It’s no secret that there has been a significant uptick in power and home runs in recent years. The steroid era ushered in levels of offensive production via power that Major League Baseball had never seen. And once MLB did away with performance enhancing drugs there was significant regression back to the norm, and coincidentally enough attendance suffered a bit. Now we’re seeing more home runs once again. They aren’t necessarily coming from banned substances (although some might), but rather an increased effort on the part of players to lift the ball into the air more. After all, more home runs equate to larger contracts for free agents so who can blame them? And we aren’t stupid. Major League Baseball is helping the matter with adjustments to the ball to give them a little more pop.

Back in 2010, there were just 18 players that hit at least 30 home runs. In 2013, that number dropped to 14 players, and then to 11 in 2014. Around 2016 we started experiencing more offensive production with 36 players ripping 30+ home runs, with 92 players hitting 20+ dingers. Fresh off 2019, there were a whopping 53 big league players with 30+ round trippers with 96 total players hitting 20+ home runs. It’s just a direct correlation and there’s an emphasis on players putting the ball in the air more. Here’s a look at the top power hitters in terms of fly ball rate from 2019:

Rank

Player

Fly Ball Rate

Games Played

Home Runs

1

Rhys Hoskins

50.4%

160

29

2

Mike Trout

49.2%

134

45

3

Brandon Belt

48.7%

156

17

4

Rougned Odor

47.9%

145

30

5

Max Kepler

46.6%

134

36

6

José Ramírez

46.5%

129

23

7

Renato Núñez

46.3%

151

31

8

Alex Bregman

45.9%

156

41

9

Anthony Rendon

45.7%

146

34

10

Mike Moustakas

45.3%

143

35

11

Daniel Vogelbach

44.8%

144

30

12

Nolan Arenado

44.7%

155

41

13

Matt Olson

44.6%

127

36

14

Eduardo Escobar

44.6%

158

35

15

Jorge Polanco

44.4%

153

22

16

Paul DeJong

44.3%

159

30

17

Hunter Dozier

43.9%

139

26

18

Mookie Betts

43.8%

150

29

19

Kris Bryant

43.2%

147

31

20

Matt Chapman

43.1%

156

36

As you can see, there’s a lot of pop in this table. Brandon Belt is a bit of an outlier, but we’ve come to expect that from him a little bit. He’s touted a fly ball rate of at least 46% in his last four seasons and he’s never topped 20 home runs. He’s truly a victim of his home ballpark as he has just 27 home runs in his last four seasons at Oracle Park. But even 14 of the top 20 hitters in terms of fly ball rate cranked 30 home runs last season with two other players (Rhys Hoskins and Mookie Betts ) hitting 29. But the fact remains the same, fly balls lead to more power. The downside is that if the ball isn’t leaving the park, fly balls will also lead to more outs than ground balls.

There are a couple players in this list worth keeping an eye on. To start, Mike Moustakas should be on everyone’s radar. In 143 games with Milwaukee last season, he hit 35 home runs with a 45.3% fly ball rate. Over his last three years playing in Kansas City and Milwaukee he has 101 home runs with a fly ball rate of at least 45.3% in each season. In 2020, he joins the Cincinnati Reds with a very favorable ballpark toward hitters. It’s a small park and in the summer, it produces amazing results for hitters. He could be looking to set a career high in home runs in 2020. Anthony Rendon had himself a fantastic year in his last season with Washington and he now joins the Angels with a slight park downgrade in Orange County. If you look into Greg Jewett’s Player Profile on Anthony Rendon you’ll see that slight regression is in line mostly due to the park transition. He’s kept up similar batted ball profiles the last three seasons with an improved hard-hit rate (more on that sabermetric in another column), but if you look at just the line drive and fly ball rates, he is in line for another 25-30 home run season. And finally, rumors have been swirling around regarding Nolan Arenado . Anyone who owns him in a dynasty format would be pretty nervous if Arenado was dealt from the Rockies. However, while his power numbers may regress on a new team and in a new ballpark, he’s still an elite player that can produce anywhere.

