NASCAR DFS: Alsco 300 & Example Lineups (FREE PREVIEW)
Dan Malin previews the Xfinity race later tonight from Charlotte Motor Speedway with the best DFS plays on the slate!
Welcome to the first Playbook for the Xfinity Series! Given the circumstances of so much racing right now and the availability for Xfinity DFS, Matt and I decided to offer up some Playbooks for these races since they were asked for in the NASCAR DFS chat. Now I don’t believe we’ll be doing Playbooks for the Gander Truck Series, but I’ll be answering questions in the chat for that series. They just don’t run nearly as much Xfinity or Cup races and if you look at the upcoming schedule there are only three Truck races over the next month while there are six Xfinity races so we’ll have you covered with a Playbook and Lineups for Xfinity, but we’ll still be in the chat for the Truck series.
If anyone watched Sunday’s race, you’re obviously as frustrated as I am. After 300 laps I was up $1,200+ and even if it ended with Chase running away with it, I would’ve been fine breaking even. But with two laps to go in Overtime, a lot of my higher-owned drivers hit pit road… I don’t understand the concept behind it, but I did not finish in the green after building some of my more confident Cash lineups. So, if you took a bit of a loss on Sunday you’re welcome to play this slate, but play it light. There are a few frustrating factors here too…
We need to address the elephant in the room, and it’s a big one: Kyle Busch. Busch is an Xfinity and Truck race wizard. He will be priced up ($17,000 on DraftKings as a matter of fact), and despite costing approximately one-third of your salary he will be chalk. Here’s a great example: On Tuesday, for the originally-scheduled Darlington race, Busch was $16,000 and was in about 90% of Cash contests. In the single-entry $25 Cash game I entered he was 94.5% owned. So some folks (like myself) used those numbers from Tuesday’s contests and re-entered lineups for Thursday contests since the race was delayed from Tuesday until Thursday, and the Tuesday contests had locked. His Cash ownership was still about 80-90% while his GPP ownership ranged from 50-60%. So in Cash games, you basically have to lock him in if he’s going to be heavily owned. If he doesn’t pay off then you still have a good shot at Cashing if he’s owned in 90% of the lineups.
Now his ownership was so high because he was also starting 26th, finished second, and led almost all of Stage 2 while registering plenty of fastest laps. Even at $16,000 he basically returned 6X value. If playing Xfinity and Truck slates you’ll definitely need exposure to Busch especially since there is no practice, nor is there qualifying. Busch’s practice will come in Sunday’s Coca Cola 600 Cup race. I’m not overly worried about fatigue for Busch especially running the 600 the night before. He’s no stranger to running multiple races in previous weekends so he should be fine considering the three races following the Coca Cola 600 on Sunday night are much shorter. Understand this, by drafting Kyle Busch in Xfinity or Truck contests, you have to know that you have to pay down considerably. So by taking Busch and all his chalkiness, that means the cheaper options starting toward the back will present themselves as chalk also. My Cash lineup on the Tuesday slates for the last Xfinity race saw all six of my drivers at 79.4% ownership. It’s simply a byproduct of rostering Busch.
Monday’s race will be 300 miles, so that’s 200 laps with stages broken up into 45-45-110. And the starting order was determined Saturday afternoon and here it is:
And look at that, Kyle Busch starting 18th, the chalkiest chalk there ever was. If you’re new to NASCAR DFS and need an understanding of the scoring on DraftKings, look below:
- Place Differential: +/- 1 point per position gained or lost
- Fastest Lap: 0.5 points per lap
- Laps Led: 0.25 points per lap led
- Points also rewarded depending on where driver finishes race. First place gets 46 points, second place gets 42, third place gets 41, and so on…
Now there are 200 laps tonight and it’s quite possibly Busch leads 100+ laps so we need to find value to fit him in.
Drivers To Target
This will be updated throughout the day. I’m going to be an internet nerd mostly deep diving for stats and news leading up to lineup lock and the release of the Example Lineups. I will provide time stamps and post updates in red as the day progresses.
