Thursday’s race was… Something. I was very high on Brandon Jones and he wrecked Lap 2. And it wasn’t even his fault. Jeb Burton got loose and Jones tried to avoid it, but it was the wrong place at the wrong time. And this is unfortunate because now he’ll be chalk for Friday’s race after I had him in 9-of-20 lineups on Thursday. I’ll eat the chalk though. He’s cursed at Kentucky for whatever reason, and I thought he would break the streak here but once again he got into some bad luck here. Then from there the wrecks followed Justin Allgaier, Brett Moffitt, Colby Howard, Harrison Burton, etc. It was weird, but I was fortunate not to lose too much. Here is the starting order for Friday’s race:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the drivers going to the rear for tonight’s race and where they’ll be scored from:

  • Ronnie Basset Jr,. 19th
  • Justin Allgaier, 20th
  • Timmy Hill, 21st
  • Kody Vanderwal, 25th
  • Brandon Brown, 27th
  • Colby Howard, 32nd
  • Daniel Hemric, 34th
  • Brandon Jones, 36th

As you can see, we have a ton of chalk for tonight’s race. Luckily, DraftKings published the prices before we knew the starting order so we can take advantage of value, but the chalk will be feasted upon. For reference, you can look at the Playbook from Thursday's race for the table, but here are the drivers I’m targeting for Friday’s race. This will be the traditional length for Kentucky. We’ll get 200 laps on Friday night for 300 miles. The stages will be 45-45-110 with competition caution on Lap 20.

Drivers To Target

Chase Briscoe ($11,600; Starting P12) – Cindric won from this spot on Thursday and Briscoe ran in the Top 5 pretty consistently. He’s an obvious plug, but given the price tag we would really need him to lead a fair amount of laps, which he’s easily capable of. He has five wins under his belt and he finished fourth Thursday night so expect heavy ownership on Briscoe once again, but I do think he’ll be less owned than Cindric.

Noah Gragson ($11,200; Starting P5) – Gragson started on the pole on Thursday and dominated Stages 1 and 2. He led 87 laps, but fell out of the Top 10 on the final restart and ended up finishing 11th. While that obviously sucks for lineups built around him on Thursday it does make him an appealing play once again on Friday. Considering that Graf, Clements, Little, and Snider are starting in front of him I don’t think he’ll have any trouble passing some of these guys and getting to the front. One counterpoint to playing Gragson (aside from ownership) would be how he didn’t look great in traffic. And that’s a general case at Kentucky if you aren’t getting the clean air.

Justin Allgaier ($10,900; Starting P20) – This is going to be one worth keeping an eye on. Allgaier was involved in a nasty crash on the final lap with Ronnie Bassett Jr. and Timmy Hill. Allgaier is currently in the hospital at the time of this writing (Thursday night) and we don’t know too much about his condition. Honestly, I’d be stunned if he raced on Friday so we might see a different driver in the 7-car for JR Motorsports. I’ll provide an update if that’s the case and if that does happen, that driver would go to the rear and be scored from P20. Update: Allgaier has been cleared from the hospital, but it still isn’t clear if he’ll race Friday night. In addition he’s also going to the rear for a backup car.

Ross Chastain ($10,500; Starting P13) – Chastain returned 41 points Thursday night on DraftKings, which was only 4X value. He will roll off 13th on Friday night at a more expensive price tag. I only put him in two lineups on Thursday, but may go a little heavier tonight. He’s a solid driver, he just really needs to lead laps in order to return value.

Austin Cindric ($10,200; Starting P15) – Cindric won the race on Thursday from the 12th spot. He didn’t get to the lead until the third stage, but after numerous restarts following cautions, he got the lead and had a firm grip on it. He was a DFS gem and I’m glad I had him in many builds Thursday. He’s going to be chalk on Friday considering where he’s starting. I’ll lighten my exposure considering he’ll be the chalk and he’s in the same car that he won in. It was good to see him get the win after I thought he’d win last weekend on Indy’s road course. But it’s worth noting that on double-headers we rarely see the same driver win both races. It could be wise to actually fade him, but I will make sure to get him in a few builds.

