(-550) Hanwha Life Esports v Nongshim RedForce (+350)

(-750) T1 v DRX (+450)

(+105) Rare Atom v Invictus Gaming (-135)

This is it! We have made it to the best part of any season and that is the best of five playoffs! We get to see teams get more creative and strategies that have been developed in scrims make their way to the mainstage. Winners of each tournament will punch their ticket to Iceland for the Mid-Summer Invitational. So let’s dive in and breakdown these matches!

 

Game #1 Hanwha Life Esports v Nongshim RedForce

Cann’s Pick: Hanwha Life Esports

Cann’s Breakdown: This should be a pretty open and shut series. Both matchups between these two teams went pretty convincingly to HLE. The only real threat for NS is deokdam and if they can get him online for late game teamfights, HLE could find it difficult to close out the game but I doubt this series goes longer than a 3-1. 

 

Game #2: T1 v DRX

Cann’s Pick: T1

Cann’s Breakdown: This feels like it should be close with this being the 4 seed and 5 seed but we see in the LCK that top 4 versus bottom 6 is a pretty wide gap. Add to this that DRX lacks any real defined play makers and that they are on a 5 series loss streak, it feels like they have no chance against T1. 

 

Game #3: Rare Atom v Invictus Gaming

Cann’s Pick: Rare Atom

Cann’s Breakdown: I think this is your area to pick from for an upset. Both teams are trending in opposite directions with Rare Atom losing their last 3 matchups where IG has won their last three. They also have the same exact game record (so purely just the games they have played) with 21-15 straight up. I think the carries for RA (FoFo and iBoy) both have their moments but just the raw mechanical skill across the board from IG could prove hard to deal with. That being said, IG is wildly volatile and can drop matches they have no business dropping.   

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

 

Captain

 

Favorite: Teddy (T1: $11,700) I hesitate to pick any T1 players with their history of swapping people in an out of the starting 5 but after about 5 series, it seems like T1 has settled on their starters for now. Teddy has performed really well in their last few series racking up 95 FPPG in the last series and averaging 80.2 FPPG in all series played. While DRX won the first matchup, it was not this iteration of the roster which gives me even more confidence with this pick. You have been warned that no one really knows why T1 makes the roster choices they do but I would assume Teddy to be the starter Thursday morning. 

 

Value Pick: Chovy (HLE: $11,100)

 

Top Lane

 

Favorite: Morgan (HLE: $6,600) Morgan may not have the highest kill numbers (77) he is number one in terms of KDA (4.1) and team death share (18.3%). While struggling in his last series, Morgan is averaging 61 FPPG in his last 10 series. Look for HLE to have Morgan play a safer weakside player and focus on mid lane and bot side to get advantages. Rich (his opponent) shouldn’t pose too much of a threat in this matchup. 

 

Value Pick:Cube (RA: $6,200) 

 

Jungle

 

Favorite: XUN (IG: $7,000) This will be the angle to get IG into the next round with a win. He has 161 kills in 36 games as well as 220 assists. He has a 70.7% team kill participation rate and an almost 30% kill share rate. I think this will be the closest series and IG will heavily rely on the ability for XUN to get an advantage over Leyan. This will be a jungle heavy series.  

 

Value Pick: Leyan (RA: $6,800)  

 

Mid Lane

 

Favorite: Faker (T1: $7,200) It is the redemption arc for the “Unkillable Demon King”. You can’t fairly measure him on kills or assists because he has played fewer games and the rest of the LCK but his KDA is nutty sitting at a 5.7 KDA and a 21% kill share percentage. In his last 10 series he is averaging almost 8 kills and in his last series he dropped 14 total kills and scored 95 points. His lane opponent (SOLKA) rarely plays with agency meaning Faker should make it into the late game in great shape. Love this pick and praying they don’t try and go cute and put Clozer in for some reason.  

 

Value Pick: Rookie (IG: $7,000)   

 

ADC

 

Favorite: Deft (HLE: $7,600) One of the bigger odds gaps on this two day slate, Deft should feast, even into deokdam. The biggest reason for this? NS relies too much on their botlane to carry the rest of the team. This means you should see Chovy and Arthur coming bot early and often to take him out of the game. This extra attention should help add to Deft’s 182 kills and 218 assists from the regular season. This pick is a strategic pick not exclusively a statistical one.   

 

Value Pick: iBoy (RA: $7,400) 

 

Support

 

Favorite: Keria (T1: $5,800) This has been my rock for T1 since day 1. This isn’t just a play call (averaging 56.4 FPPG and has 379 assists on the split) but also the one consistent piece not rotated out throught the course of the split. Becca (DRX) has also been a consistent piece for them, but DRX’s lack of consistent threats in big matches should make this a quick 3-0 or 3-1 for T1. 

 

Value Pick: Lucas (IG: $5,200) 

 

Team

 

Favorite: T1 ($5,600) Here are some interesting facts about T1 (especially since they are only the 4th seed). They are the best early game team in the LCK (62.8) and they have the highest average gold difference at 15 min (+1230). Comparatively T1 secures first turret 75% of the time while DRX is at a 40% rate. They are 11% better at securing dragons (52% to 41%) and  10% better at controlling baron (58% to 48%). T1 has surged back to the top of the table which is impressive seeing as about a month and a half ago they were on the verge of not making playoffs at all. 

 

Value Pick: Invictus Gaming ($4,800) 

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): XUN ($10,500)

Alternate: Rookie ($10,500)

Top: Morgan ($6,600)

Jungle: Arthur ($6,400)
Mid: Chovy ($7,400)

Alternate: Faker ($7,200)

ADC: Teddy ($7,800)

Alternate: iBoy ($7,400)

Support: Keria ($5,800)

Team: Hanwha Life Esports ($5,400)