We have an earlier-than-normal Xfinity race this week for Daytona. Xfinity will hit the track on Friday night and it’s worth mentioning this is not the last race of the regular season for Xfinity. This is the regular season finale for the Cup series, but the Xfinity playoffs don’t start until late September at Las Vegas. But with that being said, we only have five races left in the regular season for Xfinity: Daytona, Darlington, Richmond (double-header), and Bristol. Only seven drivers have won at the Xfinity level and thus, qualified for the playoffs. Those drivers are Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, Brandon Jones, Harrison Burton, Justin Haley, and Justin Allgaier. Allmendinger won a race, but he’s not qualified to make the playoffs. So there are still five spots open via automatic qualifier for the rest of the field and anybody could win this weekend. Daytona doesn’t play favorites and it could end a driver’s day without bias or prejudice.

This is a 2.5-mile superspeedway similar to Talladega where we’ll see some of the fastest speeds all year and some of the highest-banked turns as well. As far as entries are concerned, there aren’t too many surprises. A.J. Allmendinger will be in the 16-car for Kaulig Racing. At the time I’ve started writing this Playbook (Wednesday morning) we don’t have the entry list yet, but he’s going to be starting further back which will make him chalky in all formats. Caesar Bacarella is stepping into a DGM racing ride for Saturday. He’s raced at Daytona plenty of times but has four straight finishes outside the Top 25. Gray Gaulding will be an interesting play as he steps into the 07-car for SS Green Light Racing. He’ll likely make the player pool below since he’s a decent plate racer.

This race is scheduled for 250 miles, which is just 100 laps. So that only leaves us with about 75 dominator points to work with and we typically don’t see anybody truly dominate superspeedway races. In February’s Daytona race, five drivers did lead at least 15 laps, but only two drivers collected more than ten fastest laps (Noah Gragson and Brandon Jones). So position differential and where drivers finish are probably what we’ll target. But again, building the perfect lineup is difficult for Daytona because several drivers won’t finish. As far as a player pool goes, I’m going to keep a tighter one. This race will likely start before I get home from work Friday night so I may not be in the Chat answering questions. So I may only build ten lineups and save my bankroll for another day. Remember, these are races that we normally want to go lighter for. Save your money. We didn’t see many wrecks at Talladega a couple months back, but that race was the exception, not the rule. By the time we get to the third stage we should see more chaos as drivers try to move up through the field to win since the field is running out of opportunities to automatically qualify for the playoffs. Don’t hesitate to leave thousands of dollars on the table for Daytona DFS this weekend. Also, this isn’t a race where you should constantly watch your DFS lineups. The field will basically be running in a pack together and you’ll see people move up and drop back constantly throughout the race. Some drivers may even take it easy and just try to survive the first two stages before finally making some moves in Stage Three.

 

Drivers To Target

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,500; Starting P34) – Dinger didn’t have a great showing in last summer’s race at Daytona. He led 33 laps but finished 38th after starting second. Talladega went better for him as he started P34 and finished seventh and that’s a similar result we can expect for Friday night. He will be starting toward the back since he doesn’t run Xfinity full-time and that presents a chalky PD play. But this is good chalk that we can get exposure to. Even at a high price tag he can pay it off and even if you play Allmendinger with other PD targets, you’ll still end up leaving money on the table.

Austin Cindric ($10,700; Starting P3) – When he can finish at Daytona he’s usually finishing in the Top 5. However, in five races here he’s finished in the top five just twice while wrecking out of the other three races. He also has a pair of top five finishes at Talladega as well. I may go lighter on exposure to him this week, maybe throw him in just one or two builds. He will start on the front row, and lead a couple laps but I’m not banking on him dominating the race. I’ll be the one hoping he doesn’t finish, as cruel as that is to say.

Harrison Burton ($10,100; Starting P11) – This kid just couldn’t get out of his own way last weekend. He took a choose-cone penalty early on because he couldn’t decide if he wanted to start on the inside or the outside. So instead he went right over the box and had to start at the rear. Then later on in the race he took a speeding penalty on pit road for opting to pit at the last second and he couldn’t get down to speed entering pit road. So with that said, I still really like the speed we’ve seen out of his car. He’s young and will gain experience in time, but he’s a promising prospect with a lot of upside here at Daytona. He finished second here back in February, but wrecked out of Talladega with less than 20 laps to go. Regardless I still like how the car has looked lately and it’s possible that with last week’s brain farts he could be lower-owned this week.

