I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t play the Truck series DFS slate tonight. The contests are terrible outside of the $8 Octane. Even their single-entry contests that I normally play, I’m not going to bother with. We’ve hit that point in the season where with the return of the NFL, other sports are taking a hit for DFS. Even in the Octane contest, first place returns just $5,000. In the $12 single-entry contest, first place gets $165 or something like that. So at most I’ll throw ten lineups in the Octane contest. And even that’s a best-case scenario. Realistically I could play fewer than five lineups or maybe fade the slate in general. This will be a more brief write-up given the lack of interest on DK’s part as well as the fact that there’s a lot of chalk on this slate.

On another note, NASCAR hasn’t run the Truck series here in about 15 years. So once again we have drivers coming to a new track with little experience in this package. On top of that, they just raced on Sunday at another track they had no experience at. So it’s a short week for most of the field. Richmond is a 0.75-mile D-shaped track and there are 250 laps up for grabs so definitely pay up for dominators this week, folks.

Update: I just wanted to add a quick note that I likely won’t be in the NASCAR chat up until lock. I’ll likely be getting home from work as the race is starting so unfortunately I’ll be M.I.A. for the final hours leading up to lock. I’ll try and answer a few questions while still at work, but it’s not a guarantee I’ll be able to get online.

 

Driver Pool

Sheldon Creed ($11,500; Starting P12) I don’t know how I feel about Creed this week. My Own Prison was a solid album, Human Clay was mainstream garbage, and Weathered wasn’t too bad, but “Don’t Stop Dancing” really ruins what was otherwise a decent record. As for Sheldon, I think I may go light on him again. He’s been red hot and the PD puts him in a spot to still move up through the field and lead laps, which he’s done plenty of lately. Let’s not forget that he still tends to wreck trucks and he’s even admitted to it. There’s obvious chalk in play here so tread carefully.

Johnny Sauter ($11,200; Starting P20) I was off Sauter last week and that was the right call. I’m on board this week because I think everyone else is tired of getting screwed by him. Sauter is winless on the season after claiming the 2016 Truck Title just a few years back, and he’s at a track where he’s previously raced at in the Truck series. What can he recall from way back when? Who knows, but there is motivation for a win this week and he has immense PD on his side. He could be up in the Top Ten by the competition caution and in the Top Five by the end of the stage. Sauter’s chalky in Cash, but I hope to be heavier than the field in GPP’s as well.

Austin Hill ($10,800; Starting P1) It’s hard to read the polesitter this week. Typically the polesitter at Richmond (in Cup and Xfinity) can lead about 30-40 laps, but they’ve historically been passed by someone else in the top ten that dominates the race. But I’ll say this about the Trucks; from 2001-2005 a driver from the front row led at least 80 laps in four of those races. In three of those races a front row driver led over 120 laps. Ben Rhodes and Hill are on the front row Thursday night. You tell me who you think is capable of leading 80+ laps.

David Ragan ($10,400; Starting P21) Ragan definitely disappointed last week at Darlington after starting 34th and finishing just 22nd. However, he had an average running position of tenth and I think most casual fans will overlook that and fade him based off last week’s final result. Ragan’s new-ish to the Truck series, but he at least has the track experience from the Cup series at this track and will again have PD on his side. Some folks may fade him to get on to Sauter, but at the same time I could see some people taking the discount and playing Ragan over Sauter.

Brett Moffitt ($9,600; Starting P4) Most folks might overlook Moffitt this week whether that’s because they want to take advantage of PD or pay up for Austin Hill to dominate the race. But let’s not forget that Moffitt has been collecting dominator points with each race on the schedule. Finishing tenth last week wasn’t what he had in mind, but 63 laps led and 42 fastest laps were a welcome sign from his owners. He’s also still slightly underpriced this week at just $9,600 so it’s another week to jump on the discount.

Matt Crafton ($9,400; Starting P10) I’m willing to give Crafton another shot this week. I’m not crazy about the starting spot once again, but he and Sauter are the only drivers that have experience in the Trucks at Richmond. Again, it was a long time ago. Crafton finished 14th last week at Darlington but had an average running position of eighth and he seems to fly under the radar each week. He can get up in the top five early on, but the finishes haven’t been there. He’s a contrarian GPP play.

Sam Mayer ($8,800; Starting P25) Mayer presents immense chalk on Thursday. He was one of my favorite plays at Gateway a couple weeks ago and he almost drove the 24-truck to a surprising win, but a late caution killed his momentum. He still finished fourth with 19 total dominator points on his day to return over 9X value. This week he starts P25 with a price increase, but honestly $8,800 is still too cheap for what he can do in this truck. A Top 12 finish surpasses 5X value and I’m willing to get exposure once again.

