(+255) Gen.G v DWG Kia (-360)

(-140) TOP Esports v RNG (+110)
 

We get one championship match and we get a semifinal in the other match which means we are only getting the best of the best here. This is the point where it starts getting hard to make picks and we really need to break down the numbers. What makes this hard is that some teams like DWG Kia and RNG really have very little to go off in terms of playoff stats. Let’s take a look at where each of these teams are at right now and how they match up against each other! Let’s dive in!

Game #1: Gen.G v DWG Kia

Cann’s Pick: DWG Kia

Cann’s Comments: This will be a fun series. They split the regular season series with Gen.G shocking DWG in week 9 with a 2-1 series. I think this could definitely go to the full 5 games but if there were a combination of carries I would trust more it would definitely be the Canyon/ShowMaker/Ghost combination over the Clid/Bdd/Ruler.

Game #2: TOP Esports v RNG

Cann’s Pick: RNG

Cann’s Comments: I think this is the bounceback for RNG. I think the FPX series was an outlier and they just didn’t perform well in it. I think TES is not consistent enough of a teamfighting/objective control team to match up with RNG. Look for RNG to focus on protecting Gala like EDG did for Viper and prioritize taking JackeyLove out of the match. 

Captain

Favorite: Ghost (DWG: $11,400) This is probably the safest pick in the captain role. Ghost has been somewhat the staple of consistent play throughout the split. During the regular season he had over 200 kills, almost a 32% team kill share percentage, and absolutely bodied Gen.G in their first meeting in Week 3 but went on to lose to them in week 9. I think DWG is the better team on paper and the carry potential really doesn’t stem from Ruler (Gen.G Bot laner) in the early game so Ghost should be able to transition into the late game effectively. 

Value Pick: Xiaohu (RNG: $9,300)

Top Lane

Favorite: Khan (DWG: $6,600) This pick will seem somewhat counter intuitive because Rascal is the top lane kill leader for the LCK but there is a reason you should ponder taking Khan here instead. The first being that his jungler (Canyon) is the better jungler and Khan just does not die. He has a sub 15% death rate where Rascal is almost at 25%. This is a safer line and with DWG being so heavily favored should be a great place to pick up those late game team fight points from too. 

Value Pick: Rascal (GEN: $5,800) 

Jungle

Favorite: Karsa (TES: $6,800) Karsa has had a pretty good post season so far with a 3.1 KDA and a total of 20 kills in 7 games. The draw to this pick is how much TES uses Karsa to get them as a team ahead. In matchups like this one, Karsa will put a lot of attention bottom lane to put the enemy ADC behind. In other matches he will focus on putting the enemy jungler behind and making sure Knight has a considerable lead. Either way, he is getting resources and kill participation along the way. 

Value Pick: Wei (RNG: $6,600) 

Mid Lane

Favorite: ShowMaker (DWG: $7,200) This is the splash for DWG. Bdd is a good laner but he is getting outpaced by the younger version of himself. The strength of ShowMaker is how hard he can win in the isolated lane and then transfer that power elsewhere. In the regular season he had the second most kills by a mid laner (152) and limited his deaths (68 deaths in 43 games). Bdd is normally a quieter performer anyway but into DWG and ShowMaker I think it will be difficult to make an impact without DWG making some serious errors. 

Value Pick: Knight (TES: $7,400)   

ADC

Favorite: Gala (RNG: $7,200) Wipe the series against FPX from your mind. Gala is still the most dominant ADC in the LPL and I think a lot of people will sleep on this pick. We saw in the EDG v TES series that consistent and smart team play will rock TES. Even in the third game, JackeyLove had a decent lead but was left to get picked over and over again in team fights while TES couldn’t get onto Viper. I see RNG running that same team focused macro play to their match. 

Value Pick: Ruler (GEN: $6,800) 

Support

Favorite: Zhuo (TES: $5,800) You make this pick if you believe in the scrappiness of TES. They are a fight first team and most of that fight plays through Zhuo. He has 76 assists in 7 games as well as a 78% team fight kill participation rate. The bot lane of TES does have a first blood rate of over 30% and this should be the focus for TES In this series. 

Value Pick: Ming (RNG: $5,600) 

Team

Favorite: DWG Kia ($5,400)  This seems like the least likely favorite to be upset on the slate. DWG is the most dominant team in the world right now. They averaged 1200 gold advantage over opponents at 15 minutes and had a baron control rate of 74%. Look for them to try and trade objectives and force Gen.G to respond to them rather than letting them dictate the pace. 

Value Pick: Royal Never Give Up ($4,800) 

Cann’s Example Lineup

Captain (x1.5): Ghost ($11,400)

     Alternate: Wei ($9,900)

Top: Xiaohu ($6,200)

Jungle: Canyon ($7,000)

     Alternate: Karsa ($6,800)

Mid: Cryin ($7,000)

ADC: Gala ($7,200)

     Alternate: Ruler ($6,800)

Support: Ming ($5,600)

Team: DWG Kia ($5,400)