We’ve got Talladega this weekend! And as always with Superspeedway races we need to be cautious and truly play within our means. The DFS contests for both Xfinity and Cup will be tempting, but if you’re new to NASCAR DFS do not put a ton of money on these races. This is an okay track to play Cash games with, but GPP’s are rough because of the unpredictability of Talladega and Daytona. Superspeedway races are always fun to watch and I’m very fortunate that I landed a ticket for Sunday’s Cup race. But DFS for these races is a big gamble as you are just hoping your drivers can avoid The Big One.

A pretty simple method for Cash games is to just identify drivers starting further toward the rear. With superspeedways you’ll see drivers racing in packs and there are numerous passes and the laps led are normally fairly dispersed. That’s not to say some guys won’t lead 30-40 laps, but the more aggressive driving typically occurs closer to the front and middle of the pack. Identifying PD plays at the rear won’t look promising at the beginning of the race, but again, you just want drivers to avoid wrecking out here and the back of the field drivers can at least see the wrecks in front of them and hopefully they can avoid the damage.

DK PriceStarting Pos.Car No.DriverTeamRaces Last 4 YearsLaps LedFastest LapsQuality PassesAVG. StartAVG. FinishTop 15 Rate (%)
$10,8003416AJ AllmendingerKaulig Racing0      
$10,500127Justin AllgaierJR Motorsports4722654910.2510.2587.5
$10,3001120Harrison BurtonJoe Gibbs Racing0      
$10,100498Chase BriscoeStewart-Haas Racing29323112.51060.1
$10,000910Ross ChastainKaulig Racing48716820.7524.7535.6
$9,80059Noah GragsonJR Motorsports21911167177.544.3
$9,600722Austin CindricTeam Penske2342071417.580.3
$9,400619Brandon JonesJoe Gibbs Racing437831912.318.7562.4
$9,2002736Alex LabbeDGM Racing20212222.524.535.5
$9,0002492Josh WilliamsDGM Racing20614923.51733.8
$8,80088Jeb BurtonJR Motorsports103104121863.8
$8,6003193Myatt SniderRSS Racing0      
$8,5001951Jeremy ClementsJeremy Clements Racing48312031.7523.2521.9
$8,30021Michael AnnettJR Motorsports31617241917.370.7
$8,2001021Anthony AlfredoRichard Childress Racing0      
$8,0002002Brett MoffittOur Motorsports10214461388.5
$7,8003244Tommy Joe MartinsMartins Motorsports1006281825.2
$7,6002218Riley HerbstJoe Gibbs Racing0      
$7,400111Justin HaleyKaulig Racing1011475793.8
$7,300339Ryan SiegRSS Racing421424623.513.540.3
$7,200130Jeffrey EarnhardtJD Motorsports10212472683.6
$7,0001568Brandon BrownBrandonbilt Motorsports10171321538.9
$6,900375Matt MillsBJ McLeod Motorsports101026170.9
$6,7003361Timmy HillHettori Racing Enterprises30811531.324.323.5
$6,50039126Colin GarrettSam Hunt Racing0      
$6,3002107Gray GauldingSS Green Light Racing1021478273.5
$6,1003013Chad FinchumMBM200036.537.50.4
$6,0002947Joe NemechekMike Harmon Racing1011023318.7
$5,8002574Mike HarmonMike Harmon Racing311233271.5
$5,6002308Joe Graf Jr.SS Green Light Racing0      
$5,500184Jesse LittleJD Motorsports0      
$5,4003599Mason MasseyBJ McLeod Motorsports0      
$5,2002878Vinnie MillerBJ McLeod Motorsports2047271817.1
$5,100166BJ McLeodJD Motorsports30073125.70.6
$5,0001790Caesar BacarellaDGM Racing0      
$4,9001415Robby LyonsJD Motorsports0      
$4,8003866John JacksonMBM100032321.7
$4,6003638Jeff GreenRSS Racing41957630.7524.520.1
$4,5002652Kody VanderwalMeans Motorsports0     

 

As noted in the track breakdown this is a 2.66-mile track with turns banked over 30 degrees. It’s a 300-mile race so there will only be about 113 laps. Not a ton of availability for dominator points here. Every driver in the field is on the table. Talladega will take cars out without bias or prejudice, but below are some drivers worth keeping an eye on. We also typically see about 10-15 drivers not finish these superspeedway races so don’t be afraid to leave money on the table when building lineups this week. We’re also going to see a lot of passing. If you noticed in the table above, several drivers have over 100-200 quality passes. That’s just how it is at Talladega and Daytona so don’t be surprised to see drivers moving up and down frequently in the running order.

