LPL Spring Split Day 3 

Bilibili Gaming versus eStar and TT versus RNG

In each of the first two days of matches we have had upsets. We had Suning with a strong 2-0 over TES and IG putting away JDG in quick fashion as well. For this slate I think it will go all chalk here but I could stand to be surprised! The best part of the beginning of any sport season is finding how roster changes and new faces will impact the landscape, so there is a chance that happens here too. 

Game #1 Bilibili Gaming versus eStar

Cann’s Pick: Bilibili Gaming

Game #2: TT versus RNG

Cann’s Pick: RNG

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: Gala (RNG: $11,700) I think the largest gap in the two matchups will be between RNG and TT, My Bookie agrees, RNG are being given -526 odds going into the match. The reason I chose Gala as a favorite is because the RNG mid laner (Cryin) played only 4 matches last split. Gala is experienced and will be someone RNG will rely on heavily this year. There is some potential here for RNG, but it will all hinge on what is Gala’s ceiling.   

Value Pick: Zeka (BLG: $11,100) This is some pretty good value here. Zeka, on Vici Gaming, had a KDA of 6.4 over 34 games in the Summer Split. BLG has worked hard after going 7-9 last year to add skillful players and that included picking up Zeka. I think BLG will be able to win more games this year, and I think it begins here against eStar. 

Top Lane

Favorite: Xiaohu (RNG: $6,600) This is a tough slate for top lanes. For the two favorite teams (RNG and BLG) they are feilding two top lakers each. The two dogs on the slate are only running one. If I had faith that either of these matches would go full three (thus losing the “Game Not Played” bonus) I would pick a dog top lane here. Xiaohu did not have a flashy Demacia cup (just a touch over 2 KDA) but in the months of June, July, and August he had a 4+ KDA which is more of what RNG is expecting from him. Interesting note about Xiaohu is that he is originally a mid laner who has transferred to the top lane. I think this means we should expect more dueling style champions from him and that lines up well with the meta that is in League of Legends now.   

Value Pick: Biubiu (BLG: $6,200) This could be a breakout season for Biubiu. Last year he was on the worst team in Victory Five who was seen as a pretty poorly coached team overall. They had roster issues and while they seemed competitive in a lot of matchups, they lacked any way to close out games. Under Suning’s Academy roster (which he was on loan from last year) he had showing of a quality top laner. Now that Biubiu is on a new roster, it is time for him to show that he is not the 0-16 from the 2020 season.  

Jungle

Favorite: Meteor (BLG: $6,800) I think Meteor is a solid jungler and had put up decent numbers in 21 games in Summer Split 2020 with a 4.7 KDA and 77.9% kill participation. What does that mean for you? Points. If BLG are going to lock down kills, it will be coming through ganks and pressure from Meteor. This is a bit of a harder matchup in the BLG v ES showdown but many times junglers success can be more of a reflection of the lanes that are winning around them. 

Value Pick: H4cker (ES: $6,600) Like I said in the Meteor breakdown, this will be the place where eStar has an opportunity to have an in on this match. H4cker is a solid jungler and was on OMG who ended Summer Split 14th in the league. I think H4cker was brought in as a veteran voice with a lot of academy talent on this eStar roster. So what does that mean? Potential. If the young players of eStar can gel and take that step forward together, H4cker will be a driving force behind that. This should positively impact his DFS numbers as well.  

Mid Lane

Favorite: Cryin (RNG: $7,600) Cryin does not have a long transcript of play to go off of. Last year he played a total of 4 games in Summer 2020, so why is he favorite? Easy, I don’t trust TT. TT is bringing THREE different mid laners into the season. If you have two people in the same position you could chalk it up to playstyle differences or gaps in champion pools but bringing three tells me you don’t know who should be playing. If you are that dysfunctional, you aren’t going to perform well. Look for this match to be a breakout game for Cryin. 

Value Pick: Zeka (BLG: $7,400) Not much of a “value” pick up here I know but I have no faith in eStar and their ability to trot out a good lineup. The starter (irma) played two matches in Summer but has been part of ES for all of 2020. It makes me feel like they will either be splitting time between irma and Insulator or that they know they don’t have much there. Zeka is also the only Mid who is on the roster which should guarantee all points for the match with no splitting.  

ADC

Favorite: Aiming (BLG: $7,600) Aiming is coming over from the LCK last year where he had a 4.5 KDA through 43 games. I am actually talking myself up on this pick and somewhat hyping myself out. Aiming has a career KDA of 4.55 which tells me he is wildly consistent over the course of his 200+ games played. In his time playing on AF and KT in the LCK he had tread water at about the 4th-6th best team and just missed Worlds multiple times. This could be a pretty big acquisition for BLG and I am excited to see what he does against some of the lower tiered skilled ADCs in the LPL.  

Value Pick: Samd (TT: $7,000) I try to give you one spicy pick each slate that could make a splash but this week I am giving you two. First I gave you H4cker and now I am giving you Samd. Samd played for Victory Five last year on loan from Suning’s Academy team. So while the Victory Five thing did not work out well, he is coming from some solid coaching in a well run organization. He has a career KDA of 4.57 in professional matches and in 54 matches has almost 200 kills. I think RNG should win, but I think there is a real chance that Samd can keep up with Gala in the bot lane.   

Support

Favorite: Ming (RNG: $5,600) A little bit of a chalky pick here, I do expect Ming to perform well alongside Gala in the bot lane. In 2020 he had a 3.3 KDA but he is going up against Teeen who wasn’t even playing in the upper league last year so he should have an edge. I think against better teams where Ming will need to be controlled with his engages he may struggle (He had 106 deaths in 36 games) he will struggle more but against TT he should be able to outskill them.    

Value Pick: Mark (BLG: $5,200) I prefer this pick over Ming. Not only is he $200 less in DK, but he also performed better (3.5 KDA and only 95 deaths) on a worse team (LGD) as compared to Ming.  Mark is best at playing tanky and engage champions so the picks like Leona, Alistar, and Galio that are popular right now should help him perform even better. 

Team

Favorite: RNG ($5,200) This seems like the most logical lock in the slate. I could see the BLG/ES match possibly going 3, but RNG just has better top to bottom talent compared to TT. Fast lock and may be worth not going cheaper on this week.   

Value Pick: ES ($4,600) Let’s be frank, eStar will most likely NOT win this match. But if you have picked up some bigger ticket players elsewhere, I think ES will play BLG much closer that TT will play RNG. There is a real chance to steal a match against BLG and play competitively enough to hang with them throughout the series.

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): Aiming ($11,400)

Alternate: Zeka ($11,100)

Top: Biubiu ($6,200)

Jungle: Meteor ($6,800)

Alternate: beishang ($7,000)
Mid: Cryin ($7,600)

Alternate: Zeka ($7,400)

ADC: Gala ($7,800)

Support: Mark ($5,200)

Alternate: Ming ($5,600)

Team: Bilibili Gaming ($5,000)