Harrison Burton ($10,000; Starting P17) – I completely faded Burton on Thursday night and while I was regretting that decision for most of the race, he had a pit penalty midway through the race, and later on would spin out that dropped him a few spots as well. He was impressive on Thursday so I may load him into 20-30% of my builds hoping for the same speed. Unfortunately he does need a Top 5 finish for 5X value so I do believe he’s a fun GPP play that may not have a ton of ownership.

Brandon Jones ($9,800; Starting P36) – To say that my heart sank when Jones got caught up in Thursday’s wreck on Lap 2 would be an understatement. How can he possibly have this much bad luck at Kentucky? To be fair, his spotter told him to go low to avoid Jeb Burton getting loose, but Jones stayed high and took an early exit after the collision. Unfortunately, he now starts 36th and even in a backup car he should be able to yield 5X value. A Top 15 finish in a backup car could get that. If he finishes in the Top 10 we’ll get 6X value.

Myatt Snider ($9,300; Starting P1) – The PD potential sucks because it’s non-existant for tonight’s race. And with competition caution at Lap 20, he possibly loses the lead on the restart if Gragson starts on the front row with him. But we’ve historically seen the leader get a healthy dose of laps. And we have to be honest with ourselves, with so much chalk on this slate you have to take some chances on off-the-board plays. If Snider were in the 21-car it would be a better play. Don’t go too heavy on him, but chasing 20 laps led, with the hope for more, you can plug him in a couple GPP builds.

Anthony Alfredo ($9,100; Starting P10) – I’m not overly excited about Alfredo tonight. He’s $900 more than he was last night and after the steering issue on Thursday night I quickly pivoted off him in all my builds. And of course, he quickly resolved the situation, got it fixed and NASCAR let him start P11. For most of the race, I was okay with pivoting off him because he looked solid to start but then ran outside the Top 10 late in the race. A wreck with two laps to go certainly helped his cause and I was pissed at him for being the catalyst to Colby Howard’s demise. But tonight, Alfredo needs a hell of a run and sure, there are drivers in front of him he can easily pass. He needs to finish 4th or better for 5X value. We’ll see what happens, but he’ll make a few GPP builds.

Michael Annett ($8,900; Starting P11) – Annett started P4 last night and finished 5th. He fell just short of 5X value at $8,000 but that was the risk we took. Unfortunately, DK priced him just about right for tonight’s race at $8,900. He showed solid speed last night and this is a starting spot that lends itself to solid PD. If he gets another Top 5 finish tonight then he’ll hit 5X value. I think it could happen, but keep in mind the quality of drivers starting right behind him than can move up as well.

Riley Herbst ($8,500; Starting P14) – Herbst was phenomenal last night, although he was certainly chalky. And in the Playbook for last night I did say this is typically where we don’t want to see him start and he obviously doesn’t get another Top 3 finish. But he showed speed last night and consistently ran inside the Top 10. He’s only $100 more so while he probably doesn’t have a 60+ point upside we saw last night, if he finished 8th (which was his AVG position last night) he’ll come close to 5X value.

Brandon Brown ($7,800; Starting P27) – Brown actually looked really strong on Thursday night. He finished Stage 2 in 9th place, but a Stage 3 wreck pushed him outside the Top 20 and he finished 27th. And that’ll be where he starts on Friday night and he lends himself to plenty of PD. With so much chalk on the slate, Brown is a guy I want to go back to. He showed Top 10 speed on Thursday and he did finish the race, albeit two laps down. While everyone will be all over Hemric and Jones due to the quality of their rides, Brown is a great pivot if looking to differentiate.