 

Dash 4 Cash Drivers

AJ Allmendinger ($10,800; Starting P34) – Expect Dinger to be chalky. He’s in the D4C contest, he’s starting toward the rear, and he can easily move up here. He actually finished third in last summer’s Daytona race in Xfinity but was disqualified after the race. He’s in a really good car, he’s shown speed in his return, and he won last weekend’s D4C contest in Miami. Dinger is playable in both Cash and GPP formats even at the heavy price tag.

Chase Briscoe ($10,100; Starting P4) – Briscoe is coming off winning the second Xfinity race last weekend in Miami, so by rule, he qualifies for Dash 4 Cash. He’s rolling off at a solid starting spot toward the front and he should be able to avoid early wrecks if he can stay toward the front. He’s only raced at Talladega twice finishing 4th and 16th.  At Daytona he’s finished 5th, 12th, and 35th in three races. He’s a solid play to win the race and can most certainly win D4C.

Ross Chastain ($10,000; Starting P9) – It’s going to be an interesting race for Kaulig Racing this weekend. Chastain joins his teammate, AJ Allmendinger, in the Dash 4 Cash contest for this race, and Justin Haley is on the pole. If these three can get to the front they would be wise to work together. Drafting and running with a group is a recipe for success at Talladega and Daytona. Ross has not had the greatest luck here lately. I’m not wild about his prospects in Cash games, but he’s a good GPP play.

Brandon Jones ($9,400; Starting P6) – Jones has a pretty decent history at superspeedways. He finished second two years ago at Talladega and he finished fourth at Daytona this year after starting sixth. Jones has been a little hit-or-miss, but he’s been decent the last few races on superspeedways. He’s the cheapest of the four D4C drivers and he’ll be chalky like all four of these drivers.

 

Driver Pool

Joe Nemechek is not racing on Saturday. He is going to be replaced by Tim Viens. I don't really know why as Viens will likely just go out there and do laps...

Also, Jeb Burton, Mason Massey, and AJ Allmendinger will go to the rear for failing tech three times.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500; Starting P12) – Allgaier has a lot of good fortune at this track. Last year he started 11th and finished 28th after wrecking, but in the six previous races at Talladega he never finished outside the Top 8. In his last three races here he’s also led 72 laps. He finds speed here and has plenty of experience at this track. He wrecked out of February’s Daytona race after leading 23 laps. So I’m hoping he’s gotten the bad luck out of his system and finishes this race inside the Top 5.

Harrison Burton ($10,300; Starting P11) – It’s crazy to think that Harrison Burton hasn’t finished a single Xfinity race this year outside the Top 10. He won the first Miami race last weekend and finished second at Daytona back in February. That being said, that’s his only race in Xfinity at a superspeedway so there’s some risk here. However, the starting spot presents some PD for a guy who will have speed and who we’ve seen win twice this year.

Noah Gragson ($9,800; Starting P5) – Gragson will be on a mission Saturday. He arguably should’ve won both Xfinity races last weekend in Miami. Last Sunday he was cruising to a victory at Miami, winning Dash 4 Cash, and qualifying for this week’s Dash 4 Cash. Late cautions screwed him in both races. Now he’s out of the D4C for this week and will look to steal a win here. He has had good fortune at Talladega in two races as he’s never finished worse than 11th here. He won at Daytona earlier this year so he’s a solid driver at superspeedways. The motivation is there if he can avoid The Big One.

Austin Cindric ($9,600; Starting P7) – Cindric is in a Penske car. Penske cars make for great plate racing cars. We already liked Cindric based off his recent performances and tendency to work his way to the front. In three races in 2019 between Daytona and Talladega, he had three Top 5 finishes. This past February he started 15th at Daytona and finished 25th since he fell victim to a crash. He’s a pretty solid GPP candidate this weekend.

Myatt Snider ($8,600; Starting P31) – I just wouldn’t be able to live with myself if I didn’t mention Snider. He didn’t hit 5X value in either Miami race last week, but that doesn’t mean the car failed him. For starters his price was elevated, and he started on the pole for the second race on Sunday. That being said he still finished 7th on Sunday and 15th last Saturday. This week he needs 43 points for 5X value. So he needs to at least move up and finish 16th. Given the chaos of this race he could easily navigate up there. But he could also find himself in the wreck as we saw at Daytona in February when he was on the pole in the 21-car. But the PD is there for him so I don’t hate him in either Cash or GPP formats.

