LPL/LCK Slate March 3rd, 2021

RNG v LNG

Oh My God! v TOP Esports

KT Rolster v DRX

Fredit BRION v T1 

The big dogs are out on Thursday morning. We got JackeyLove and GALA playing in the LPL while you have Faker, BAO, and Doran in the LCK. Watch out for some possible upsets with these teams and look for some stand out performances as well! 

Game #1: RNG v LNG

Cann’s Pick: RNG

Game #2: Oh My God! v TOP Esports

Cann’s Pick: TOP Esports

Game #3: KT Rolster v DRX

Cann’s Pick: DRX

Game #4: Fredit BRION v T1 

Cann’s Pick: T1

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: JackeyLove (TES: $12,300) In prepping for yesterday’s slate I went and watched the TES v ES series from last week and in the first match it was 100% the JackeyLove show He was getting 1v1 side lane kills against the ESS top laner and I then was curious about how much of an impact he actually has had on TES matches and I found that he is the gold lead for them in most matches.In fact he is almost the sole reason for the team’s +1900 gold differential at 15 minutes because of how incredibly dominant he is in the laning phase.   He has the 4th most kills in the LPL with 106 and has 100 assists. JackeyLove started this split very slow but it is clear he has hit his stride now. 

Value Pick: Cryin (RNG: $11,400) Cryin is the 3rd highest among LPL mid laners in terms of kills (71) and second in KDA (6.5). His lane opponent (icon) is having a fairly pedestrian split with only 43 deaths but less kills (60) and less assists (147 v 182). Both players look for late game team fighting but LNG tends to be a more passive team overall. Give the edge here for the kill points you will make off of him. 

Top Lane

Favorite: Xiaohu (RNG: $6,800) Xiaohu is averaging 80.0 FPPG. You are not reading that wrong, he is averaging more points than all but two ADCs, all but one mid laner, and every other top laner on the slate. He has 60 kills and 128 assists as well as being over 22% of RNG’s team kills. Great laner and RNG could very feasable win 2-0 tomorrow. 

Value Pick: Doran (KT: $6,000) Doran is a bright spot on a KT Rolster team who has had their struggles competing at a consistent level. He has 66 kills (third highest among LCK top laners) and averages a +143 gold lead at 10 minutes and an experienced lead of +82 at 10 minutes as well. Doran plays to make early game leads in lane and that is the biggest weakness of the DRX top laner Kingen. Should be a decent pick up in a series that will most likely be a lot closer than the standings indicate. 

Jungle

Favorite: Pyosik (DRX: $6,800) With as many deaths as kills to his name (71) Pyosik can get overlooked. What makes Pyosik appealing in this matchup is the fact that he is jungling against Blank and KT Rolster. On paper KT Rolster should be good, and many times they get scrappy in the late game but in all phases of the game DRX are performing better. Pyosik helps DRX secure first blood in over 40% of their matches as well as a baron control rate of 57%. I like this pick even with the larger price tag. 

Value Pick: Tarzan (LNG: $6,200) I think a lot of people sleep on Tarzan and LNG. He has a 4.1 KDA and 108 assists. He isn’t flashy and he may not net you massive points for kills but he is safe and does not start dying uncontrollably when LNG gets behind and sometimes from a value pick, that is all you want. 

Mid Lane

Favorite: Knight (TES: $7,800) Now Knight isn’t having the same type of dominant year as he did last year but he quietly has put up some great numbers. He has limited his deaths with only 27 in 17 games while putting up a respectable 68 total kills. He can play the control mages like Orianna and Azir (which a lot of the more aggressive mid laners have struggled with) and has a 6.7 KDA. He focuses on lane (which is why he has less kill numbers) but has an awesome CSing score of 9.2 and averages being up an entire wave of farm at 10 minutes (+7.5). Knight will boost these numbers even more playing into OMG’s Wuming. Great pick here.  

Value Pick: Ucal (KT: $6,800) I don’t love picking a KT mid laner here for the sole purpose of that I don’t know which one they will play. I feel confident here because Dove played so poorly and Ucal has done a decent job when playing. He has 67 kills (SOLKA has 54 and has 9 more games played). Ucal also has 10% more of a share of his team’s kills (26% v 16%) as compared to his lane opponent today. Risker pick but could have some really good upside, especially with how low ownership will most likely be for him. 

ADC

Favorite: GALA (RNG: $7,800) If you are going to drop this much money in a carry, GALA seems like the best place to do it. He is averaging almost 100 FPPG and has over 40 more kills to his name this split compared to the LNG ADC (Light). Almost 75% of all RNG kills have his handprint on it, while he is only responsible for about 14% of all team deaths. Meaning? He kills and rarely gets killed, maximizing value for you. 

Value Pick: Gumayusi/Teddy (T1: $7,400/$7,600) I think T1 may have the best bot lane in the LCK… if they stopped messing with it. I prefer Gumayusi and I recognize they are trying to bring him along slowly but the production level is just not the same. Gymayusi is averaging 76.3 FPPG while Teddy is averaging only 65.1. With only 7 more games Gumayusi has almost 50 (91 v 45)more kills but only 4 more deaths (34 v 30). I pray T1 wakes up, keeps with the Gumayusi/Faker lineup and moves on. 

Support

Favorite: Ming (RNG: $5,800) This guy is AVERAGING 70 FPPG. That is more than some of the carry positions. On this slate the next closest is almost 13 points per game behind him and it is Zhuo from TES. When GALA farms kills, Ming farms assists and so far this split he has 252 assists (next closest is Crisp with 212) and a kill participation of almost 75%. Pick him up and make your cash. 

Value Pick: Keria (T1: $5,600) Pick up Keria for all the benefit of the T1 bot side aggressive with none of the risk. Keria has the second highest assist numbers in the LCK with 255. Playing into the Fredit BRION bot lane of Delight and Hena means that Keria will pad those stats even more so. Keira is part of 35% of T1’s first blood kills and Fredit BRION loves dying in lane. Great points here.   

Team

Favorite: TOP Esports ($5,800) This is the widest gap between teams on the day. TES is making a strong push for a Spring Split championship run while OMG may not break 3 wins this entire split. TES are animals in the early game with much of the pressure created by JakceyLove and the huge early game advantages he gets. TES has the highest early game rating (71.2) while OMG has the second lowest (40.5) and the gold difference is staggering at 15 min with TES being +1950 while OMG is -1248 (that is an over 3k gold difference there which is enormous in League of Legends terms, especially that early). 

Value Pick: KT Rolster/LNG Esports ($4,600/$4,400) Both of these teams are my possible upsets for Thursday. Both have had some really great performances but also greatly disappointed the next. Their opponents (DRX and RNG) are comfortably above them in the standings and have been prone to slipping in matchups they should have probably won. While maybe not wins from these team it is not unreasonable to expect them to take at least 1 game off the favorites on this slate  

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): GALA ($11,700)

Alternate: Cryin ($11,400)

Top: Doran ($6,000)

Jungle: Wei ($7,200)

Alternate: Tarzan ($6,200)
Mid: Ucal ($6,800)

ADC: HyBriD ($7,000)

Alternate: Light ($6,800)

Support: Ming ($5,800)

Team: T1 ($5,400)