Well…. I don’t really know what to make of this slate. I wanted to play a good amount, but at the same time the contests on DraftKings aren’t great, the weather is typical Florida weather in the middle of August (expect some pop-up showers/storms), there’s no practice, it’s the first (and possibly last time) we ever see this course run for NASCAR… It’s just very tough to read. I’m not going to play any Cash games, I’m strictly playing GPP’s. Last week with Road America I was looking great through two stages. I was up $1,100 but Jesse Little getting STUCK in the dirt forced my best performers to not make it back to pit road, so I lost a good amount. There is a lot of risk with this slate so I cannot stress how much you should take it easy this weekend.

At least with the Indy Road Course over a month ago we had decent weather and practice. There isn’t much hope for the weather and we certainly don’t have practice. Hell, the ARCA race Friday night was supposed to have practice and that got washed away (pun intended) so we’re really throwing darts this weekend. There are some drivers I like. I might keep a slightly tighter driver pool this weekend and I’m going with a similar strategy from last weekend and targeting finish position and position differential plays. We will have 52 laps for Saturday’s race, that’s just seven more than last weekend. With bad weather and cautions last weekend, they only ran 30 laps under green at Road America so that took away some dominator points. Given the variance with this race it’s possible we see a handful of cautions on Saturday so be careful. With 52 laps we’ll have 39 dominator points available, but again we’ll lose some with cautions. Here’s a turn-by-turn analysis of the course courtesy of NASCAR.com and here is the Cup Series Track Breakdown courtesy of Selz.

I started building the table but it was just presenting more of the same data that we’ve seen previously: A.J. Allmendinger and Austin Cindric are great road ringers, yadda yadda yadda… So I’m diving straight into the Driver Pool and cannot stress enough how light we need to take NASCAR DFS this weekend.

Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,400; Starting P11) We normally would go very heavy on Dinger for a road course, but the higher starting spot limits his ceiling. Remember what Matt and I said on the podcast, we’re throwing value out the window this weekend so while Dinger could still return value, he likely isn’t hitting 6X value, but a win gets him at least 5X value and if he moves up through the field then he’s likely getting fastest laps too. I’m going lighter on him this week than in recent weeks. Since I’m probably making just ten lineups (tops) this weekend, I’m fine going lighter on him if trying to take down a GPP. Still love him as a candidate to win, but we’re flying blind this weekend.

Austin Cindric ($11,000; Starting P1) Let’s refer to last week’s result from Road America. He started P2 and won the race. He led 19 laps and logged nine fastest laps. With all that, while priced at $11,000, he scored 56 points for just over 5X value. And that was the best case scenario for him. He needs a repeat performance of that this weekend. He’s been on fire lately as the momentum is there. He has six straight Top 5 finishes, he’s won four of the last five races, and he finished second in that race at Kansas that Brandon Jones won. He’s very safe. But we saw last week what a perfect race would need to be for him. And if Jesse Little doesn’t get stuck in the dirt, Allmendinger maybe runs away with the race. Instead, Dinger had to pit twice, which gave Cindric the lead back and even then Dinger fought his way back up to finish second. I’m playing these top two drivers much lighter than normal as I’d rather roll the dice on some more PD friendly drivers. I’ll still get a little exposure to both but I understand the chalk that’ll be eaten.

Justin Allgaier ($10,600; Starting P17) Last weekend was pretty on brand for Allgaier. He had a solid car, was running fairly well, and then on a re-start he got caught up in a wreck. But he’s a pretty good road racer. He’s won previously at Road America and Mid-Ohio, he finished seventh at Indy a month ago, and he has PD upside that we should be looking at. Will he crap his pants in stage three? It’s possible. He doesn’t have the greatest luck. He’s the opposite of Brad Keselowski, but I’ll be heavier than normal on Allgaier this weekend.

Daniel Hemric ($10,200; Starting P23) Hemric isn’t really thought of as an elite road ringer. He looked okay to start Road America. The funny thing was that the broadcast team was talking up Hemric and how he put in work on road courses to be a better road course driver, and then literally three minutes later his engine blew up, thus ending his day at Road America. He’s pricy but he has PD this week. He may be a bit under-owned as well so get a little exposure if looking to spice things up.

Earl Bamber ($9,900; Starting P29) Bamber’s in the Playbook for two reasons: 1. PD, and 2. He’s in the 21-car for RCR. That car has been great regardless of who is behind the wheel. I really don’t like the narrative here though. I don’t get why RCR doesn’t have Kaz Grala wheeling the car this weekend. Bamber does have experience on the road course at Daytona, although it was a little different than what he ran in the Rolex 24. So, he has practice, but just not in this setup. I love the starting spot and the PD though.

Chase Briscoe ($9,600; Starting P2) We’ll never see Briscoe this cheap. It’s as if DK doesn’t realize Briscoe has finished in the Top 4 in seven of his last nine races including a win at Indy’s road course over a month ago. More recently he hasn’t been the dominator that we saw when racing returned. Cindric’s been dominating the races lately. But there isn’t much room to dominate this race, but he’s still starting right behind his arch nemesis, Austin Cindric. He’s a bit contrarian to lead laps, but in GPP’s he’ll still be chalky given the price tag. I do like his chance to win this race since everyone’s on a level playing field this weekend.

