I was initially going to do a joint Playbook for the Truck and Xfinity but after looking at the slate for Gander RV, I’m probably going heavier on Xfinity, so that’s what this Playbook will be focused on. I will still be in the Chat answering questions on the Truck race and Xfinity race as well. I’m probably only making three-to-five lineups for the Truck race, while probably a dozen or so for the Xfinity race. As is the case with Talladega and Daytona, all drivers are in play this week. You don’t need to spend every dollar of your budget at these tracks. I’ll put more emphasis on drivers starting further back, or drivers that just have a good history at superspeedways. You’ll typically want to fade guys starting in the middle, but basically you’re just hoping none of your drivers get caught up in this crap…

 

Don’t bother checking your lineups for DFS. They will be racing in a pack so there will be numerous lead changes and drivers gaining-then-losing track position as well. The Xfinity race is scheduled to start at 4:30pm ET Saturday afternoon and it’s scheduled for 113 laps. The stages will be broken into 25-25-63. They’ll have four sets of tires and they can make it 32-35 laps on a full tank of fuel. For the Trucks, they’ll get underway at 1:12pm ET with 94 laps broken up into 20-20-54 increments. They’ll also have four sets of tires and the fuel range is about 27-30 laps. For these races you typically don’t try to build around numerous dominators. We saw more tame racing at Talladega back in June, and it’s possible we see similar racing this weekend. But I’m not counting on it considering the playoff circumstances involved.

This Playbook, as has been the case lately, will be a bit shorter since I typically play Talladega much lighter. You can go from winning it all to losing it all in a matter of seconds. So don’t check your lineups until the end of the race and just hope your drivers finish. The contests still aren’t very great on DK for these races, but we’ll still try and make a little coin before playing heavier next weekend for the Roval.

Xfinity Series Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($12,000; Starting P36) This is a heavy price tag for Dinger, but he could easily pay it off. He’s in a Kaulig car and they have been very fast all year long and these are some of the best cars for plate racing. Allmendinger started 34th here in the summer race and he finished seventh. He has a few top ten finishes at the Cup level as well, but he’s in a class all his own in Xfinity. The price tag is nothing to be concerned about this week. His starting spot makes him a friendly play in Cash games and GPP’s.

Austin Cindric ($10,600; Starting P3) If I had to choose between Cindric or Briscoe, I might lean Cindric. If you compare their resumes at Talladega and Daytona, they’re somewhat similar with Cindric being a little better at Dega and Briscoe being better at Daytona. Cindric has back-to-back Top 5 finishes here and had an average running position of sixth in June’s race. Again, all drivers are in play this weekend but if only building a few lineups I’ll take the Team Penske driver at a plate race.

Ross Chastain ($10,200; Starting P13) You’ll notice a theme here with all the Kaulig drivers getting mentioned today. I like to think that Ross still wants to go out on a high note with Xfinity this year. He has a tremendous opportunity in the 42-car next year at the Cup level. But he still doesn’t have a win at Xfinity in 2020, and he’s still in the playoff run. He doesn’t really have the greatest history at Dega. However, in June he finished second to his teammate, Justin Haley, and ran inside the Top 5 for most of the race. That’s incredibly difficult to do at Talladega. I’m optimistic they’re going with a similar setup for Saturday’s race and he does have a little PD on his side here.

Justin Allgaier ($10,000; Starting P4) I’m anticipating some light ownership on Allgaier for today’s race. His last two Talladega races have gone poorly with a pair of accidents that resulted in him finishing 28th. That’s Dega for you. But prior to those two results he had six straight Top Eight finishes here with three of those being in the Top Five. He has some momentum coming into today’s race so he’s very much in play today and ownership might be down on him.

Noah Gragson ($9,800; Starting P2) Gragson will start on the front row next to Chase Briscoe on Saturday. He won at Daytona earlier this year and in general has been a pretty decent plate racer. He finished tenth at Talladega in June but managed to lead 19 laps, which is pretty impressive if you consider how difficult it is to dominate races here. His results lately have still been solid, including a runner-up finish last week at Vegas, but he just hasn’t led the laps like he did earlier in the year. He’s still a decent GPP play today.

Justin Haley ($9,600; Starting P8) Not much needs to be said about Justin Haley. He’s built a reputation as a fantastic plate racer and he’s in one of those very fast Kaulig cars. He won here over the summer, he won Daytona at the end of August, finished sixth at Daytona in February, and he won the Cup level Daytona race in July of 2019. He knows his way around superspeedways. The resume alone should’ve bumped his price up, but we’ll definitely get a little exposure at just $9,600.

Ryan Sieg ($8,300; Starting P7) Sieg is a fascinating play to me this week. He doesn’t have the greatest resume at Superspeedway tracks, but he’s been making more of a push to be aggressive in the playoffs. He’s currently seventh in the playoffs standings so he can “point” his way into the Round of Eight. But he’s shown more aggression to get to the front at the end of each stage to steal additional points. I wouldn’t play him in Cash games, but he’s an intriguing play in GPP’s based on how he’s looked in the playoffs so far. Riley Herbst is a similar driver that I also like today. He carries a slightly heavier price tag than Sieg but he starts P12 and really needs a win to move on to the next round as well.