Justin Haley ($9,600; Starting P9) – Haley is actually a very good plate racer and he’ll probably have a decent amount of ownership because of his ability to get his car to the front and win by race’s end. He finished second here at Daytona last year for Xfinity, and sixth in February. He won at Talladega two months ago and finished seventh last year at ‘Dega. AND he actually won last year’s July Cup series race at Daytona (albeit under strange conditions). So he has the pedigree and proof to put up a solid showing. He’s done well to avoid the wrecks. While most drivers may opt to hang around the back of the field for a while to avoid the wrecks, Haley isn’t afraid to try and get to the front. He and his Kaulig teammates will all be great plays on Friday.

Brandon Jones ($8,700; Starting P6) I don’t expect ownership to be too heavy on Jones for Friday’s race, but he’s an intriguing play. He started in the exact same spot for the Daytona 500 and finished fourth. At the 2019 Daytona 500 he finished third. Now last summer he did finish 30th due to a chassis issue, but he’s a decent GPP option this week. He’s finished second previously at Talladega and even at Daytona’s road course a couple weeks ago he finished second. It’s obviously not the same, but he has some upside here.

Noah Gragson ($8,500; Starting P4) – In six Xfinity races at superspeedways he’s never finished outside the Top 15. That tells me he’s finding ways to avoid the wrecks. He also tends to run toward the front all race at Daytona. In February’s race he had an average running position of eighth and he tends to finish the stages inside the top ten as well. Also, this price tag is stupid low for someone who has been fast lately and has won here before.

Ross Chastain ($8,300; Starting P2) – Chastain has a bit of a mixed bag here, but it’s been more positive than negative. He beat out teammate, Justin Haley, here last summer for a win but strangely enough that’s his only Top 5 at Daytona for Xfinity. Haley got his revenge at Talladega as Ross finished second to Haley this past June. But Ross has been looking pretty solid lately. He’s hungry for a win because he doesn’t have a spot locked in for the playoffs (although he’ll probably make it without a win) so he’s definitely hungry for a trip to victory lane. He’s way too cheap this week.

Alex Labbe ($7,800; Starting P17) Labbe is a guy who has improved at superspeedways, whether that’s through becoming a better driver or he’s been fortunate to avoid wrecks. He finished tenth here back in February and 15th here two years ago in the summer, and he also finished ninth at Talladega a couple months ago. I love him in GPP’s, and I don’t necessarily hate him in Cash games, but there are better options starting further back.

Gray Gaulding – ($7,300; Starting P28) Gaulding is actually a pretty good plate racer. The price and starting spot do present some chalk though. He has a pair of Top 10’s in in two races at Talladega, and while he has had some unfortunate runs at Daytona, he did finish eighth in last summer’s race. Given the nature of this track he’s a pretty good option in all formats Friday night.

Timmy Hill ($7,500; Starting P31) – Timmy Hill will be very popular as a cheap play with PD upside on Friday. He basically S&P’d both races at Dover last weekend which won’t help his starting spot this weekend unless he goes back to the 66-car, which doesn’t appear to be the case. Regardless, he presents tremendous PD upside here. He has eight straight finishes in the Top 20 at Daytona including a third-place finish back in February. He’s also finished in the Top 10 here on three other occasions. I don’t get the decision to put him in the 66-car last weekend. That was bizarre, but he’s back in the 61 for Friday night and he’ll be quite popular. He can be used in all formats.

Brandon Brown ($7,200; Starting P15) I don’t love the starting spot for Brown, but there’s potential here. In his last two Daytona races he’s finished seventh and sixth and he’s shown the ability to move up here. He even has a pair of Top 15 finishes at Talladega. Brandon Brown is right on the edge of missing the playoffs so a good run here, or even a longshot win, will put him in great position and this is a race where anybody could win.

