LNG v LGD

FunPlus Phoenix v Rare Atom

Royal Never Give Up v EDward Gaming

DWG Kia v Afreeca Freecs

T1 v KT Rolster

 

What an absolutely amazing slate for today. Great teams and even better matchups to watch on this Saturday morning. Which teams will continue to rise to the top and which will continue their slip? Can anyone challenge the likes of DWG Kia? Will T1 continue to mess with their lineups? Let’s dive in and take a look! 

 

Game #1 LNG v LGD

Cann’s Pick: LNG

 

Game #2: FunPlus Phoenix v Rare Atom

Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix

 

Game #2: Royal Never Give Up v EDward Gaming

Cann’s Pick: Royal Never Give Up

 

Game #2: DWG Kia v Afreeca Freecs

Cann’s Pick: DWG Kia

 

Game #2: T1 v KT Rolster

Cann’s Pick: KT Rolster

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

 

Captain

 

Favorite: Light (LNG: $12,300) Normally not seen as part of the top tier bot laners in the LPL but today he and LNG are facing the absolute bottom of the barrel in LGD. Light has 96 kills and 93 assists through 22 matches. The upside to this pick (and the reason for the high price) is that light almost exclusively performs against worse teams. In his last three series (TES, Rare Atom, and FPX) highest kill game was 4 and best KDA was 6. In his two series before that (ES and BLG) he has multiple 8 kill games and average KDA was 10. Look for BIG points here against LNG and their bot laner Kramer.

 

Value Pick: GALA (RNG: $11,100) This is my upset of the day. Feel free to go either way with EDG or RNG but I think the two teams have shown very different versions of themselves in this second half. In fact Viper was the long time kill leader in the LPL but that crown now belongs to GALA (146 v 125). Another benefit to this pick is that GALA is now up to a 37% team kill share percentage meaning resources and points go through GALA. EDG has shown a much slower playstyle and that plays just fine for RNG who also looks for those late game team fights to win their games.

 

Top Lane

 

Favorite: Nuguri (FPX: $6,200) Nuguri started so hot this split and has somewhat returned to earth. He has a 3.3 KDA and 138 assists (3rd highest among LPL top laners). A big upside to this Nuguri pick is that he just doesn’t lose lane. He is averaging a +294 gold differential at 10 minutes (1st among LPL top laners) and +179 experience differential at 10 minutes (2nd among LPL top laners). Cube doesn’t apply any pressure in lane which should mean Nuguri should have his way and get far enough ahead so he won’t die quickly in teamfights. 

 

Value Pick: Doran (KT: $5,600) I am a big fan of picking against T1 today. As a team they are so wildly inconsistent and generally are overvalued because of the names above the champions rather than the quality of their play. In three less games compared to T1’s two top laners (Zeus and Canna) combined Doran only has 6 less kills (70 total) and has 11 less deaths (83) than them. He has an average of almost 60 more gold at 10 minutes compared to Zeus and almost 300 more than Canna. KT has had their ups and downs but I have pretty consistently said Doran is a really bright spot for them.

 

Jungle

 

Favorite: Canyon (DWG: $7,400) This jungle pick comes with just a fraction of hesitation because he is facing the LCK kill leader for junglers in Dread (110) but he himself has 97 kills to his name. He has a team kill participation rate of 68% and holds leads in gold and experience as an average at 10 minutes. While the gap at jungle may not be huge (or even favored?), the team play gap is enormous. 

 

Value Pick: Wei (RNG: $6,600) A lot like the GALA pick, I think Wei is undervalued but could very well outperform his EDG counterpart. Wei has the highest average FPPG on the slate with 80.9 and He has a 71% team kill participation with 85 kills to his name alone. He has a 50% first blood participation rate which is second most in the LPL and means you should expect points early and often. 