Daniel Hemric ($7,400; Starting P34) – If you read yesterday’s playbook you know I was a bit grumpy that Jeb Burton got the start over Hemric. And then Burton went and wrecked early on that also screwed Brandon Jones. So now Hemric starts 34th and goes to the rear on pace laps. Big deal, he drops two spots. Hemric performs pretty well at Kentucky and I would’ve loved him to perform in both races, but we’ll have to eat the chalk with everybody else on Friday night.

Timmy Hill ($7,100; Starting P21) – There are probably more reasons to not play Hill than there are to play him. For starters, he’s going to the rear for a backup car and he’s still being scored from P21, but he really does need to finish in the Top 15 to return value. In addition to that, Hill did acknowledge that his team has to put in a lot of work in order to get their car ready for Friday’s race so there’s a chance the backup may not be as good. But we might get Hill at low ownership and he was on his way to a Top 15 finish last night. The 61-car has looked much better for him lately so we will continue to take advantage of him at this spot.

Jesse Little ($5,700; Starting P2) – DraftKings is finally coming around on Little’s pricing. He’s returned 6X value in three of his last four races and he’ll be starting on the pole Friday night. If you want to chase cheap laps led then Little could be in store for some if he can get in front of Myatt Snider. And call me crazy, but I do think Little could get the jump on the lead prior to the competition caution. Snider lucked into the 15th place finish last night with the wreck on the final lap and spent most of the race running 18th-20th. According to Racing-Reference he didn’t record a single quality pass while Little had 19. It’s very likely that he ultimately goes backwards and gets you negative PD points. However, ownership will be light and as we saw on Thursday night, chaos could ensue once again. Even if he loses seven spots and finishes 9th he can still touch 5X value.

Garrett Smithley ($5,300; Starting P31) – I much prefer the starting spot for Smithley tonight as opposed to last night. The price tag went up a little but he only needs to finish 24th to return 5X value. He’s going to have to deal with the fact that he will be passed by Hemric and Jones early on but remember this is a longer race and this is the best starting spot for PD he’s had.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,100; Starting P8) – I’m late to the Weatherman party, and I’m still not sure how much exposure I’ll have tonight. But he looked really good in traffic last night and got a Top 10 finish. He’s posted 40+ points on DK at a cheap price over the last three races. Tonight he may not have the same ceiling, nor will he have much ownership. But a Top 10 finish still gets him 5X value. He’ll have to deal with some talented drivers starting behind him that can easily pass him, but it’s a long race and on the off chance that he simply holds his position and finishes 8th (miraculously) then he’s a 7X value play.  

Colby Howard ($4,900; Starting P32) – Howard was actually looking really strong until the FS1 broadcast started talking about his great race and then he started bumping Anthony Alfredo which led to Howard eventually wrecking. He was running in the Top 20 and now we get him at a cheaper price at a better starting position. He’s not exactly running on a team with a ton of money so if he has a backup car it won’t be nearly as good as Thursday’s car, but he’s impressed in plenty of races this year regardless of the equipment. A Top 25 finish on Friday will get you 5X value.

Vinnie Miller ($4,800; Starting P23) – As noted in Thursday’s Playbook, Miller seems to be one of the few drivers that can move up well at Kentucky. He’s a bit risky considering this is the highest he’s ever started here. Even if he holds his position he’ll still get 21 points. If he moves up two spots he can get 5X value. If he can somehow finish 19th then he’ll get you 6X value. And there are drivers ahead of him that could fall back so I don’t mind going back to the well here with Miller.

Matt Mills ($4,700; Starting P30) – I didn’t play Mills at all on Thursday and I was a little worried about that considering the love he was getting in other DFS circles. However, I like him on Friday. He finished 30th on Thursday night, but he was a few laps down. He did finish the race running and only needs 23.5 points for 5X value. He’ll easily get passed by Jones, Hemric, and possibly Howard, we’re only asking for a Top 25 finish. He did manage to finish 23rd here last summer so there’s optimism.

Example Lineups

DK Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP1

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP2

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP3