My apologies for not being around in the Chat last night. I tried to hit on my potential absence in the NASCAR Podcast as well as the Xfinity Playbook. I didn’t get to watch the race last night and I have only seen highlights from it, but what I can gather it was pretty rough. I should’ve added the same disclaimer to Brandon Jones than I added in the Xfinity Playbook. Looking back at yesterday’s Playbook it looked like the cheaper plays did enough to return value, but it was the higher-end guys that struggled. I played the three example lineups pretty light and they got crushed.

At first glance, I’m not crazy about this slate. I played last night’s race very light and I may take a similar approach today. The value plays are tricky to identify and there’s chalk all over the place especially for Cash games. I’m going to play the ten lineups (including the examples below) and proceed with caution for today’s race. I’ll likely keep a tighter driver pool and go heavier on the Xfinity race. I just don’t have a great feeling or a great read for this one.

Today’s stages are broken into 30-30-74 with no competition caution. They’ll have four sets of tires. Fuel range is about 48-52 laps according to Bob Pockrass.

Driver Pool

Christian Eckes ($10,900; Starting P3) – I’ll go back to the well with Eckes today. He’s too good of a driver to finish 13th and his average running position for the race was seventh, but yeah it’s disappointing since he was on the pole yesterday. He’s starting in the second row for this afternoon’s race and he only has Brandon Jones and Chase Purdy in front of him. Jones is the epitome of high variance, but Eckes can get to the front today.

Austin Hill ($10,700; Starting P15) – Hill got the win in yesterday’s race and will be chalk now that he starts P15. Assuming he makes very few adjustments to the car he should be very popular today and he presents a problem since people will be all over him in Cash games. I normally don’t like picking the same driver on double-headers, but we’ve seen at all levels it’s worked out. Austin Cindric swept both Kentucky races at Xfinity a couple weeks ago. At the Cup level, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin swapped wins and runner-up finishes at Miami. So at least the recent trends bode well for him coming off his first win of the year.

Brandon Jones ($10,400; Starting P2) – Playing with fire here. Jones disappointed yesterday, but let’s not forget this is still a great truck that’s been driven to multiple wins this year, including one by Jones. Keep the exposure to a minimum. He was awful yesterday but the team can make adjustments for today since he’s on the front row. He screwed people yesterday and he screwed people at Kentucky for Xfinity. Ownership could be way down since NASCAR DFS players love to write off a guy when he burns them.

Brett Moffitt ($10,200; Starting P14) – I whiffed on Moffitt yesterday. Didn’t think he had it in him. He collected a lot of dominator points and now he’s about as chalky as Hill for today’s race. This is his most PD-friendly starting spot of late dating back to Charlotte. Even if the abundance of dominator points aren’t there for him today, the PD is.

Matt Crafton ($9,400; Starting P12) – Crafton’s one of the few drivers I’ve been right about lately. He got his third straight Top 5 finish yesterday and the price actually dropped for today’s race. From what I’ve seen he looked great yesterday and dodged a couple bullets. But in three straight races he’s posted 50+ points on DraftKings and he’s in a cheaper spot today that still lends itself to PD.

Stewart Friesen ($9,000; Starting P27) – I loved Friesen yesterday and he let me down big time. But the starting spot and price are great for both formats today. The problem is that he’ll be chalky. A Top 15 finish should return plenty of value so expect ownership to be quite high on him.

Grant Enfinger ($8,500; Starting P13) – Enfinger showed up last night with 6X value. The price jumps a little bit but he has better PD for today’s race. He’ll come with some ownership, but I don’t think it’ll be too bad. With Ankrum starting so far back and being the cheaper option, I may consider Enfinger slightly over him in GPP’s as a hedge in this price range. Love both guys today though and I’m hoping for another solid run from Grant.

Tyler Ankrum ($8,300; Starting P33) – He’s a huge PD threat here. Ankrum’s a pretty likable guy by all accounts and he could’ve had a much worse finish yesterday. His team did work on the truck to get it back out on the track. What could’ve been a 39th place finish turned into a 33rd finish for him. He’s among the drivers that will be chalk based on where he’s starting. He routinely finished in the Top 15 so we’ll want to get exposure today.

Raphael Lessard ($7,800; Starting P16) – He was a whiff last night. I’ll take him to rebound today. He’s starting 16th and I’m predicting he can move up and finish 12th similar to his result from Texas last week. That’s 36 points, which isn’t 5X value but maybe he surprises us. It’s still a good Truck and he got some experience last night. He’s a young, talented driver so I’ll roll with him in some GPP builds.

Derek Kraus ($7,200; Starting P11) – Kraus was one of the few correct calls from last night’s race. He returned a whopping 7X value so good on you if you played him. The price didn’t go up terribly, but ownership could be soft today since he’s starting higher and he’s $300 more. He’s been a solid driver lately with four straight Top 11 finishes. And he’s gained PD in each race. He doesn’t even need to do much to return value so get some exposure today.

Travis Pastrana ($6,600; Starting P34) – He hasn’t raced in a handful of years and that’s a concern without practice. However, the price and the starting position are too good to pass up for the guy who will be in Ross Chastain’s truck. It’s great equipment but you just worry about the guy behind the wheel. Pastrana got a Top 15 finish here at the Xfinity level back in 2013, but the layoff is pretty drastic. He hasn’t raced in the Truck series in three years so I am mildly worried about the rust. But the equipment and starting spot is so damn good. If he can get a Top 22 finish, which is somewhat reasonable given the drivers in front of him, he can get 5X value. If he can finish 19th he’ll yield 6X value. He’ll drop to the rear on pace laps, but he’s far enough back as it is that it won’t hurt him.

Austin Wayne Self ($6,400; Starting P17) – From what I’ve watched from yesterday’s race I really like what I saw from AWS. He got some PD and returned 5X value, which is all we can ask for in the Truck series. I still love him in GPP formats today because ownership will be softer on him. I actually like the speed he showcased yesterday. He definitely needs a Top 15 for value today and I think the starting spot might scare people away since he usually starts further back.

Tate Fogleman ($6,100; Starting P22) – I normally wouldn’t play Fogleman starting this high. It’s very likely he goes backwards, but the value options for today’s race are hot garbage. I don’t even expect him to return 5X value today. That would require him to move up to 18th and he’s a guy whose truck is typically outside the Top 20 as evidenced by Friday’s race. I’m honestly hoping he holds serve and just isn’t a disaster. Ownership should be light on him.

Tyler Hill ($6,000; Starting P19) – This is my ballsy pick for today’s race. His brother ran the race pretty well yesterday starting P24 and finishing 19th. Tyler does need to drop to the rear on pace laps for the driver change, but he’ll have plenty of laps to get back up to his starting spot. From there he only needs to move up a little bit to return value. Granted, he’s never finished higher than 19th in any race so this will be a challenge for him. For that, he should have low ownership and I’m plugging him into a few builds.

 

Example Lineups

DK Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is not the Cash lineup I'm rolling with today. I'm playing Cash games very light as there is too much chalk. I will throw this one in a couple GPP's.

DK GPP 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP 2