Alright we are back at it once again for another Xfinity race. I’m keeping my hopes up and remaining optimistic that this goes much better than last week’s debacle in the rain. The Truck Playbook has already been published and we have some later races than normal today with the Trucks firing the engines at 4:00pm ET and the Xfinity drivers will get started around 7:00pm ET. It’s a pretty wild night with the races, UFC card, Georgia/Alabama, and the League Championship Series for MLB.

We have 200 laps on tap for today’s race. The stages will run in 45-45-110 segments and we have a competition caution following Lap 20. This is a little different from the Truck race, which has no competition caution so this is a bit of a bummer to whoever gets out to the early lead. So, we have 150 dominator points available. I’m targeting about two drivers for dominator points with all my lineups and then targeting position differential.

Here’s a quick layout of the Playoff landscape for Xfinity. The remaining eight drivers are Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson, Justin Haley, Brandon Jones, Ross Chastain, and Ryan Sieg.

 

Driver Pool

Chase Briscoe ($11,500; Starting P6) Briscoe’s been outstanding this year. He has eight wins (which was his goal prior to 2020) and with four races left it’s possible he gets to ten. He didn’t have the greatest day at Kansas over the summer. He started P6 and finished 14th. Today he’ll start P6 once again, but I’m banking on a better performance. He won both Vegas races this year and finished in the Top 5 for both Kentucky races, and Texas. This feels like a race he could go out and win just to punch his ticket to the championship race in Phoenix in three weeks. It goes without saying, but exposure to Briscoe in GPP lineups is a no-brainer, possibly in Cash as well.

Justin Allgaier ($11,200; Starting P7) Ever since he got his first win of the season a couple months ago, Allgaier has fallen on both ends of the spectrum. Since the first Dover race he has three wins, five Top Five finishes, but four other finishes 23rd or worse. I’m of the mindset that if you’re among the eight remaining drivers in the playoffs, you’re in consideration this week. This is a VERY steep price tag to pay for Allgaier, but I want to make sure I have at least some exposure in GPP’s.

Austin Cindric ($10,900; Starting P2) To say that Cindric has been dominant at 1.5-mile tracks this year would be a severe understatement. For starters, he was a phenomenal play back in July at this track. He led 131 laps and had 49 fastest laps as well. He won the first two stages, but ultimately finished second overall. He won both Kentucky races this year, then won at Texas, finished third at Charlotte, second at the first Vegas race, etc. The list of accomplishments are endless. Strangely enough it’s been over two months since he’s won but he’s in a spot to get an abundance of dominator points once again.

Ross Chastain ($10,600; Starting P4) As long as he’s in a Kaulig car and still eligible for the Xfinity championship, I’m getting exposure to the Watermelon Man. He’s yet to smash a watermelon at the Xfinity level this year, but in all 29 races that have been run in Xfinity in 2020, he has 25 Top Ten finishes, and 17 of those have been sixth-place finishes or better. That’s just really solid, consistent work. He just hasn’t found his way to victory lane. I’ll still chase the upside with Ross. A win would be huge to catapult him to Phoenix. He only led one lap in the July race here, but he had 23 fastest laps while finishing fifth. Don’t sleep on him today.

Harrison Burton ($10,200; Starting P18) I do think I’ll be lighter than the field on Burton. He needs a Top 5 finish to return value, which is very much in play. On plenty of occasions he flashed that upside this year and we shouldn’t hold his results from the Roval or Talladega against him. He finished third here in July with 31 fastest laps. The PD will draw DFS players in, but as Matt noted on the podcast we typically see more wrecks than normal at Kansas so let’s be disciplined with exposure here.

Anthony Alfredo ($9,500; Starting P25) It feels like DraftKings missed with this pricing on Fast Pasta. He’s looked pretty damn good at 1.5-mile tracks with a Top Ten at Atlanta, a pair of sixth-place finishes at Kentucky, and he finished eighth a few weeks back at Vegas. Not to mention he has a lot of PD on his side. If he moves into the Top 12 with some fastest laps, he’ll easily return value. He didn’t race at Kansas back in July so there’s a little concern coming in blind to this track, but I can’t possibly fade him when he has this much PD upside.

Brandon Jones ($9,300; Starting P5) I’d be a dumbass if I didn’t, at the very least, mention Brandon Jones in the Playbook. He won this race in July and last October so two wins at Kansas certainly merit the Playbook shoutout regardless of my personal feelings toward the kid. It was also announced earlier this week he’d be returning to Joe Gibbs Racing next year in the 18-car for Xfinity. At this price tag and starting spot he definitely needs to win and get dominator laps. I would not advise playing him in Cash games.