Anthony Alfredo ($8,200; Starting P10) – Alfredo’s strictly a GPP play on Saturday. The price tag is high and the starting spot isn’t great. Plus, his only experience at Talladega was in the Truck race last October where he started 16th and finished 15th. But that’s a different style of racing and as fast as the 21-car for Richard Childress Racing has been, there’s obvious risk at Talladega.

Brett Moffitt ($8,000; Starting P20) – I like Moffitt this week as a GPP play. He started P6 at Talladega last year and finish 13th. He’s been a pretty solid PD guy most weeks. However, last week at Miami was a nightmare for him in both the Xfinity race and the Truck race. He wrecked out of both and I was hoping he’d run in the Sunday race starting P35 but he dropped out. I’m thinking he may have just been worn out or dehydrated after running back-to-back races, but he’s back in the car Saturday at a pretty hefty price. He needs a Top 12 finish for 5X value.

Tommy Joe Martins ($7,800; Starting P32) – Tommy Joe has had some crap luck lately, but he did have a Top 20 finish at Miami on Sunday. Historically at Talladega he hasn’t been that bad. He has an average start of 28.5 and an average finish of 16. If he can move up and finish 18th that’ll be 5X value. If there are a couple extra wrecks that’ll help his cause. Hopefully he avoids said wrecks.

Justin Haley ($7,400; Starting P1) – Justin Haley is on the pole which means he can only go backwards. Additionally, there aren’t as many laps to lead, but I will say this, he’s a pretty good driver at superspeedways. Last April here he started fifth and finished seventh and consistently ran in the top ten. He finished sixth at Daytona back in February’s Xfinity race and don’t forget he won at Daytona in the Cup series last July due to a rain-shortened race that Matt and I were in attendance for. So, while it’s obvious he probably goes backward, he runs pretty well at superspeedways.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300; Starting P3) – Sieg is normally a guy I don’t get a ton of exposure to, save for last week when he did log some fast laps and lead a few as well. He’s starting toward the front which means he can only go backward, but I’m willing to take a shot on him in GPP’s. He’s finished inside the Top 20 in five of six races and has finished in the Top 16 in each of his last three races at Talladega. He also finished ninth back in February at Daytona. He would definitely need his best career finish at Talladega to really reward owners in GPP’s, but we’ve been seeing a more concentrated effort on his team’s part to get stage points for the playoffs.

Timmy Hill ($6,600; Starting P33) – FA subscriber fantasyomega will appreciate this mention in the Playbook, but Timmy Hill is in play this week for the Xfinity race. I’ll only ever consider him when they race at Daytona, Talladega, or Bristol. Luckily this is one of those races. He started 26th and finished 3rd at Daytona back in February. He wrecked at Talladega last year but in five career races here he has an average start of 31.2 and an average finish of 21.6 so a Top 20 finish returns plenty of value and it’s feasible he gets up there.

Colin Garrett ($6,500; Starting P39) – Garrett’s PD is great, but he’s still a bit risky. He’s been a gem for position differential the last few races after he gained +23 spots combined in both Miami races last weekend. He’s pretty affordable and starting way back. He probably gets separated from the main pack as the race gets started, but that’s fine. As long as he stays on the lead lap, which is possible, he should avoid the wrecks and generate more PD.

Vinnie Miller ($5,200; Starting P28) – Miller is at his best on superspeedways. If you look at his Driver Averages profile you’ll see his best average finishes come at Daytona and Talladega. In two races at Talladega he has a combined +18 position differential, and he has back-to-back Top 15 finishes in his last two Daytona races. He only needs to move up five spots and finish 23rd  to hit 5X value. But if he can finish inside the Top 20, which he’s more than capable of, then 6X value is in play.

Jeff Green ($4,600; Starting P36) – Green is normally a start & park driver, but he does tend to run the whole race at superspeedways. He had engine issues last year at Talladega, but he finished 13th and 10th the prior two years and he had two Top 10 finishes at Daytona last year. We’ll try to get more clarity on his S&P status for Saturday’s race, but I’m comfortable playing him at the moment. He’s cheap and has PD on his side.

 

As mentioned earlier, you can easily play any driver in the field today. 20-30% of the field may not finish so it’s really all about avoiding the Big One. Just because some drivers didn’t make the above list doesn’t mean I don’t like them. Be smart this weekend with your bankroll and best of luck!

Example Lineups

Note: We can't stress this enough, but this isn't a week to plug-and-play Example Lineups, with exception to the Cash lineup in Cash games. These are meant to show you who I personally like this week as well as how you should be comfortable leaving money on the table.

Cash Game Lineup

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPP Lineup 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPP Lineup 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPP Lineup 3