Vinnie Miller ($7,000; Starting P30) I haven’t played Miller in a few weeks and that’ll likely change this week. In five races at Daytona he has an average starting spot of 27.2 and an average finish of 17.8 so he’s moving up nine-to-ten spots each race. He has four Top 20’s here including back-to-back Top 15 finishes. At Talladega he has similar success and in three races there he’s moved up at least seven spots in each race. Miller’s definitely a GPP play, and I won’t rule out using him in Cash games.

Tommy Joe Martins ($5,600; Starting P18) I had to double-and-triple-check this, but it’s quite surprising that TJM has not raced at Daytona so this will be in his debut. I think the starting spot and the fact it’s his first race at Daytona could keep ownership down on Tommy Joe for Friday. What I like about him is that he’s raced three times at Talladega and moved up at least ten spots in each race. So while he has had some bad luck lately with a lot of mechanical issues he could be a really solid leverage play Friday night.

Joey Gase ($5,400; Starting P33) This will likely be the first-and-last time I include Gase in a NASCAR DFS Playbook. I normally avoid this guy when he’s racing in the Cup series, but at least this weekend it’s Daytona. Gase will do one of two things this weekend: 1. He will finish very close to the Top 15 (or in it for that matter) or 2. He will finish outside the Top 30. In his last six Xfinity Daytona races he’s finished 16th, 32nd, 33rd, 10th, 7th, and 19th. He is the quintessential GPP play for Xfinity Friday night. This will only be his second Xfinity race of the year, so hopefully the Cup experience he’s gained this year gives him some confidence for Friday’s race.

BJ McLeod ($4,800; Starting P23) I used McLeod in both Dover races last weekend and it didn’t go well either time, although the second race wasn’t so bad. But I’m going back to the well this weekend as he finished 13th in the Daytona 500 back in February. Again, he’s a boom or bust play here for GPP’s. The starting spot puts him in the middle of the pack which is dangerous, but he can either move up 15 spots here or get caught up in the Big One.

Jesse Little ($4,700; Starting P21) At this price you’re just hoping he doesn’t wreck. But even if that is the case, he didn’t finish February’s Daytona race and he still came in 19th. Then at Talladega he finished 13th so if taking advantage of the price tag you are just hoping that he finishes. If he holds his starting spot and finishes 21st then he’ll deliver 5X value basically. If he moves up three spots he’s hitting 6X value. We’ll give him another shot for GPP’s this weekend.

Everybody That Wasn’t Mentioned – So Matt and I always joke that you can basically print pictures of every driver in the field, tape them board a dart board, and build a roster by throwing darts. And while we actually don’t build rosters that way, we aren’t ruling out other drivers either. There are drivers better at these tracks than others, but for the most part everyone is in play since the Big One is partial to nobody. So if there’s a driver you really like that wasn’t mentioned above, you can still plug him in. There will likely be drivers in the Example Lineups that weren’t mentioned so we’re not entirely ruling anybody out, except for drivers that may Start & Park.

 

Example Lineups

Note: The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

DraftKings Cash Example Lineup

1. AJ Allmendinger

2. Timmy Hill

3. Gray Gaulding

4. Joey Gase

     4a. Noah Gragson (Pivot)

5. Vinnie Miller

6. BJ McLeod

     6a. Alex Labbe (Pivot)

 

DraftKings GPP1 Example Lineup (An Allmendinger Example)

1. AJ Allmendinger

2. Harrison Burton

     2a. Justin Haley (Pivot)

3. Alex Labbe

     3a. Vinnie Miller (Pivot)

4. Ross Chastain 

     4a. Tommy Joe Martins (Pivot)

5. Gray Gaulding

     5a. Joey Gase (Pivot)

6. Jesse Little

     6a. Brandon Jones (Pivot)

 

DraftKings GPP2 Example Lineup (Sans Dinger)

1. Noah Gragson

     1a. Austin Cindric (Pivot)

2. Brandon Jones

     2a. Josh Williams (Pivot)

3. Brandon Brown

4. Tommy Joe Martins

     4a. BJ McLeod (Pivot)

5. Ross Chastain

6. Justin Haley