Brandon Gdovic ($9,400; Starting P37) Gdovic might be the safest driver on the slate, if one exists. He’s starting 37th, the price tag is reasonable, and he finished 12th after starting 38th at Indy. Again, everybody had practice for that race though. But I do like this starting spot from the perspective that he might avoid any early wrecks to start the race. But the PD alone will make him popular in all formats this weekend. Like Bamber, he also ran in the Rolex 24 race about seven months on a slightly different version of this course.

Justin Haley ($9,200; Starting P5) Haley is a really intriguing driver this weekend. He can generate really strong finishes, won’t collect a ton of dominator points, he’ll hang around for a while, and just have a strong race. And THAT is what we’re looking for today. We don’t need a ton of laps led, we really just want him to hold his position or maybe steal a late win somehow. I love him as a GPP play.

Andy Lally ($8,800; Starting P6) Lally was a DFS darling last week on Road America. (I think) He was actually one of the drivers who was screwed by having to pit twice following Jesse Little’s debacle and yet he still managed to finish fifth last weekend at Road America. He ran in the Rolex 24 race this year so he has a little experience, but the conditions will be much different since we may encounter rain. But I also like him because this is strictly a position play. He’s starting sixth and by playing him I’m just hoping he can rattle off a decent finish and I don’t think ownership will be crazy either.

Jeremy Clements ($8,500; Starting P18) Clements is a good road racer and he’s been a good sourse of PD throughout the year. He was running inside the Top 20 for most of last week’s race before a wreck with three laps to go ended his day early. The other issue with Clements is there are a couple drivers in this price range that are either cheaper or starting further back. Prior to last week he had six straight finishes inside the Top 13. Remember, he won Road America a few years back so he is capable of pulling off the upset despite being on a smaller team.

Alex Labbe and Myatt Snider ($8,300/$8,100; Starting P16/P27) I’m going to include these two together because I think there may be some bad blood from last week's race. Both were running well prior to the wreck a week ago and it’s possible Snider seeks out revenge on Labbe this week. I don’t think this is the place to do it, I think revenge is better suited for one of the Dover races this week. But I like both of these drivers regardless. The price tag is friendly for both and the starting spots are nice. Snider may have more ownership because he’s starting further back, so I might draft Labbe a little bit more.

Preston Pardus ($7,700; Starting P12) Pardus has only run two races this year, but both were road courses and he churned Top 10 finishes in both races. The downside is he doesn’t offer as much PD this week as he did previously, but again, just try to target the finish position and he’ll be fine.

Jade Buford ($7,500; Starting P32) Buford’s going to be chalky this week so just buckle up and get ready to feast upon it. Like Pardus he ran both the road course races this year and while he hasn’t had the success Pardus has, he’s yielded two Top 20 finishes. And this week he lends himself to more PD than the previous two races, so the upside with points will be there.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,200; Starting P22) Why the hell not? TJM has been struck with bad luck for so long, but he’s quietly rattled off three straight Top 20 finishes including one last weekend. Given the price tag and starting spot he just needs to move up a few spots and if he can dodge the chaos around him he could be a slate breaker. That’s wishful thinking, but I don’t think he’s a truly awful play this week, especially after a good showing at Road America a week ago.

Jesse Little ($5,300; Starting P24) Don’t get me wrong, I’m still pissed at this guy for costing me money last weekend. But dammit this is a fantastic starting spot for him. We normally get him starting ten spots higher, but this is right where we want him and the price tag is phenomenal. He definitely wants to bounce back from an absolutely crap day at Road America. I’m expecting a Top 20 finish, but he could yield a better result to be honest.

Bayley Currey ($5,100; Starting P34) Currey isn’t a great road racer, but he and maybe Stephen Leicht are about as cheap as I want to go on Saturday. Leicht is a better road racer and has a better price, but I expect ownership to be heavier on him for those reasons. Currey is a little contrarian. He didn’t have any success a week ago at Road America, but prior to that race he rattled off four straight finishes in the Top 25. Again, those were not road courses and if playing Currey you’re hoping he can gain PD by avoiding wrecks.

Example Lineups

DraftKings Cash

1.Brandon Gdovic

2.Jade Buford

3.A.J. Allmendinger

4.Jesse Little

5.Myatt Snider

     a.Kyle Weatherman (Pivot)

6.Alex Labbe

     a.Daniel Hemric (Pivot)

The Cash lineup without pivots presents a ton of chalk, so just be aware. Earl Bamber is another good pivot for Cash games, as is Jeremy Clements. If you can fit Allgaier in, he’s a great Cash game play as well. That may require pivoting off Allmendinger though.

DraftKings GPP

1.Justin Haley

2.Brandon Gdovic

3.Jesse Little

     a.Justin Allgaier (Pivot)

4.Preston Pardus

     a.Kyle Weatherman (Pivot)

5.Jeremy Clements

6.Earl Bamber