Brett Moffitt ($7,900; Starting P15) Moffitt is running in both the Truck race and Xfinity race today so it’s definitely a busy one for him. In two races at the Xfinity level he’s finish 13th and fifth, with the Top Five result coming this past June. He’s basically had similar success in the Truck series as well. The Truck race probably means a little more to him since he’s in the playoffs in that series. But I’m not ruling out some exposure in GPP’s.

Brandon Brown ($7,300; Starting P14) The only thing I don’t like about Brown this week is the starting spot. But in two races here he has a pair of Top 15 finishes including finishing 11th here in June. He’s had some tough luck at Daytona, but he has a pair of top ten finishes there as well. The other thing worth noting is that Brown really needs a win to move on to the next round of the playoffs. He may drop to the rear early on just to increase his chances of making it to the final stage. But if he can avoid the Big One, I expect him to make a big push to the front and raise the stakes a bit in order to get a win to move on.

Austin Hill ($6,600; Starting P18) This is a risky play, but one I’m willing to roll the dice on. Hill provided plenty of value last week at Vegas, but the starting spot this week isn’t as friendly for PD and it’s in the middle of the field for that matter. But Hill’s pulling double duty this week as he’ll also be racing in the Truck race earlier in the afternoon. He hasn’t raced Talladega in the Xfinity series, but he has a couple Top Ten’s in the Truck series here. He really just needs a Top 15 finish to return 5X value. I’m thinking he might drop to the back of the field early in the race and if he does, don’t panic. That’s just strategy.

Chad Finchum ($6,400; Starting P32) I wouldn’t say Finchum is a Cash game lock because there’s still risk with his car having technical issues. But he did finish 22nd here in June, but his luck has been better at Daytona than Dega. However, after MBM cars have swapped rides the last few weeks, Finchum is back in the 13-car. He does need to move up about ten spots to return value, but if he avoid the wreckage it’s possible. I prefer Austin Hill over him this week though.

Garrett Smithley ($5,400; Starting P26) I’m anticipating a lot of ownership on Smithley in Cash and GPP’s. In four races at Talladega at the Xfinity level he has an average start of 32.8 and an average finish of 13.8 and he’s never finished worse than 21st which means his other three finishes have been 12th or better. That requires a lot of good fortune, but he’s found a way to avoid the carnage at this track. Similarly, for Daytona he has an average starting spot of 28.6 with an average finish of 17.1 so this is a guy you can really get exposure to that’ll save you money. Just because he’s avoided previous disasters doesn’t mean he’s completely immune to them. Simply registering a Top 20 finish will yield 5.5X value. If he can get inside the Top 15 that’ll return 7.4X value. I love getting exposure to Smithley today.

Jesse Little ($5,200; Starting P20) It wouldn’t be a Playbook written by yours truly if Jesse Little didn’t get some love. Back in June, Little started 18th and finished 13th at Talladega. Back in February at Daytona, Little finished 19th after being involved in a wreck but rebounded with a top ten at the August Daytona race. He does have to start in the middle of the pack, which is a little worrisome. He only needs to move up one spot and finish 19th for 5X value. A 16th-place finish will return 6X value. We can take a shot on Little as he’s shown Top 13 upside in two plate races this year.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,100; Starting P24) You know it’s a weird week when Earnhardt is in the Playbook. But when he finishes at Talladega, he usually provides value. In six races here he’s had two wrecks which resulted in him finishing 25th and 26th. However, when he’s managed to get the car across the finish line he has four Top 16 finishes, and his average starting spot across all six Talladega races is 24.7, which is very close to where he’s starting today. A Top 16 finish from him today would be 7X value as long as he finishes. He doesn’t have as much luck at Daytona, but today’s a day where we can pay down quite a bit and Earnhardt is definitely in play.

Matt Mills ($4,700; Starting P27) I much prefer the likes of Smithley, Little, and Earnhardt if you need to pay down today but Mills has some hit-or-miss potential. He finished 16th here back in June and tenth last summer as well. There have been some mechanical issues for him at superspeedways, so he still carries risk. Again, would much rather pay up for the previous three drivers.

Other Drivers Worth Targeting: Everyone. I just wanted to use this section to stress you can make a case for everyone today.

DraftKings Cash Example

The EXAMPLE lineup is meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. This is not meant to be plugged and played.

1. A.J. Allmendinger

2. Ross Chastain

     a. Riley Herbst (Pivot)

3. Justin Haley

4. Brandon Brown

     a. Ryan Vargas (Pivot)

5. Garrett Smithley

6. Jeffrey Earnhardt

     a. Jesse Little (Pivot)