming

Cann’s Pick: EDward Gaming

Cann’s Breakdown: This is where we need to see EDG platy a clean game. They have dropped matches to top teams like TES and RNG in the past two weeks. Even with these two losses, EDG is still within striking distance of first. I expect EDG to take care of business here but their drafting has been a little suspect as of late. Clean it up, play to your strengths in Viper and Scout and don’t let rat get online. Easy recipe for a quick 2-0.  

 

Game #2: LNG v JD Gaming

Cann’s Pick: JD Gaming

Cann’s Breakdown: This is a hard game to put my finger on and get a pulse. LNG was one of the best teams in the LPL but quickly fell from grace when they began to face harder teams. JDG has been really hit or miss over the course of this split as well. This series could go 2-1 either way but I think JDG has just had the better stretch as of late and gets my nod. 

 

Game #2: Afreeca Freecs v Nongshim RedForce

Cann’s Pick: Nongshim RedForce

Cann’s Breakdown: I really like NS here. While AF beat RedForce in their first meeting, NS is a different team at this point. They are more aggressive now and play late game team fights much better. 

 

Game #2: T1 v DRX

Cann’s Pick: DRX

Cann’s Breakdown: This is my upset of the slate. T1 has looked better in the last few matches but that only makes me more hesitant to pick them because of how much they like messing with their lineup. DRX has to bounce back from their 2-1 loss to NS to try and prevent themselves from slipping any further. DRX’s final two matches are against DWG and Gen.G so expect a sense of urgency with this match.  

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

 

Captain

 

Favorite: Viper (EDG: $12,300) The third highest kill amount among LPL bot laners (153) and a team kill share percentage of 36%. Viper is the core of EDG’s late game damage and the pick their team comps around him. ES has shown they cannot play the late game well and their bot laner (rat) has a KDA 3 less than Viper. Easy pick but you HAVE to hit on this pick to make it worth it. 

 

Value Pick: deokdam (NS: $11,100)

 

Top Lane

 

Favorite: Zoom (JDG: $6,600) Zoom is a sneaky good top laner. He plays safely in lane and works so well with Kanavi to secure towers and protecting towers in the early/mid game. He has 73 kills while the two top laners from LNG (M1kuya and Ale) have a combined 35 kills. He has been really diverse champ pool with Cho Gath, Lulu, Gnar, and Camille which shows how flexible he is to meet the team’s needs. 

 

Value Pick: Kingen (DRX: $5,600)

 

Jungle

 

Favorite: JieJie (EDG: $7,600) At first look, you may get baited into picking H4cker because he has more kills than JieJie (79 v 66). When you look at stats like deaths (JieJie- 51 v H4cker- 82), assists (JieJie- 225 v H4cker- 170), and gold differential (JieJie- +180 v H4cker- +4). JieJie does not play for the aggressive ganks or 1v1 fights in the jungle but instead plays around his team. Safe pick here but a bit pricey for a lower kill jungler.

 

Value Pick: Dread (AF: $6,600)

 

Mid Lane

 

Favorite: Scout (EDG: $7,800) Scout has the second highest kill amount with 106 and has a KDA of 5.3. Irma has about 40 less kills and a 3.0 KDA to compare. Scout has a gold differential of +200 at 10 minutes on average and looks for the 1 on 1 fight in lane. I think JieJie will come mid often and snowball hard into the late game.  

 

Value Pick: SOLKA (DRX: $6,200)

 

ADC

 

Favorite: Loken (JDG: $8,000) Statistically speaking there isn’t much of a difference between Loken and Light (LNG) with most of the different categories actually leaning towards Light. Now you may be asking, “Ed. Why would you suggest him then?” Simply put, JD Gaming is just performing better right now. They have beaten RNG, V5, and ES while dropping a series to FPX. LNG have gone 2-2 dropping games to RNG and EDG. This will be close, but I see JDG coming out on top. 

 

Value Pick: Teddy (T1: $7,600) NOTE! There are two possible bot laners for T1!

 

Support

 

Favorite: Keria (T1: $5,400) I will continue to ride with Keria as the best pick from T1 on a day to day basis. While his FPPG average hovers around 50, they come from two really poor series (one of which was admittedly DRX) but has also posted three different series with over 60 FPPG. He has 300 assists and both Teddy or Gumayusi have had statistically impressive splits which benefits Keria and his production. 

 

Value Pick: Kellin (NS: $5,200)

 

Team

 

Favorite: EDward Gaming ($6,000) EDG has staggering odds for a reason. I looked through every statistical category I could and there wasn’t a single one that eStar held an advantage. While EDG doesn’t have the most amazing stats across the board there are some gaps in performance that are worth noting between the teams. First is the gold difference at 15 minutes. EDG is at +665 (this is a decent number for an upper team) but ES is at -1062 which is abysmal by all accounts. EDG is securing the first three turrets at a 64% clip whereas ES is securing the first three turrets at a 13% clip. EDG has a baron control rate of 55% while ES is at sub 20%. This could be a very fast and very mismatched series for a Friday morning.  

 

Value Pick: DRX ($4,400)

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): deokdam ($11,100)

Alternate: BAO ($9,900)

Top: Zoom ($6,600)

Jungle: Peanut ($6,800)

Alternate: Dread ($6,600)
Mid: SOLKA ($6,200)

ADC: LokeN ($8,000)

Alternate: BAO ($6,600)

Support: Keria ($5,400)

Team: EDward Gaming ($6,000