 

Mid Lane

 

Favorite: icon (LNG: $7,600) Much like Light, this is a pick purely for the matchup. Icon has a pedestrian KDA (3.8) but a team kill participation rate of 75% which does lend itself to icon picking up so good points today. His opponent (Uniboy) has only 37 kills and 72 assists and is little to no threat to icon in the laning phase. These are safe points but you do run the risk in having lower kill numbers and higher assist numbers instead. 

 

Value Pick: Scout (EDG: $7,000) Scout is the LPL leader among mids in terms of kills with 81. Cryin (RNG) will have his hands full with Scout. He is aggressive in lane and looks for early opportunities to trade, kill, and get ahead. He has an average gold differential at 10 minutes of +241 versus Cryin with a +41. Scout has a team kill share just shy of 25% and will be one of the win conditions for EDG if they want to beat RNG.  

 

ADC

 

Favorite: Ghost (DWG: $8,000) It is hard to see Ghost on a slate and not instantly toss him into a lineup after his multi-pentakill performance from last week. He is one off of the LCK bot lane kill leader (142) and has a KDA of 5.7. While Ghost has a weaker laning phase because of his support (BeryL) spends most of his time roaming the map with Canyon, he absolutely takes over the late game. He has a team kill share rate of over 30% and a team death share of less than 15%. Afreeca Freecs hasn’t had the success with their bot lane of Bang and Lehends that they expected and DWG will take advantage of these weaknesses tomorrow. 

 

Value Pick: HyBriD (KT: $6,800) With how tumultuous T1 is right now, picking HyBriD doesn’t seem as crazy of a pick as it may seem. T1 has fallen to 6-7 after their shocking loss to Fredit BRION. T1’s bot lane has been failing in terms of production and even more specifically Teddy has been a liability to the team. HyBriD has 133 kills in 30 matches and a KDA of 3.4. KT doesn’t generally generate a ton of pressure through the bot lane but there are so many issues with T1 it may be worth the gamble.  

 

Support

 

Favorite: Iwandy (LNG: $6,000) As a middle of the pack support, Iwandy does bring a lot of aggression to the bot lane and he has a KDA of over 3. With 172 assists and and a first blood rate of almost 30%, he should be able to get Light ahead of Kramer. I think LNG will need to pick up the pace to prevent sliding out of playoff contention and that will require Iwandy beginning more teamfights and and roaming with Tarzan earlier. 

 

Value Pick: Ming (RNG: $5,000) This is the highest performing support on the slate. 275 assists (will most likely break 300 today), a 42% first blood participation rate, and a team kill participation of almost 74%. RNG will have no easy task against Lwx and Meiko but their play in the last three series against LNG, FPX, and RW while EDG lost their first match of the split against IG. Ming has great presence in the early game and will help GALA get online. Double up on these points and stack this pair if you believe RNG has what it takes to move into sole control of first place. 

 

Team

 

Favorite: DWG Kia ($5,800) This is the most dominant team in the world. They have the highest mid-late game rating in the league (16.8) and a kill/death ratio of 1.22. They don’t die, they take objectives at an astounding rate (baron control of 77%), and a gold differential of almost 1000 at 15 minutes. Afreeca Freecs have decent early games (early game rating of 55.4) but an abysmal (mid-late game rating of -10.6) which is the winning recipe for DWG.

 

Value Pick: KT Rolster ($4,400) If you follow LCK at all, this pick makes sense. T1 is the most inconsistent team in the LCK with a two a game loss streak and an embarrassing loss to Fredit BRION. T1 starts explosively but by late game they fall apart (-9.1 mid-late game rating) while KT holds their own as third best mid-late game rating in the LCK (+7). Remember this is a dog and there is a good chance that T1 just decides to start playing again but in your GPP lobbies this could fit really well as your low ownership line up.  

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): GALA ($11,100)

Alternate: Doinb ($11,100)

Top: Doran ($5,600)

Jungle: Canyon ($7,400)

Alternate: Tarzan ($6,400)
Mid: Cryin ($6,800)

ADC: Ghost ($8,000)

Alternate: Lwx ($7,800)

Support: Crisp ($5,200)

Team: DWG Kia ($5,800)