Happy 4th of July Weekend everyone! So, we have our first road course of the season on tap for Xfinity this weekend. I’m ecstatic for this race. Given that we have a lot of road course data to examine, we have two practice sessions, and we have news about some teams shuffling drivers around, I’m absolutely fired up for this race. I’m playing more DFS for this race this weekend than I am for the Cup race. If you missed it, I published a fairly thorough Track Breakdown for the Xfinity race. Xfinity and Cup will run two different courses and since this is the first time NASCAR is running the road course at Indianapolis I thought it would be wise to cover the layout and highlight some drivers we may want to target this weekend. Now with that being said, you won’t find any tables in the Playbook since they’ve never run this course. However, there are tables covering each of the road course tracks that Xfinity runs. Those tables are available in the Track Breakdown and I will add some notes on practice in red as they become available. 

My strategy this week will be to target one-to-two guys that can collect the laps led dominator points. After that I’m building around PD plays and we have some solid value options across this board for this slate. We only get 62 laps and the stages are 20-20-22 so that gives us 46.5 dominator points available. So the key to taking down a GPP will rely on getting those points and finding some contrarian PD plays.

There’s no Dash 4 Cash this weekend so the extra $100,000 incentive for a couple drivers is off the table. This week we’ll start some road course ringers, and there’s no better Ringer than the Dinger…

NOTE: The Playbook has been updated following the two Xfinity Practice Sessions Friday afternoon. New drivers and updates to previously-mentioned drivers are listed in RED. Not every driver received an update, but I mostly touched on drivers who had the most standout performances and touched on drivers I was previously high on, but now have some concerns.

 

Drivers To Target

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,500; Starting P30) – There are two drivers I’ll he highlighting in this Playbook that I will have a filthy amount of exposure to this weekend. Allmendinger is going to be chalk once again. He didn’t run Pocono last week (good thing too because that race was a mess), but he’s started from the rear in almost every race this year and he’s looked fantastic in the 16-car for Kaulig Racing. He’s started outside the Top 25 in four races and finished in the Top 10 in all four races returning at least 5X value in each race along the way, even yielding 7X value a few times as well. Additionally, he’s a great road course racer. At the Cup level he won at Watkins Glen back in 2014 and had eight Top 10 finishes and 15 Top 20 finishes in 21 career Cup races at road courses. At the Xfinity level he won at the Roval last September, finished third last year at Mid-Ohio (after previously winning there back in 2013), and he finished 2nd at Watkins Glen two years ago. He will probably be 90-95% owned in Cash games which you just have to eat in that format. The PD is there and an 8th place finish will yield 5X value. But 6X value is easily in play for a guy who can finish in the Top 3. Update: To the surprise of nobody, Allmendinger was fast during practice on Friday. He and Cindric registered laps that were consistently faster than the field and it shows in the final practice results. With only 62 laps, Dinger won't lead a ton, but he can still get to the front and get plenty of position differential.

Austin Cindric ($10,500; Starting P10) – Cindric is actually my favorite play of the weekend. I have all the faith in the world in Allmendinger moving up through the field, but I love Cindric to potentially dominate this race. He made the early Track Breakdown preview earlier this week and for good reason. His driver profile on Driver Averages features three road courses in his top seven tracks. In two races at Mid-Ohio he’s finished first and second and led a total of 105 laps. In two races at the Roval he’s finish third both times. He won last year at Watkins Glen, and finished second last year at Road America. The bad news is that like Dinger, Cindric will be chalk as well. He’s starting P10 so he lends himself to position differential as well. He needs 52.5 point for 5X value, which is possible for him but he’ll need to get to the lead and log some dominator laps for that to happen. Another thing to note is that this track is owned by Roger Penske, his team’s owner. Penske purchased IMS within the last year and it would be a great look for Penske if Cindric went out and won this race for his first Xfinity win of the year. Update: Cindric looked amazing during practice. He's arguably the best road racer, aside from Allmendinger, in the field. He consistently logged fast laps and he is a strong candidate for dominator points on Saturday after a strong showing on Friday.

