Well last night’s race went fairly well on my end. I was close to winning the Happy Hour with about 30 laps to go, but ultimately still finished in the green, just not as much as I would’ve liked. I do apologize for those that played Raphael Lessard. His night went to crap very quickly as he fell three laps down in the first stage. But we have slightly better contests today for Xfinity. As of this afternoon, I don’t believe I’m playing Cash games. I’m doing just 20 Happy Hour lineups and calling it a night.

We have the first playoff race for the Xfinity series as they get things started with the Round of 12. We have 200 laps on tap for Vegas tonight which means we have 150 dominator points available. The playoff drivers for Xfinity are Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson, Brandon Jones, Justin Haley, Harrison Burton, Ross Chastain, Ryan Sieg, Michael Annett, Riley Herbst, and Brandon Brown. Chase Briscoe won this race back in February, but Austin Cindric and Justin Allgaier also contributed in dominator points as well. Last night’s Truck series race saw Sheldon Creed dominate the first two stages, but Austin Hill ultimately got the win. I’m expecting two-to-three dominator in today’s race with some drivers offering a little PD, but there aren’t many obvious PD plays today.

Driver Pool

Chase Briscoe ($11,600; Starting P1) Briscoe’s on the pole after pulling out the win at Bristol last week. He’ll line up next to Austin Cindric and those two have easily been the most dominant at the Xfinity level this season. He started on the front row in February, led 89 laps and had 58 fastest laps. The price tag isn’t an issue considering the potential for dominator points. He said he wanted to get eight wins this year and he’s sitting at seven after last week’s victory. He could easily top eight wins by the end of the year, and he’s a strong candidate on Saturday for a win.

Austin Cindric ($11,300; Starting P2) It’s been over a month since we’ve seen Cindric take the 22-car Penske car to victory lane after he looked unbeatable during the summer. He doesn’t have the strongest resume at Vegas with two accidents in five races, but when he avoids wrecks he’s finished in the Top 12 including a runner-up finish to Briscoe back in February. Cindric broke the streak of zero wins at 1.5-mile tracks after he swept the Kentucky double-header and then won the following weekend at Texas. He’s been fantastic on 1.5-mile tracks today. I prefer him slightly over Briscoe, but both are great plays today.

Daniel Hemric ($11,000; Starting P14) It seems crazy to put Hemric in the Playbook given he’s finished outside the Top 20 in four of his last five races. But before you call me out for being a fanboy look at what he’s done at 1.5-mile tracks in 2020. He finished second at Charlotte, fourth at Atlanta, ninth at Kentucky, and seventh at Kansas. He did have a suspension issue in the February Las Vegas race and he wrecked out of the 2018 Vegas playoff race. He has some awful luck, there is no arguing that, but on 1.5-mile tracks this year he’s been great at times. You obviously can’t trust him in Cash games. The price tag is a little high, but he’s a contrarian GPP play today.

Noah Gragson ($10,300; Starting P6) It was between Gragson and Justin Allgaier for this spot in the Playbook. I’m going to sprinkle in a little Allgaier in my lineups, but probably not a ton. He’s been on fire the last three races putting up at least 89 points on DraftKings in each race. I’m probably going to be lighter than the field with Allgaier, and will pivot to his teammate in Gragson. Gragson is aggressive and somehow always finds a way to return 40-50 DraftKings points. Now you really need him to get dominator points and they are certainly on the table today for DFS. He finished fourth here back in February and has looked decent on 1.5-mile tracks this year.

Ross Chastain ($10,000; Starting P4) Is it possible that Chastain could be the best value in today’s race? $10,000 is expensive but it’s not unreasonable to say such a thing considering he’s done nothing but rack up dominator points in the last four races. He also has seven straight finishes in the Top 6 so he has momentum. He’s a playoff driver who is still seeking his first win of the season and he’s getting dangerously close to locking one in and smashing a watermelon. He’s a bit of a contrarian play if everybody else is paying up for Cindric and Briscoe. You have to really like the speed Chastain has shown lately and he has some mojo at the moment after it was announced he would be in the 42-car for RCR at the Cup level next year.

Justin Haley ($9,800; Starting P10) The results haven’t necessarily been there for Haley lately, but the speed has been amazing. I’m hoping the lack of results keep ownership down, but I doubt it given the starting spot. His car has been so fast as he has over 100 fastest laps in his last three races. He’s looked solid at 1.5-mile tracks this year aside from Charlotte where he wrecked. He has Top 5 upside and the ability to rack up fastest laps which could get him to maybe 5.5X value. I do think he has Top 3 upside today though.

Harrison Burton ($9,600; Starting P5) I’m back on the Burton bandwagon for tonight’s race. Remember when he had a ton of speed for a while, then lost it once I started hyping him up? Well good news, the speed is back! At least it has been the last two weeks which require completely different setups. He’s coming off back-to-back Top Four finishes at Bristol and Richmond. He collected fastest laps at both tracks without leading a single lap. He finished fifth here back in February, and he had Top Five finishes at Atlanta, Texas, and Kentucky so I’m praying the setup is right for him tonight because this is actually a pretty good price to be getting him at.

