Alright well folks we’re back at it for another Xfinity race because these drivers get a week off. That’s right, for next weekend the only NASCAR race we have will be at New Hampshire and I’ll be on the Playbook for that one as Matt gets a couple days off. The timing is nice since August is loaded with double-headers at the Cup level for Dover and Michigan. I believe Xfinity has a double-header as well so that’ll be a handful. If you already caught the Truck Playbook that was published overnight you’ll know I’m a little tied down with other commitments this week so I haven’t had time to put together any tables. However, in my breakdowns I’ll mention previous driver histories at Kansas, Kentucky, and Chicago as well as momentum since I feel that goes into current plays this week as well. Stages will be 40-40-87 and I’m sure there’s a competition caution somewhere between Lap 15-20. The only series not having the CC is the Truck series.

Upon first review of the pricing, the mid-range sucks a bit this week. The prices for the top-tier of drivers are fine and the value options at the bottom are good as well. But it’s difficult with some of the mid-range guys. For example, Colin Garrett is priced up to $7,600 which is much higher than we’re normally used to seeing. He starts P37 so the PD is there, but he needs to finish in 21st to return 5X value. He hasn’t raced in over a month so it’s just hard to play him at that price. The rest of the mid-range is a strange island of misfit toys as well so we’ll navigate our way through it to find the best plays.

 

Driver Pool

Austin Cindric ($11,200; Starting P4) – The price is lofty and the track history in two Kansas races is horrendous. Last year he started third and finished 25th, the year before he started fourth and finished 39th but that was due to an accident. But he comes in with plenty of momentum. He won both races at Kentucky a couple weeks ago and he technically won last week’s race at Texas, but it took a Kyle Busch disqualification for him to be rewarded with the win. DraftKings doesn’t wait around for post-race tech results before paying contests. Whether you disagree with them or not, it’s been their policy. They’re consistent about it and I like that. Prior to the 1.5-mile tracks he was looking awesome at the Indy road course (a race he could have won) before a penalty somewhat derailed his afternoon and he still managed a Top Five finish. He is giving off some Kevin Harvick-esque vibes for me. I didn’t play Harvick in my Cash lineup last night (not that it mattered because my Cash build still sucked, thanks Chase) but Cindric has the makings of severe chalk for this race. I’ll still get shares of him but will keep it to maybe 3-of-20 lineups.

Chase Briscoe ($10,900; Starting P6) – If Cindric is the hottest driver right now, at least Briscoe can hang his hat on possibly being the safest driver right now (for DFS at least). Briscoe has five straight finishes in the top four and that can extend to six of his last seven races as well. $10,900 is actually a steep price, but for Briscoe, a guy who has won five times this year with three runner-up finishes, it’s kind of a discount. He’s collected dominator points in seven straight races and he’s in position for more on Saturday. Last year he started 11th and finished third while leading 33 laps. I wouldn’t recommend playing him with Cindric, but currently I think I’m going to be heavier on Briscoe this week assuming everybody else will be on Cindric.

Noah Gragson ($10,300; Starting P10) – Last year Gragson started in the same spot as he will be on Saturday, but he finished 13th last October at Kansas. He looked really solid at Kentucky a couple weeks ago. He finished 7th and 11th in both races, but he won three stages, led 124 total laps, with 40 fastest laps. He’s a largely unlikable guy who just needs to mature a little bit and then he might have an easier time finding a ride in 2021. The talent is there and he could have a solid run at Kansas. It’s easy to see him getting to the front here, but getting around Briscoe, Cindric, and Burton will be a tough task.

Ross Chastain ($10,000; Starting P7) – As I’m writing this, Ross is actually the last guy I’m adding to the Playbook and it’s just so I can meet the usual 18-20 drivers that Matt and I normally cover. Realistically I only like about 13-14 Xfinity drivers this week. I love Ross in the Truck races this weekend. I’m not thrilled about him in Xfinity. But in a time where we are dying for drivers to get practice and a feel for the track. At least Ross is getting two Truck races in. Now I know the aerodynamics of each vehicle are completely different. But he’s a little contrarian because he’s not as likely to get to the lead as other drivers are. But Kaulig has done very well preparing their cars each week. He doesn’t have the greatest resume here so that’s enough of a reason to fade him. I may throw him into two builds just to spice things up and get exposure when ownership could be light.