Chase Briscoe ($10,200; Starting P12) - $10,200 is far too cheap for a driver who has five Top 10’s in his last six races in addition to two wins in his last three races. Briscoe now has four wins on the year and he’s been logging dominator points as well. Even if he doesn’t get those dominator points this weekend if he can finish in 2nd then he still returns 5X value. Briscoe has five Top 10 finishes in six road course races and he won at the Roval two years ago. I’m thinking he may be slightly lower owned if the field is heavy on Cindric and Allmendinger so we’ll want to get some exposure to Briscoe since we know he’s pushing to get about 8-to-12 wins this year.

Justin Allgaier ($10,000; Starting P5) – It all depends on what driver shows up on Sunday. I’ll be light on exposure to Allgaier because $10K is a steep price for someone I don’t have a ton of faith in returning 5X value. He does have a decent road course resume though. In the last four years he has a win and three Top 6’s at Mid-Ohio, a win at Road America, four Top 7’s at Watkins Glen, and he finished fourth at the Roval last year. So the pedigree is there for him to finish in the Top 5. However, just simply finishing high won’t return the value we want. We need him to show up and not crap his pants on lap 45.

Noah Gragson ($9,800; Starting P8) – Gragson doesn’t have a ton of experience in terms of quantity at road courses, but he’s shown up and looked great in the few races he’s participated in. His worst result last year in road courses was at Watkins Glen where he finished 9th after starting 18th. That’s still a really good day. He logged Top 5 finishes at Mid-Ohio, Road America, and the Roval in Charlotte so he can run well even on limited experience. Luckily he gets practice time and may fly under the radar since most of the field will be heavy on Cindric and Allmendinger. I’m not opposed to a couple Gragson/Allmendinger or Gragson/Briscoe builds, but for the latter builds you really want to target PD value plays to round out that lineup.

Ross Chastain ($9,400; Starting P9) – We don’t necessarily regard Chastain as an elite road ringer, but he has momentum. He has three straight Top 3 finishes coming into IMS and he won the last two legs of Dash 4 Cash. He has seven Top 10 finishes in eight races since the season re-started. However, he only has one Top 10 finish in 14 road races at the Xfinity level. Practice will do him some good and his watermelon design for this weekend will be fun to cheer for. Limit exposure to just GPP’s. 

Justin Haley ($9,200; Starting P11) - I was hesitant about Haley heading in to practice, but he and his fellow Kaulig drivers (Allmendinger and Chastain) looked great and logged fast speeds. Haley will need a Top 5 finish for 5X value and even if he doesn't get the laps led, he could still get some of the fastest laps because he looked pretty comfortable on Friday afternoon.

Riley Herbst ($9,000; Starting P23) - Herbst is priced up more than we like to see, but he showed speed on Friday. I don't trust him enough to use him in Cash games, but the Top 12 speed he showed in both sessions put him in play for GPP's. He needs to finish in that range to return 5X value.

Alex Labbe ($8,900; Starting P22) – Part of me was hoping Labbe would start higher because there’s potential for chalk here. Labbe’s a pretty impressive road ringer. The Roval, Mid-Ohio, Road America, and Watkins Glen are all in his Top 10 courses based on Average Finish. Last year he didn’t finish worse than 16th at any of the four road courses including Top 10’s at Mid-Ohio and the Roval. Labbe hasn’t logged a ton of PD at these courses because he qualifies pretty well. That’s not to say he’s never started outside the Top 20 at these tracks. He has. But P22 marks his second-worse starting spot of any road course in his career. I’m not fond of the price tag because he really does need a Top 10 finish for 5X value, which he can do. I may limit exposure just to GPP’s though. Update: Labbe looked good in the first practice and then looked great in the second practice, which should be closer to track conditions for Saturday. He's a similar play to Clements in terms of price and PD, but Labbe could come with ownership since most of the field/industry is aware of Clements.

Jeremy Clements ($8,700; Starting P21) – Clements is such an easy guy to cheer for. He’s on a small team, but can just get you great results. In the last eight races he’s finished in the Top 13 five different times including a third-place finish last week at Pocono, so he’s got momentum. He’s also a pretty solid road course ringer. He hasn’t finished worse than 13th the last three years at Road America and he logged a win there back in 2017. Last year he finished 11th at Mid-Ohio, 11th at the Roval, and 11th at Watkins Glen. We’re witnessing some of Clements’ best racing at the moment and he’s still a friendly play for position differential this weekend. If he can move up and gets another 10th or 11th place finish the he will get you 5X value, but there’s room for more this weekend with him. Update: Clements yielded Top 10 speed in both practice sessions. The PD and speed make him a pretty safe play in both Cash games and GPP contests.

