(+110) eStar Gaming v LGD (-140)

(-1800) FunPlus Phoenix v ThunderTalk Gaming (+800)

(-155) KT Rolster v Liiv SANDBOX (+120)

(+135) Nongshim RedForce v DRX (-175)

 

We are racing towards the end of this split and approaching the Spring playoffs for all leagues. We see the standings beginning to show us who will be locking in (and being locked out) of playoffs but there are still some teams fighting for their playoff lives. Both KT Rolster and Nongshim RedForce are fighting for that 6th and final playoff spot so the LCK matches will definitely be games to play. 

 

Game #1 eStar Gaming v LGD

Cann’s Pick: eStar Gaming

 

Game #2: FunPlus Phoenix v ThunderTalk Gaming

Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix

 

Game #3: KT Rolster v Liiv SANDBOX

Cann’s Pick: KT Rolster

 

Game #4: Nongshim RedForce v DRX

Cann’s Pick: DRX

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

 

Captain

 

Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $12,300) Lwx has the second most kills in the LPL this split with 148 and a team kill share percentage of 32.8%. FPX does a great job focusing on getting through the laning phase and putting Lwx in positions to carry in the late game. Lwx is a true late game insurance policy for FPX and TT’s bot laner (SamD) is not performing at the same level and FPX has the chance to close the gap at the top of the table.

 

Value Pick: BAO (DRX: $11,100) BAO is 9 kills off of the leader in the LCK in kills (150) and he is 37% of all of DRX’s kills. Nongshim are a sneaky decent team, even with their 4-9 record but DRX looks to be picking up speed winning their last two series. In fact BAO (since their loss to HLE) has put up 101.7 FP and 77.5 FP in their last two and deokdam (NS bot laner) has posted scores of 30.4 FP and 89.7 in his last two series. NS is able to have explosive series but a strength of DRX is their ability to beat teams who are below them in the standings so I am expecting a DRX win today. 

 

Top Lane

 

Favorite: Nuguri (FPX: $6,400) While I do genuinely like Nuguri as a pick on his own but I have to admit that part of this pick is the fact that he is playing TT’s Chelizi. Chelizi has a 2.2 KDA and only 53 kills on the split. While Chelizi does have a positive gold differential (+31) it pales in comparison to the lead that Nuguri normally acquires for himself (+233). Nuguri wins lane and doesn’t mess it up in the late game and should be a safe pick up for points here.  

 

Value Pick: Summit (LSB: $5,800) Summit has been a good value pick now for a few slates. He is tied for second in the LCK for kills among top laners (73) and 23% of LSB’s kills. He is aggressive in nature and loves to be the center of scraps. This is a risky play with NS going up against KT Rolster who has a decent lineup in their own right but if you want to play on the inconsistency of KT, this is a great pick. 

 

Jungle

 

Favorite: Beichuan (FPX: $7,400) The fourth highest killing jungler in the LPL (96) and the second best KDA among that same group (5.4). I love how much he invades the enemy jungle which leads to his positive gold (+51) and experience (+196) at 10 minutes. He works well getting Lwx ahead and makes sure he moves around the map. Look for him to be aggressive against TT while his laners beat their opponents. 

 

Value Pick: H4cker (ES: $6,400) A lot of people are down on eStar, as they should be. But there is still a lot of value picking up ES players tomorrow. The top four kill leaders in this matchup are all from ES and H4cker is second on this list at 75 kills. He has a kill participation rate is up to almost 70%. With the kill gap between these two teams and the fact that LGD is just not proactive at all means ES players could really pay off. 

 

Mid Lane

 

Favorite: SOLKA (DRX: $7,200) The bulk of SOLKA’s points come from assists (216) which is third in the LCK for mid laners. DRX plays through BAO but don’t mistake that for SOLKA not having an impact. He has heavily relied on his Syndra and Orianna play to control the mid lane and provide the set up in teamfights for BAO to clean up. I like him into Bay who has no impact in the early game which will give SOLKA time to farm and get the gold he needs for teamfights. 

 

Value Pick: FATE (LSB: $7,000) FATE is the carry for LSB. Some of the pressure has been taken off of him since Prince has joined in the bot lane but widely speaking, success comes through this one singular player. He has almost a 77% team kill participation and has 83 total kills this split. KT continue to randoml;y cycle Dove into the lineup and even the majority starter (Ucal) has not had his best split. This is a gamble pick that you think at worst this goes three games if not being an upset on the day. 

 

ADC

 

Favorite: HyBriD (KT: $7,800) While his productivity has dipped from the beginning of the year, he still has a 3+ KDA. He has 138 kills and a team kill share percentage of 35%. He is extremely explosive with a 115 FP performance against HLE but he also has duds posting 30.4 in his last game. DRX isn’t overly aggressive in lane and usually waits to transition BAO into the late game which should give HyBriD opportunities to hopefully scale into the late game and pick up kills. 

 

Value Pick: rat (ES: $7,200) Just like the H4cker pick, eStar is undervalued here but in terms of raw points, they should perform on Friday morning. This split will be widely seen as a failure for eStar but there have been some silver linings for rat. He has 107 kills and 120 assists in his 30 games this split. He has a team kill participation rate of 69% which could translate into a low ownership pick for you. 

 

Support

 

Favorite: Crisp (FPX: $6,000) He supports Lwx and Lwx pops off in late game fights. Crisp is second in the LPL in assists (284) and is projected to break that 300 number in this series. He is slightly death prone (78) but he makes for it with his team kill participation of 68%. The gap between FPX and TT is pretty wide and the skill mismatch between Lwx/Crisp versus SamD/Teeen makes the cost with these picks well worth the investment. 

 

Value Pick: Becca (DRX: $5,400) I think Becca is a decent support. I was actually kind of surprised that he was as cheap as he was. He is fourth among supports in assists with 252 but does have the second most deaths at 116. I think in terms of what you get out of supports, you would trade those high assist numbers for however many deaths come along with it. 

 

Team

 

Favorite: DRX ($5,400) Being able to say that only DWG have better late game numbers than you should really be enough to lock up this pick as favorite. DRX is so hyperfocused on prepping before teamfights that they rarely get caught in bad situations. You will get the bulk of your team points on them taking late game turrets and barons which may worry you early on as they give up dragons but it pays off for them in the end. 

 

Value Pick: Liiv Sandbox ($4,600) I am marking this as my potential upset of the day. Liiv has looked significantly better after the break and are on par with most stats compared to KT. They have a better gold differential as a team at 15 minutes (-147 versus -698) and also better turret, herald, and dragon control numbers as well. This will most likely be another low ownership slot but could make the difference for you in your lobbies. 

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): BAO ($11,100)

Alternate: rat ($10,800)

Top: Summit ($5,800)

Jungle: Beichuan ($7,400)

Alternate: Pyosik ($7,000)
Mid: SOLKA ($7,200)

ADC: Lwx ($8,200)

Alternate: rat ($7,200)

Support: Becca ($5,8400)

Team: eStar ($4,800)