Harrison Burton ($9,800; Starting P5) – Burton might be low owned this week because his price makes it a little hard to play him given the starting spot. However, his setup the last three races has been on point. He was consistently running in the top five for the first Kentucky race before a late spin dropped him to 17th. The last two races he’s had at least 13 fastest laps and at least 15 laps led. He’s starting P5 and most of the field is going to be heavier on Briscoe and Cindric. So in my 20 lineups I think I’m going to have Burton in at least four and he may be in my single-entry lineup on the off chance he is the one that can get to the front on Saturday.

Brandon Jones ($9,400; Starting P2) – PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK. Seriously, Brandon Jones needs to come with precautions, safety labels, biohazard signs, a bottle of whiskey, tissues, etc. He can be an absolute mess and a disaster for DFS. I was so heavy on him for that second Kentucky race and even when he got up to third he couldn’t avoid his own ways and wrecked out for the second straight night trying to pass Daniel Hemric. He did win at Kansas last year, but wrecked out the year before. In four races he has three top ten’s so he’s still not an awful GPP play because he’s on the front row and I’m assuming he’ll start on the outside to possibly get an early jump. Again, he does have Cindric and Briscoe starting right behind him. But if he catches clean air he could log some early laps led.

Myatt Snider ($9,200; Starting P33) – I would’ve loved Snider in the 21-car for RCR this week. For whatever reason, RCR picked Kansas of all places to put Kaz Grala behind the wheel when they should’ve done that three weeks ago for Indy. Snider basically needs a Top 15 finish for 5X value and that’s perfectly reasonable. He’s in weaker equipment in the 93-car but he’s piloted this ride to solid finishes. He got a Top 10 at Miami, a Top 5 at Pocono, and a Top 15 at Kentucky-1. The price tag is steep, but he’s got PD on his side and I’m not ruling out a Top 12 finish.

Justin Haley ($9,000; Starting P12) – I’m putting my faith back in Haley’s car this weekend. Haley gets the lowest starting spot among the Top 12 drivers in owner points and should be a decent play for DFS. His car is consistently fast and always has a good setup. He started 12th here last year and finished seventh. A similar result would be just shy of 5X value so he’d need to get some fastest laps or move up further. Keep in mind he’s coming off finishes of seventh and third at Kentucky just a few weeks ago.

Daniel Hemric ($8,800; Starting P9) – He definitely needs a Top 5 finish to help your DFS lineups, but this is a great price tag for a driver of Hemric’s caliber. Two years ago at this track he started on the pole and finished second but led 128 laps. He’s in a solid ride still and while he hasn’t been a laps led dominator, he’s been churning a few fastest laps each race so that should help him return value if he can still finish in the top ten.

Riley Herbst ($8,600; Starting P8) – Herbst is back in the Top 12 for owner points, which is where he deserves to be but we’re missing out on some fantastic PD from when he was in the second tier. He finished second and tenth a couple weeks back at Kentucky and his car has looked solid. The PD may make it harder for him to return value on DraftKings and he doesn’t get to the front all that often. Consider him a contrarian play at best for your GPP builds but there are other drivers that can get you value.

Michael Annett ($7,900; Starting P1) – I’m not a huge fan of playing Michael Annett this week. He was on the pole last week for Texas and was quickly passed and didn’t get any dominator points. So while most people say that will repeat, and I tend to agree, I’m not ruling out his team trying something different to avoid that from happening. We’ve seen the drivers starting on the pole lead a ton of laps here. Last year Christopher Bell led 69 laps and logged 34 fastest laps. 2018 saw Daniel Hemric led 128 laps and get 54 of the fastest laps. In 2017, Erik Jones didn’t start on the pole but he was on the front row and he led 186 laps with 86 fastest laps. So there’s a clear benefit to being on the front row. Will he get the gaudy numbers those drivers did? Doubtful, but the ownership will be light on him especially after he fumbled the lead last week early on.

Ryan Vargas ($7,400; Starting P30) – I’m not going heavy with Vargas on Saturday, but I’ll take a few shots. Vargas is stepping in for Colby Howard in the 15-car this week. We’ve seen Howard pilot this ride as well as somebody possibly could. But this price tag absolutely sucks. Vargas is nearly $2,000 more than Howard would’ve been. He did finish 13th at Pocono but that was mostly due to avoiding some disastrous wrecks in that race. I have no doubt he’ll move up here, the question is how much. A Top 18 finish, which he’s capable of can return 5X value. I just hate DK for pricing him up when they wouldn’t have done the same for Howard.