Brandon Gdovic ($8,400; Starting P38) – Gdovic was mentioned at the bottom of Wednesday’s Track Breakdown and given the starting spot I’ll get some exposure in GPP’s. Practice will be crucial for this guy because he hasn’t run in the Xfinity series since the Obama Administration. However, his more recent experience has been in the Lamborghini Super Trofeo Series, which specializes in road racing. Exposure will depend on how he looks in practice later on Friday. Given the somewhat hefty price tag, he’ll need a Top 20 finish to get 5X value, but he does have a Top 15 to his credit at Watkins Glen. Update: Gdovic turned in Top 20 laps in both practice sessions, which now makes him an even more intriguing PD play that may come with low ownership given the price tag. I'm hopeful the field avoids a relatively unknown name. But Gdovic has immense PD potential rolling off P38.

Michael Annett ($8,200; Starting P2) – I mentioned Annett in the Track Breakdown as a potential contrarian play this weekend and I think he’ll come in at even less ownership since he’s starting on the front row. As noted in the Track Breakdown, he’s normally a nice target for PD at road courses. Sadly we don’t get that this weekend, but I’m not ready to completely fade him. Will I go a little softer on exposure to him? Sure. But I do like him to possibly get to the front early and lead laps. There are only 62 laps on Saturday and it’s a course nobody in this series has raced at before. At least he has the luxury of being in front early on. Update: Annett had his up's and down's during Friday's practice. He spun out a few times getting comfortable with the track and logged speed outside the Top 10, which aren't a great sign for a guy who is starting on the front row and could easily get passed by other guys at the top of the list in owner points.

Brandon Brown ($7,400; Starting P24) – We’ll need to get rid of the bitter taste he left in our mouths last weekend because I do like Brown’s upside again this week rolling off P24. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at road courses but the resume is decent. Last August at Road America he only finished ten laps before departing with a suspension issue. But he finished 24th after starting 32nd at Mid-Ohio and finished 17th at the Roval and 18th at Watkins Glen. He’ll need his best career finish this weekend at a new track but he’ll get practice in. He needs a Top 15 finish for 5X value.

Jeb Burton ($7,200; Starting P1) – I’m a little surprised that Burton is getting the call for this race in the 8-car. He’s only run at the Superspeedways this year, but he’s made the most of it. Perhaps the reason Hemric gets the weekend off is because DH sucks at road courses. Burton came close to winning Talladega a few weeks ago, but ultimately finished third. He looked incredible though and he’s rolling off the pole for Saturday’s race. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at road courses though and he’s on the pole which means he can only go backward. I do like the potential for him to surprise some people once again and log some dominator points, but he’ll need a good amount to cover the cost of however many spots he falls in this race.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,100; Starting P25) – Oh boy did DK ever screw up the pricing on Thomas Joseph Martins. We’ve seen TJM priced over $8,000 in some races and now he’s down to a measly $6,100 so we’ll take advantage of the discount in GPP’s. Is he a risk? Absolutely, especially because he normally doesn’t start this high. But perhaps it’s because he’s starting so high that they’ve muted his price. If he was starting outside the Top 30 he’d probably be $1,600 more. He does have a respectable resume at Mid-Ohio (two Top 20 finishes), but the rest of the road courses are a mixed bag for him. Getting practice time on this track will be huge for him, but I’m loving the price tag in GPP’s. He’s a guy that’s just been struck with bad luck unfortunately. If he moves up and finished 19th that’s 5X value. But if you do want to save some salary and find other drivers that can deliver 5X value then I encourage you to read on. Update: TJM only ran four laps in the final session, but the car was faster than the first session so I'm thinking they found the speed they liked for the race and didn't want to risk putting the car in the grass. His speed was just outside the Top 20, but he's still in a good spot for GPP builds.