Michael Annett ($8,900; Starting P11) The price has gone up on Annett after seeing it gradually dip towards $8,000. Perhaps DraftKings realized how easy it really was to just plug and play a guy who consistently finishes seventh, eighth, or ninth. This week he needs a Top 5 to return value, so given the starting spot and the price, he needs to give a little extra this week. And I think that potentially pushes ownership down a little bit since DK raised the price tag. I still say he probably finishes seventh-to-ninth, but he did get a Top 5 finish here a year ago so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.

Daniel Hemric ($8,700; Starting P3) Daniel Hemric really intrigues me as a GPP play. Ownership will be light because of the starting spot and because he’s starting behind Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe is starting the row behind Hemric as well. So it’s not a guarantee he gets to the front. And to be honest, if we didn’t have a competition caution I’d probably avoid him altogether. That doesn’t mean I think he comes out and leads early laps to win Stage 1, but it at least helps him when the field resets around Lap 25. But as much bad luck as Hemric has had this year, he’s done well at 1.5-mile tracks. I know this track is different in its own regard, but he finished sixth at Darlington, fourth at Atlanta, second at Charlotte, grabbed Top Ten finishes at Kentucky and Kansas (in July), and then finished third at Vegas a couple weeks ago and he’s got momentum following a third-place finish last week at the Roval. If he can avoid bad luck he’s a pretty good GPP play that will carry low ownership. If playing this guy you’re taking a contrarian approach in GPP’s because he needs dominator points and a Top Three finish to help you break the slate.

Ryan Sieg ($8,500; Starting P8) Admittedly this is a guy that I rarely play and his starting spot is based solely on the fact that he’s somehow still in the playoff picture. And he knows he needs a win if he wants to race for the championship in Phoenix. He has back-to-back ninth place finishes at the Fall race here in Kansas and he had a Top 5 here in July. He’s a guy that’s always pushing the envelope with strategy to put himself in position for stage points. But at this point, he knows to start strategizing to win the race and I expect his team to throw everything they can at the field to get a win.

Timmy Hill ($8,300; Starting P31) Make no mistake about it this is an AWFUL price tag for Timmy Hill. I’d only play him at this price if it was a discount for iRacing. However, he’s in the 13-car today over Chad Finchum while Austin Hill steps into the 61-car. He’s raced three times this year in the 13-car with a couple Top 20’s. But let’s be honest those tracks were all completely different (Indy Road Course, Bristol, and Vegas). We typically don’t think of him as a good 1.5-mile driver and if you were to fade him on this slate, I wouldn’t blame you. There are some cheaper options we can look to. But I’ll throw him in two of my 20 builds.

Austin Hill ($7,700; Starting P29) So MBM is shifting drivers around and Austin Hill gets into the 61-car fresh off the Truck race. The rides handle differently, but he’s jumping in the Xfinity race just an hour after the Truck series race so he’ll have a feel for the track at least. His last two races at this level haven’t gone great, but so what? That was a rain-soaked Roval race and Talladega. He can get a pass for both. The price tag is getting more expensive, but at the same time it’s still reasonable considering his starting spot. We just want him to move up about seven-to-nine spots, but at Vegas a few weeks back he started 29th and finished 17th.

Obligatory Acknowledgment of Jesse Little ($6,000; Starting P30) The Kansas race in July was a turning point in Little’s season. And it wasn’t a good turning point either. Prior to Kansas he rattled off a finish of 20th at Atlanta, 18th and 15th in the Homestead double-header, 13th at Talladega, tenth at Pocono, 18th at the Indy Road Course, a pair of 14th place finishes at the Kentucky double-header, and another 14th place finish in Texas. And then he wrecked out at Kansas and he hasn’t had the same luck since. Perhaps the equipment isn’t as good, but I always love the value play with Little here. Finishing 22nd will provide 5X value, but 19th would return 6X.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($4,700; Starting P14) Earnhardt is very interesting at this price. In the July race at Kansas he started 13th and finished 17th. That’s negative PD, but at this price tag you can tolerate that. Honestly if he finishes 17th again in this race, he’s still returning 5X value. He’ll need to avoid the wreckage and not fall too far back, but this is a GPP punt if there ever was one.

Other Drivers To Consider: I’m under a slight time crunch so I’ll throw in Myatt Snider, Brett Moffitt, Brandon Brown, Josh Williams, and Bayley Currey as additional options to consider under $8,000.

 

Example Lineups

The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

DraftKings Cash Example

1. Austin Cindric

     1a. Ross Chastain (Pivot)

2. Harrison Burton

     2a. Michael Annett (Pivot)

3. Anthony Alfredo

4. Austin Hill

5. Jesse Little

     5a. Myatt Snider (Pivot)

6. Bayley Currey

 

DraftKings GPP Example

1. Chase Briscoe

     1a. Austin Cindric (Pivot)

2. Daniel Hemric

     2a. Anthony Alfredo (Pivot)

3. Michael Annett

4. Ryan Sieg

     4a. Myatt Snider (Pivot)

5. Austin Hill

6. Jeffrey Earnhardt