Myatt Snider ($9,100; Starting P32) This guy has become so hard to read. He has three straight finishes outside the Top 30 so it’s possible the equipment has just given up on him. It makes you wonder how much he’s missing the 21-car which he hasn’t driven since Pocono. But this is a great starting spot for obvious PD. But the price is high for a guy who has not looked great of late and even at 1.5-mile tracks in the 93-car he’s had a mixed bag of results with more bad than good. Even with the PD, I don’t trust him for Cash games. It’s too expensive for a guy whose equipment has given out on him too much recently, but I will play him in a couple GPP lineups.

Anthony Alfredo ($8,600; Starting P8) I do wish he was starting just a few spots further back, but Fast Pasta seems to have gotten his groove back with a really good showing last week at Bristol. I’d probably rather pay up for Justin Haley or Harrison Burton, but ownership could be light on Alfredo. The car is still one of the best on the track so he’ll be on probably three or four of my Happy Hour lineups.

Michael Annett ($8,200; Starting P13) This is a really good starting spot for Annett. He normally starts in the Top Ten so to get him rolling off P13 at a decent price tag is something we can take advantage of. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he still provides a good floor. He’s a pretty safe bet to finish between seventh and ninth. He finished seventh here in February, seventh at Charlotte, 11th at Atlanta, fifth at Kentucky-1, eighth at Kentucky-2, fifth at Texas, and eighth at Kansas. There’s a very safe trend here. The P13 starting spot may not even be enough for people to really jump on him, so I think he’s playable in both Cash and GPP formats. If he finishes ninth with two or three fastest laps, he’ll return value for you.

Alex Labbe ($7,100; Starting P16) I don’t typically write up Labbe too much, but the price has dropped over the last few races and I’m now willing to get a little exposure in GPP’s. He has some momentum on his side as well. He finished 13th at Bristol last week, 12th at Dover, and 16th at Darlington prior to that. Those tracks are NOTHING like Vegas, I’m well aware, but he still managed a Top 20 here back in February. Keep it just to GPP’s when playing Labbe today.

Austin Hill ($6,700; Starting P29) Austin Hill gets the 61-car for MBM/Hattori Racing. At this point I’m confused as to who actually owns that damn car, but regardless Timmy Hill’s made the most out of it. Austin Hill (I also have no clue if he and Timmy are related, I went down a rabbit hole on the internet one night and still couldn’t confirm) got the Truck series win last night and while tonight’s race will be a couple hours earlier than last night’s, he will have a good feel for what to expect from the track. He’s a borderline Cash game play, but he hasn’t had the success at Xfinity that he has had at the Truck level. You still have to love the starting spot and price tag.

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,700; Starting P27) Graf got off to a very strong start as a rookie back in the Spring but has not had the same success carry over to the second half of the season. I still really like the starting spot though and the price tag is budget friendly. He’s had some decent success at 1.5-mile tracks this year: 20th at Vegas in February, 19th at Charlotte, 13th at Kentucky-1, 21st at Texas with some sub-par results as well. I don’t trust him enough for Cash games, but he’s a guy I’ll throw into a couple GPP lineups.

Jesse Little ($5,400; Starting P24) Here’s another guy I might get some crap for. But this is a preferred starting spot for Little since he isn’t inside the Top 15. The results lately have been poor, but at 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 he’s had some success. He finished 14th at the first Vegas race, 15th at Charlotte, 20th at Atlanta, then three straight 14th-place finishes at the two Kentucky races and then again at Texas. A Top 20 finish easily gets him to 5X value and a finish inside the Top 17 would return over 6X value. Keep exposure to GPP’s, but if you need a salary saver in Cash games, he’s an okay option (as seen below in the Examples).

Bayley Currey ($5,300; Starting P31) I really like Currey today, but I am concerned he might S&P today. I didn’t see his name on the initial entry list for Vegas, but he’s in there now with a TBA regarding a sponsor. If we don’t hear anything before the race regarding a sure-thing with a sponsor, don’t play him. If we do get confirmation then he’s worth a GPP dart throw. If I had to guess, I’m of the mindset that he’ll race since they travelled all the way to Vegas and invested money in travel and entry fees. Currey started outside the Top 30 at Charlotte and Atlanta and finished 18th in both races. He also collected some Top 25 finishes at Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas. So if we don’t think he’ll S&P today then he’s in play. A Top 24 finish will return 5X value, but a Top 20 finish would exceed 6X value.

Other Drivers To Target Under $7,000 – Stefan Parsons, Tommy Joe Martins (per usual), Colby Howard, Jeffrey Earnhardt (three straight Top 18 finishes at Kentucky-2, Texas, and Kansas), and Matt Mills. With Mills you’re just hoping the has Top 20-ish momentum that we’ve seen the last few weeks. He’s looked awful at 1.5-mile tracks but he’s a cheap punt that you’re hoping to maybe get 20-25 points out of.

Example Lineups

The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

DraftKings Cash Example

1. Austin Cindric

2. Justin Haley

     a. Ross Chastain (Pivot)

3.Michael Annett

4. Timmy Hill

5. Austin Hill

6. Jesse Little

     a. Bayley Currey (Pivot – A bit risky for S&P possibility)

 

DraftKings GPP Example

1.Austin Cindric

     a. Chase Briscoe (Pivot)

2.Daniel Hemric

     a. Noah Gragson (Pivot)

3.Joe Graf Jr.

     a. Colby Howard (Pivot)

4. Jesse Little

5.Harrison Burton

     a. Justin Haley (Pivot)

6.Austin Hill

     a. Stefan Parsons (Pivot)