Brandon Brown ($7,000; Starting P22) – It’s 2020 and we live in a world where Kaz Grala, Colin Garrett, Ryan Vargas, Bayley Currey, and Timmy Hill are all more expensive than Brandon Brown this week. In three of his last four races he’s put up 40+ DK points. In four of his last six races he’s put up at least 39 DK points. Kentucky-1 didn’t work out for him, but the second race was great. This is a driver capable of finishing in the Top 12, but he also carries risk as he could go backward via mechanical issue. He’s definitely a solid GPP play especially if he finishes in the Top 15. I’m still on the fence if I’m using him in Cash games.

Joe Graf Jr. ($6,200; Starting P34) – This is right where we like to see Graf. The starting spots for him have been just a little too high, but this is right in our wheelhouse. At the first Kentucky race he started P31 and moved up and finished 13th and he returned about 7X value. It made him virtually unplayable in the second race the following night since he started P3, but I’m getting some Kentucky-1 vibes this week from him. He’ll need to move up about ten spots to hit 5X value, but he can get there. I would like the price to be a little cheaper but at the same time we’ll take it since he’s been more expensive lately.

Chad Finchum ($6,100; Starting P31) – So here’s a little “Hindsight is 20/20” for you. For the Kentucky-1 Playbook I was struggling with putting Finchum in. He actually was in my initial draft but then I got cute or overthought it. Either way, I deleted his section. There’s no way he could possibly finish in the Top 20, right? At best maybe he finishes Top 25… Well he made me look like an ass when he finished 16th after starting P32. So I won’t make the same mistake again with Finchum, and he’s $300 cheaper than he was for Kentucky-1. Even a Top 22 finish would get 5X value and he arguably has some of his best results at Kansas. Last year he started 35th and moved up to finish 26th. The year before he started 33rd and finished 16th. I’ll be happy with a finishing result somewhere in the middle of 16th and 26th for Finchum this week.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,500; Starting P35) – I’m going back to the well with Weatherman. He obviously hasn’t returned the value we need from cheap plays the last two races. But this starting spot is eerily similar to the first Kentucky race where he started 30th and finished eighth. So as long as the starting spot is juicy we’ll play him. I’m hoping the results from the last two races keep his ownership down, but I’m not entirely confident in that statement. In his lone race at Kansas he started 20th and finished 22nd. Even if he just moves up to 25th and finishes there he’ll return 5X value.

Jesse Little ($5,200; Starting P14) – I get the feeling nobody else will want to start him here… Except me. This is right about where we’ve seen Little start a lot of races recently… And it’s right about where we could see him finish the race if all goes well. If we’re lucky he might move up a few spots. It is a little crazy that he was priced up over $8K for Bristol and now we get him much cheaper. But whatever, he has nine straight Top 20 finishes coming into Kansas. In six of his last seven races he’s finished in the Top 15. That won’t get the blood flowing like Viagra will, but considering his price he could hit 5X value even if he drops two spots and finishes 16th. If he moves up one spot and finishes 13th he’s bordering 6X value. He just needs to hold serve and avoid the wrecks, so I’ll keep playing him in GPP’s if DK doesn’t budge on the price.

David Starr ($4,700; Starting P15) – This is a fun, cheap GPP play. Starr piloted the 07-SS Green Light Racing ride to a 13th-place finish last week at Texas. Kansas is a bit different, but the starting spot could keep ownership off this guy. In six races here he has an average start of 27.5 and an average finish of 21.3 so he has the ability to move up. I don’t think he moves up much. Similar to Little you’re hoping he holds serve and just doesn’t fall too far back. Even if he dropped back and finished 20th, that’s not 5X value, but that also wouldn’t kill your builds either. Realistically he can move back and finish 18th and still get you some value. But if he moves up a couple spots and finishes maybe 13th, then that’s 7X value right there.

BJ McLeod ($4,600; Starting P20) – McLeod doesn’t get enough credit. He’s not in a great ride, but he gets the absolute most out of it. His career-best finish here came a year ago when he finished 19th after starting 23rd. He had a decent showing at Kentucky getting a pair of Top 20 finishes, but he’s cheaper this week than he was for Kentucky. I’ll say Little and Starr may have the higher ceilings, but McLeod might have less ownership. I still prefer Little and Starr over BJ, but he doesn’t need to do much from where he’s starting to return value.

 

Example Lineups

DK Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP 2