Kyle Busch ($17,000) – lol DUH. Busch presents tremendous upside and CHALK. He was $16,000 in his last Xfinity race on Thursday and he returned 95.75 points. And to be honest, if he wasn’t caught speeding on pit road after the second stage he would’ve started the race at the front and probably ran away with it, garnering more laps led and fastest laps. Busch starts 18th on Monday night and should easily get into the Top 10 by lap ten, and Top 5 by lap 20. That’s actually the worst-case scenario. Best case is the he moves up through the field faster than he did at Darlington considering he knows the track better than the field and if he can get to the lead (which he should) then he’ll get a ton of laps led while registering fastest laps as well. We call these dominator points for a reason since Busch could dominate the DFS slate once again. Expect Busch to be at least 80-90% owned in Cash games and 60% owned in GPP’s. He logged a Top 5 finish Sunday night and is hungry for a win, whether it comes Monday or Tuesday night… Or both! We’ve also seen Kyle get crushed with pit road penalties. On Sunday he was running Top 3 and had to fall to 19th with a pit road penalty, while last Thursday he won Stage 2 in the Xfinity race but was caught speeding off pit road and had to drop to about 18th I believe. If fading Kyle today, you’re doing it with the understanding that he’ll easily move up in this field while at the same time you’re hoping for similar troubles.
Chase Briscoe ($12,000) – This price is STEEP for Chase. I’d honestly much rather build around Kyle Busch, but Briscoe gets the mention because of the emotional run he was on last week. Last week’s win at Darlington was exciting and incredibly emotional for Briscoe and his family following some awful personal news he encountered on Tuesday. He has two wins under his belt this year and some laps led as well. I loved him last week, but may keep exposure minimal considering he has a modest history at this track. Last year he finished 19th after starting 11th and the year before he finished 11th after starting 9th. However, you can hang your hat on the fact he finished in the Top 5 in the first two stages last year. He’ll be tough to pair with Kyle Busch, but if fading Busch then Briscoe is in play.
Harrison Burton ($11,300) – Here’s another guy who is priced awfully, but he has finished in the Top 10 every Xfinity race so far this year, with four Top 5’s prior to the season being put on hold for two months. His starting spot of P11 isn’t awful considering he started 12th last week, but he’s a victim of an inflated price tag this week. Thanks DraftKings.
Justin Allgaier ($10,600) – I didn’t have any exposure to Allgaier last week. He has experience and typically runs well, but the finishes haven’t been great for him this year. He was actually running in the lead in Stage 3 prior to a caution that sent everyone to pit and he fell out of the top two. I’m a little more flexible this week with Allgaier. I’ll plug him in to a few lineups I don’t play Kyle Busch. If you try to play Busch and Allgaier together you’re leaving yourself with little money where you really need to go dumpster diving. But Allgaier was the runner-up last year at Charlotte and has the pedigree to possibly go out and win. PD is minimal and Kyle Busch is coming up behind him. Allgaier needs to lead a lot of laps to return value.
Daniel Hemric ($10,100) – Anyone who followed the Cup series content from a year ago knows I have a soft spot for Hemric. He got sent back to Xfinity after one year in the Cup series, but he’s been solid in Xfinity especially last week where he started 23rd and he finished sixth. This week he starts 12th so the Cash game appeal isn’t as prevalent, but he’ll make a few of my GPP builds. In three Xfinity races at Charlotte, Hemric has an average finish on 9.0 and he carries Cup racing experience so he could/should crack the top ten Monday night.
Noah Gragson ($9,500) – Last week, Gragson was a bit of a fade since he started on the pole at Darlington, but he led a healthy amount of laps. This week he starts 10th, and you know where he started in his last race in Xfinity at Charlotte? Ding Ding! P10! Gragson finished inside the Top 10 at the end of each stage last year and while he only led one lap last year he did finish fourth in this race exactly one year ago. If you’re the superstitious type, he’s starting in the exact same spot he was at a year ago and maybe he obviously wants a better result. He has PD upside and laps led upside if he can find a way to stave off Busch.