Vinnie Miller ($5,800; Starting P35) – I’m very curious about Vinnie Miller this weekend. He’s typically a guy we only target for Daytona or Talladega. But he has a solid resume at IMS and I know they’re running a different course, but he’s clearly comfortable in Indy. At the oval for IMS he has an average start of 32.5 and an average finish of 21.5 and while the results for him at road courses won’t blow you out of the water, take a look at what he’s done:

  • Road America: AVG Start: 37.5; AVG Finish: 27.5; +20 total PD
  • Charlotte Roval: AVG Start: 38: AVG Finish: 28; +20 total PD
  • Mid-Ohio: AVG Start: 36.5; AVG Finish: 30.5; +12 total PD
  • Watkins Glen: AVG Start: 38.5; AVG Finish: 35.5; +6 total PD

It’s worth mentioning that his first race at Mid-Ohio and both races at Watkins Glen resulted in mechanical issues. And I’d be concerned for those same issues on Saturday if we didn’t have practice. He’s shown he can move up in a good car and he doesn’t even need a Top 20 finish to return 5X value. Finishing 25th will mean he moved up ten spots and that would result in 29 points for 5X value. A Top 20 finish could mean over 6X value.

Bayley Currey ($5,500; Starting P32) – So Currey isn’t really the greatest road ringer we’ve ever seen. He lacks experience having only run the Roval twice and both of those races resulted in early exits for him with mechanical issues. But practice can only do him good and he’s cheap for a guy starting outside the Top 30. We’ve seen him get a few Top 25 finishes, even a few in the Top 20. He needs a Top 24 finish for 5X value and if practice goes well for him then I could see that happening.

Preston Pardus ($4,900; Starting P19) - Pardus was a pleasant surprise during Friday's practices. He showed speed and lap times in the Top 15. Even if he holds position and finishes 19th he'll still return 5X value and if he cracks the Top 15 he'll get you 6X value.

Jesse Little ($4,700; Starting P13) – DK just continues to WHIFF on Jesse Little’s pricing. This is now the third straight race they’ve priced Little under $6K and he’s gone out in two straight races and posted 39 DFS points. Last week he was a gem at sub-$5K as he logged a 10th place finish. I’m not afraid to go back to the well one more time with him. He’s coming off five straight Top 20 finishes and for whatever reason, DK keeps dropping the price tag. I’ll add the caveat that Little lacks experience on road courses. This is his first year in Xfinity and he hasn’t run a road course yet. Fortunately for him, he gets to add two practice sessions under his belt. Keep in mind, even if he falls back a few spots and finishes just 17th, that’s still close to 5X value. If you don’t like the risk of Little this week then the next driver provides for PD. Update: I'm a little worried about Little right now. He ran one lap in the first practice and took his car to the garage. I can't find anything online or on social media explaining what's going on with his car so I'm hoping for better news on Saturday. As of right now, he's a slight fade for me.

Stephen Leicht ($4,600; Starting P28) – I am jacked up for Leicht this weekend. Normally we fade this guy because he parks the guy a few laps in without a sponsor. Hence why his DFS results are so poor. However, MBM is shifting their drivers around this weekend. Chad Finchum draws the short stick and will go to the 66-car while Timmy Hill moves to the 13-car and Leicht gets into the 61-car that Hill has been driving recently. This means Leicht should run the whole race. There is still some risk, but last year at Watkins Glen and the Roval he moved up seven spots each race and finished Top 20 in both races. He didn’t have the same results at Mid-Ohio or Road America, but this will be better equipment for him this weekend. All he needs to do is finish 24th for 5X value. That’s it. That’s hysterical. If he can navigate through the field and finish in the Top 20 then that’s 7X value at such a cheap price tag. Update: I didn't see Leicht in the second practice, I'm currently not sweating that one too much. He looked fine in the first practice and showcased Top 20 speed for most of practice before other drivers logged faster laps at the very end of the session. He's dirt cheap and in a car that will allow him to run the whole race. It's still a great spot to target him.

 

Example Lineups

DK Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

This build leaves you with $900 left for pivots. For example, you could get off from Pardus and Labbe and pivot to a couple drivers like Bilicki and Gdovic.

DK GPP1

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP2

 

 

 

 

 

 

DK GPP3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* I realize that I have Pardus in all four builds. Didn't intend for that to happen. That does reflect my exposure to him in general. I thought he looked great at practice yesterday. If you're not wanting to play him as much you can pivot to Stephen Leicht who should run the whole race.*