Ben Rhodes ($8,600; Starting P2) He’s coming off a surprise win at Darlington on Sunday and while it was a win he collected because of the leaders pitting with two laps to go, nobody can take that away from him. I noted in Austin Hill’s section how the front row can go out and dominate the race. I have more faith in Austin Hill getting out in front, but Rhodes is in a very good spot Thursday as a GPP play if he finds speed.

Stewart Friesen ($8,100; Starting P13) The luck has steadily improved for Friesen as the price has fallen. I could easily see him being under-owned this week as most won’t read him as a driver that can dominate laps, and there’s some weight to that claim. But after three straight finishes outside the Top 25 following Michigan and the Kansas double-header, Friesen has finished in the Top 10 in each of the last four races. He hasn’t collected dominator points, but as the price continues to drop and the results hold steady, he’s looking like a better and better play given the value we could find here.

Tyler Ankrum ($7,800; Starting P11) I hate listing so many young drivers at a new track, but let’s face it, they’re priced down with some intriguing starting spots. Ankrum is no different as we’ve seen him priced over $9,000 when he was starting inside the top ten and now he’s under $8,000 starting outside the top ten. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th in his last five races, but he does need 39 points on DraftKings for 5X value. Moving up three spots and finishing eighth will provide such a return.

Raphael Lessard ($7,600; Starting P7) Let’s not overlook Lessard this week. Yes, it’s another new track for the rookie without practice, but that was the case for Darlington and he started and finished sixth delivering over 5X value. He’s now finished in the Top Seven in four of his last five races. He’s a great GPP play that may go overlooked on this slate with so many laps led dominators that may be the preferred targets for DFS players.

Carson Hocevar ($7,200; Starting P30) I don’t get this price tag one bit, but Hocevar has immense PD on his side and he’s finished in the Top 15 in his last two races at Dover and Gateway. They aren’t incredibly close to Richmond given that Richmond is much smaller and a different shape in general, but Hocevar’s looked strong in his last two races. There’s still risk he could be lapped early on, but this price tag is hard to ignore.

Timmy Hill ($6,900; Starting P15) Timmy Hill comes in as the “Nice” play of the Truck slate with a very good starting spot if I dare say. Let’s not act like this 56-truck is garbage. Timmy and Tyler Hill have made the absolute most of this equipment. Last week Timmy drove it to a top ten at Darlington and this truck has eighth straight finishes in the Top 21 gaining plenty of positive PD along the way. Hill will need to finish 12th or better to return 5X value, but keep in mind, playing Hill saves a little salary where you can go pay up for dominators starting in the Top 12.

Danny Bohn ($5,900; Starting P18) Bohn’s price is ticking up ever so slightly, but he’s still under $6,000. I like him at this price point, but don’t love him. He finished in the Top 20 at Gateway and Darlington, so he could easily pull off a similar result at Richmond. He’ll need a Top 15 finish to exceed 5X value, but even if he finishes in the Top 20 once again, he’s in play if you play him alongside the proper dominators for this race.

Ryan Huff ($5,700; Starting P35) The starting spot is great because he can only lose one spot, but starting at the rear is typically a bad sign on short tracks as it signals falling down early a couple laps. However, Huff’s previous race (Kansas) generated some positive PD, but he was in a different ride. He’s slated for the 41-truck this week, which was piloted to a Top 25 finish at Gateway a couple weeks ago by Dawson Cram. I’m not ruling him out for Cash games, but there is still risk associated with this starting spot.

Tate Fogleman ($5,300; Starting P16) I normally would never start Fogleman this high. However, the price tag is just so cheap. Even last week at a very tough track he’s never run at he managed a Top 15 finish. He’s finished in the Top 20 in five of his last six races so he may surprise us Thursday night. Another Top 15 finish on Thursday means he could get close to 5X value.

 

Example Lineups

The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

 

DraftKings Cash Example

1. Sam Mayer

2. Ryan Huff

     a. Brett Moffitt (Pivot)

3. Johnny Sauter

4. Danny Bohn

     a. Stewart Friesen (Pivot)

5. Austin Hill

     a. Timmy Hill (Pivot)

6. Carson Hocevar

     a. Tate Fogleman (Pivot)

 

DraftKings GPP Example

1. Austin Hill

     a. Sheldon Creed (Pivot)

2. Brett Moffitt

3. Sam Mayer

     a. Carson Hocevar (Pivot)

4. Tyler Ankrum

5. Timmy Hill

     a. Stewart Friesen (Pivot)

6. Danny Bohn

     a. Ryan Huff (Pivot)