Alex Labbe ($9,200) – If they were running the Roval course, Labbe would be so damn chalky. And he’s still going to be chalky given where he’s starting (P37), so he can really only go forward. However, in his two prior races at Charlotte (2017 and 2018) he started 29th and 27th at both races and finished outside the Top 30 each time. The starting position this year is wildly favorable and his worst finish so far this year is 22nd so he’s a solid PD play, but he just comes at a price.
Brandon Jones ($8,900) – Jones has looked solid at the last two Charlotte races, but the final results haven’t been in his favor as hell fell back. I like the P2 start for tonight’s race and we’ve seen him lead laps and win at Phoenix earlier this year. He’s a great GPP play if building a “fade Kyle” lineup, but the position differential isn’t quite in his favor.
Ross Chastain ($8,700) – Chastain starts on the pole for Monday’s race and the nice part is that he got some practice in the Cup race on Sunday night. He started 21st and finished 22nd in the Coca Cola 600, but you’ll take some value in the practice he got Sunday night. In Thursday’s Xfinity race he started ninth and finished eighth. Not a ton of upside there but starting on the pole means he could log some laps led and hopefully he doesn’t taper off too much from the lead until Kyle Busch gets to the front. He’s a bit risky in Cash games considering he can’t gain any points through position differential, but he can certainly lose plenty. GPP only play.
Jeremy Clements ($8,500) – Clements is a position differential gem. He’s starting 27th and could easily get into the Top 15, maybe the Top 10. Last Thursday Clements started 30th and finished 12th. If he can get another 12th place finish Monday night that’s +15 points in PD with the additional points for where he finishes. If he can get a few fastest laps under his belt, that helps as well. But it’s hard to imagine him not finishing inside the Top 20. He has plenty of Xfinity experience here and he typically doesn’t start this low at Charlotte, and based off his finish last week at Darlington and his 13th place finish last year at Charlotte, it would be surprising if Clements didn’t gain some positive PD.
Austin Hill ($7,900) – Hill normally runs in the Truck series, but he’s made some Xfinity appearances this year. Last year at Charlotte, running in the trucks, he starting 20th and finished sixth. He presents great PD starting 26th and maybe he steals a Top 15 finish. This should be some solid practice for Hill who is starting P5 in Tuesday night’s race.
Jesse Little ($7,800) – DraftKings’ pricing is completely jacked for this race, and even Jesse Little is priced too high. He was $6,400 last week and logged -10 points, so why they priced him up is beyond me. He’s starting 34th so PD upside is in play. Little’s results won’t jump off the page for Xfinity, but this is a good starting spot for him. The last two years in the Truck series, Little has managed to start outside the Top 20 and log two Top 16 finishes. If he can find similar magic here and move into the Top 20 then he’s a decent play. I’m not expecting a Top 10 out of him though.
Michael Annett ($7,700) – We live in a world where Jesse Little is priced over Michael Annett. Annett’s results haven’t been in his favor, that’s clear. But among all the drivers in the field, he has a fairly stable resume at Charlotte especially the last two years. He’s logged back-to-back Top 12 finishes the last two Xfinity races at Charlotte with a +15 position differential across both races. Now he is starting P9, but I think he comes in at low ownership in this race.
Three-Driver Special ($6,900-$7,100) – This is a first for almost any Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook but I’m grouping three drivers together: Ryan Sieg, Riley Herbt, and Justin Haley. All three are within $200 of each other on DK and they’re all starting in the Top 7. They all have respectable performances this year as well, but they just don’t present too much upside. Perhaps that changes Monday night. Sieg has back-to-back Top 13 finishes at Charlotte, and hasn’t finished worse than 11th at this race. Herbst starts fifth and likely goes backwards, but at $7,000 he has GPP upside, and Justin Haley has a Top 5 finish at this track from a year ago. These three are strictly GPP plays.
Garrett Smithley ($6,600) – Smithley hasn’t made a NASCAR Playbook since iRacing, but I’m intrigued by him Monday night. His equipment won’t be great Monday night, but in his last two Xfinity races at Charlotte he started 30th and 36th while finishing 17th and 14th. Monday night he starts 24th so we’re hoping for a similar finish to what we’ve seen from his the last couple years.
