Both of these matches should be absolute bangers. In the first game we get to see if the NS bot laner (deokdam) can have the same carry performance against Gen.G as he did versus Hanwha Life Esports a few days ago. Then in the second game you have two of the top three teams going at it again with the two best mid laners squaring off. A lot to see in this lineup and you shouldn miss it!

Game #1 Nongshim RedForce v Gen.G

Cann’s Pick: Gen.G

Game #2 Hanwha Life Esports v DWG Kia 

Cann’s Pick: Hanwha Life Esports

Captain

Favorite: Ghost (DWG: $11,700) As of the 18th, Ghost is third on the slate in kills (95) with a better than average KDA (5.6). DWG are heavy favorites in this match and a lot of it comes from the ability for DWG to teamfight and snowball early game macro play into huge late game advantages. Ghost is a team player and will absorb a lot of pressure in the early game as BeryL roams the map but then end up carrying 31% of the team’s kills. 

Value Pick: deokdam (NS: $10,800) This was such a solid pick in the HLE contest on Thursday. He scored 115.06 points (not in the captain role) and had 27 kills and 12 assists in the three matches. I find HLE and GEN to be fairly comparable (possible edge to Gen.G) but I think he could have another big showing. One of the biggest traps in LCK/LPL slates as a BO3 as compared to the LEC and LCS is that you don’t need to pick winners as much but instead you need to pick performers. With this in mind, deokdam is a very cheap carry who could have a large impact. 

Top Lane

Favorite: Rascal (GEN: $6,400) Rascal has almost twice the KDA than his opponent Rich (3.9 v 2.2). I love this pick because Rascal is so focused on winning lane and picking up kills. He has 70 total kills in 22 games and Gen.G’s first blood come from the top lane 45% of the time. Hammer this pick. 

Value Pick: Morgan (HLE: $6,000) I think I may be the only person in the world who will make this take but I’ll still throw it out there. I think Khan gets carried by Canyon in the laning phase. Comparing Morgan versus Khan Morgan wins in KDA (4.3 v 3.8), average kills per game (2.2 v 1.95), and percentage of team deaths (18.6% v 20.6%). HLE has really settled into having Morgan as their full time top laner and I think that shows in his performances. Regardless of how this series plays out, Morgan should be able to get some really positive lane match ups

Jungle

Favorite: Canyon (DWG: $7,000) Canyon sets the tone for this team. DWG plays through his movement through the jungle. This could be with ShowMaker or BeryL helping invade the enemy jungle or him ganking lanes to help set up an objective take. HLE’s Arthur will have his hands full. He has 66 kills and 131 assists and really took Arthur out of the match in their first 2-0 match in January. HLE has evolved since then but DWG has kept it clean as well. Canyon is excellent at pathing and finds advantages in experience and gold at 10 minutes which could also give him an edge in the matchup. 

Value Pick: Peanut (NS: $6,000) In his matchup against the LCK kill leader for junglers (Arthur) he played a really good game. NS pushed HLE to a full 3 game series and went 15-14-30 through those three games. Peanut has been one of the flashiest and highest performinhg junglers in the last 10 years of League of Legends. He is a participant in about a third of all of NS’ first blood kills as well as is part of 72% of all team kills. The successes that NS has in this matchup will have to have Peanut as a part of it. 

Mid Lane

Favorite: ShowMaker (DWG: $7,400)  I think you can pick either side of this matchup. Neither mid laner really pushes the limit in the laning phase (in the 1v1) but primarily plays around their teammates. I could see junglers coming mid lane frequently and ShowMaker (as the reigning World Champion) should be the nod in this matchup. He has 81 total kills but really limits deaths (34). He has the highest team kill participation rate of all mid laners on the slate (69.7%) which really speaks to the DWG playstyle. 

Value Pick: Chovy (HLE: $7,000) I think you could build a lineup with both of these mid laners in one lineup. Chovy is the kill leader among all players in this role (89) and could very possibly crest that 100 kill mark in this matchup. Almost a third of all HLE first blood kills come in the mid lane with Arthur showing up so you have a good chance to pick up points early and often with Chovy. 

ADC

Favorite: Ruler (GEN: $7,600) While I think the NS has a solid bot laner in deokdam but the quality of team across the board is so heavily favored for Gen.G it makes this pick so incredibly safe. Ruler has 81 kills this split and a 5.2 KDA. He isn’t the flashiest ADC so I would avoid him as captain but a solid piece to put you over the top in your lobbies. 

Value Pick: Deft (HLE: $7,000) This may be the best value you can get Deft this split. He is the bot lane kill leader (109) and is almost 31% of all HLE kills. Deft is a strong player with a high mechanical ceiling. He can make small leads in lane but compared to the average deficits that Ghost has at 10 minutes, it is less concerning. If you are picking up Deft you are hoping for a decent lead in the laning phase (possible jungle gank?) and then a strong transition to those mid game skirmishes. 

Support

Favorite: Life (GEN: $5,600) While the strength of NS is their bot lane, Life and Ruler are just too consistent. Together they have only have 15 more deaths that NS’ support alone. While they are not the focal point of Gen.G’s strategy, they have similar kill participation and damage per minute. Life should be able to easily peel for Ruler as well as have solid initiations in fights. 

Value Pick: Vsta (HLE: $5,200) This is your assist leader for the slate with 212 total assists. Next closest is his lane opponent in BeryL at 182. While I think that HLE has a tall task ahead of them, wins (especially if the series goes a full 3 matches) don’t have as high of a weight compared to raw points. He does have the most deaths amongst support (75) so expect to see some of those points earned coming off the board but $5,200 for one of the best supports playing in the LCK right now is not a bad trade off. 

Team

Favorite: Gen.G ($5,600) The gap between these two teams are just too wide. NS could pull off a win and stretch it to a 3 game series but it will be really difficult for them to straight up beat Gen.G. Gen.G has the best team KD ratio (1.37) and best first blood rate (77%). They take the first turret 73% of the time and only DWG Kia has a better control over baron percentage. Easy lock for this pick. 

Value Pick: Hanwha Life Esports ($4,600) Look, this may be super obvious by the rest of the write up, but I think this is the opportunity for the upset. Much like the DRX v T1 match on Friday, there is a lot of hype around the bigger org (DWG) as there should be. The problem is that there is a lack of respect for HLE. I am assuming that there will be pretty low ownership here so that could be an avenue for GPP lobbies.

Cann’s Example Lineup

Captain (x1.5): ShowMaker ($11,100)

     Alternate: deokdam ($10,800)

Top: Rascal ($6,400)

Jungle: Arthur ($6,200)

     Alternate: Peanut ($6,000)

Mid: Chovy ($7,000)

ADC: Ghost ($7,800)

     Alternate: deokdam ($7,200)

Support: Life ($5,600)

Team: Gen.G ($5,600)