Joe Graf Jr. ($6,000) – Graf, like Clements, presents some position differential upside for us this week. He was a Cash game gem last week as a sub-$6,000 player. At Darlington he started 36th and finished 19th for +17 points from PD alone. Given his price tag he provided about 3X value right there. Graf starts 28th Monday night so while the PD may not be as abundant, he should be a popular option in Kyle Busch lineups.
Timmy Hill ($5,100) – Timmy Hill might be a play I plug into a few lineups, possibly my cash lineup as well. And on the surface, that may be surprising. His more recent runs at Charlotte haven’t been beneficial for Hill. He tends to go backwards at Charlotte with ten straight races resulting outside in 30th or worse for Hill. That being said, he did have a lot of money come in from winnings and sponsors that have been invested in his Cup and Xfinity car. Last Thursday at Darlington he started 28th and finished 22nd. He’s starting 25th so I’m not overly excited about playing him in Cash lineups if I have to, but he’s a GPP play at his price tag for sure.
Other GPP Plays – Brett Moffitt (really liking Moffitt for GPP builds), Myatt Snider, Colby Howard, Kody Vanderwal. Vanderwal's numbers from Darlington are deceiving. He was scored from P21 but had to drop to the rear at the start of the race and finished 32nd. Tonight he's starting P35 so there's tremendous PD for him.
FADE - Jeff Green has said he'll start & park the car. He doesn't have a sponsor and he's already acknowledged on Twitter that he won't be finishing the race.
Now I’m prefacing this section with the caveat that there is a chance that if you own Kyle Busch this week you may not double your money in Cash games. In plenty of my double up’s last week I entered $25 and won ~$35 because Busch is such chalk that he presents sometimes identical lineups to differentiate in some cash games. On Thursday I found people submitting the exact same lineup that I submitted for the Tuesday slate. That’s going to happen when Kyle Busch is available on the Xfinity slate. So, we’ll try to find ways to go against the grain a bit for Cash games.
DraftKings wants to challenge you to pay down for guys starting near the front, and I’ll bite on some GPP lineups as you’ll see once they drop later today. The pricing for this race is weird, so tread carefully.
Check back around 6:30pm ET for published Example Lineups. And keep this in mind: This is a free article. Numerous people are going to view it, so if you simply copy and play the Example Lineups and throw them into DFS contests, you’re going to be splitting pots, especially in Cash since Busch is chalk and plenty of DFS touts are going to play him. You have to differentiate with Xfinity… Let’s go FANation!
I have been struggling with a cash lineup all day. It’s TOUGH. Last week Kyle Busch was 85%+ in Xfinity cash contests. I think the exposure will be slightly lighter for tonight’s race, but I could easily be wrong. His price tag is gaudy and it does present a challenge when building lineups. Most of my Kyle Busch builds are paired with Howard who is rolling off P29 and with him you just want him to move up four-to-six spots. We get a lot out of Alex Labbe, but again his price tag sucks. He can get to the Top 20, but he really NEEDS to get up there to hit 5X value. I’m a big fan of Myatt Snider running in the 21-car tonight as well. You have $700 left over to find some pivots if you want. If you wanted to pivot here, you could swap out Smithley and Snider and swap in Williams and Graf.
So this is a Kyle Busch fade lineup as you can see. I’ve noted in the chat that Jones is a solid play to win the race, while Moffitt, Labbe, and Williams provide some PD upside. The one pivot I would suggest is going down from Haley to Snider.
This one is a little more contrarian. You get the PD from Labbe and Moffitt while targeting Briscoe, Sieg, and Haley who are all starting in the Top 8 and are dark horses to get laps led and win. The pivot would be off Haley since he has the weakest PD upside. If you wanted to get off Haley you might have to also pivot off Briscoe to free up more cash. You could swap those two out for maybe Austin Hill and Justin Allgaier.
Kyle Busch GPP Lineup
Enter at your own risk, I’m throwing this one in the Happy Hour and Slingshot contests. I like this one quite a bit. I like the Busch/Hill/Jones stack but if you wanted to pivot off the remaining three drivers you probably have to pivot off Jones since Snider doesn't open up enough salary, which would make Busch and Hill the locks of this lineup.