Similarly, players with an elevated line drive rate tend to produce more for fantasy as well. You won’t see anyone boast a 40.0% line drive rate, or even a 30% line drive rate. Typically, a line drive rate in the range of 19-21% is considered average, but if you can find a player with a 23-26% LD rate then you’re in the money. Whit Merrifield won’t blow you away with his power. But 16 home runs from a leadoff hitter is still pretty good. Merrifield’s 28.5% line drive rate led the league last season and it helped increase his BABIP to .350, which was good for ninth-best in the league. Players can still lend themselves to your fantasy team without an elite fly ball rate if they’re putting the ball in play. Along with Merrifield, Freddie Freeman , Domingo Santana , Dansby Swanson , and Luke Voit tout lighter fly ball rates, but better line drive rates. This type of production may not see as much power as those in the table above, but these players tend to help batting average and runs scored.

Traditionally, it’s never good to be known as a “ground ball hitter.” That just means you’re putting it in the dirt all too often. But you can still be a productive hitter. Last year’s leader in GB% was Wilson Ramos of the New York Mets with a whopping 62.4% rate. Surprisingly he finished the year with 14 home runs and 73 RBI with a .288 batting average, but just a .310 BABIP. Fortunately for Ramos he was saved by a medium + hard contact rate of 81.8%. Eric Hosmer is another player who at least hit 22 home runs despite a ground ball rate of 56.0%. The juiced ball can salvage even the ground ball hitters’ seasons. In general, a higher ground ball rate is never a stat of endearment. Not all your players will be stud power hitters though. For late-round offensive players, you likely won’t find many players with stolen base upside so you’ll want to find players with some power potential that may finished with 12-18 home runs by looking at their batted ball profiles the last few seasons and examine how they’re trending. Remember, players with higher ground ball rates that still produce are the exceptions, not the rule.

For hitters, you typically get a decent sample size of a player’s fly ball rate after about 40-50 games. From there you can examine whether their power numbers seem legitimate. Of course, you’ll want to examine these with their hard-hit rates and launch angles (again, more on these in a later Draft Guide article). Heading into the season, for draft purposes, you can examine a player’s batted ball tendencies and come to your own conclusion if they can sustain the increased power they saw in 2019. For the most part, batted ball data from the past is mostly used to justify a player’s production in counting stats like home runs and RBI.

Since we’re in the midst of the fly ball revolution you’ll find that every pitcher is seeing an uptick in fly balls and home runs allowed. Oddly enough, the pitcher most outspoken about MLB’s juiced balls, Justin Verlander , has led the league in fly ball rate each of the last two seasons. Despite his advanced age and the higher fly ball rate, Verlander is still an elite pitching option. He’s averaged over 12 strikeouts per nine innings in each of his last two seasons with a sub-2.60 ERA. I’ve never been a huge fan of examining fly ball, line drive, and/or ground ball rates for the effectiveness of a pitcher. I typically subscribe to the theory that hard-hit data, BABIP, and ironically enough home run-to-fly ball ratios are better examinations of a pitcher’s performance so we will touch on batted ball a bit for pitchers so HR/FB rates incorporate a huge aspect of this article. If fly balls and line drivers are the goals for hitters, then they’re nightmares for pitchers. But the park factor should play a role as well.

Madison Bumgarner had the fifth-highest Fly Ball rate at 41.6% last season primarily pitching in Oracle Park. However, because of the ballpark upgrade he had just the 44th-worst home run-to-fly ball ratio (12.6%). Bumgarner now moves from Oracle Park to Chase Field and while Chase isn’t the hitter’s park it once was, it’s still a bit of a ballpark downgrade for Madbum so he may be prone to a little regression in 2020. You’ll see a few elite pitchers with higher fly ball rates than you’d like. The previously mentioned Justin Verlander and Madison Bumgarner come to mind as does Gerrit Cole , Anthony DeSclafani , Max Scherzer , Jack Flaherty , Zack Wheeler , and Walker Buehler just to name a few. Pitchers that throw harder are prone to giving up more hard contact and fly balls. A pitcher’s fly ball rate can be worth tolerating if they still generate swinging strikes, strikeouts, a low WHIP, and aren’t getting burned too badly by the long ball. So you don't necessarily need to disregard a pitcher with a higher fly ball rate if they help in other categories. Based on the table above we can deduce that the league is setting up a majority of pitchers for more fly balls.

Similar to hitters, you’ll start to get a feel for a pitcher’s fly ball, line drive, and ground ball rates about a quarter of the way through the season. The first few starts aren’t a real indicator of where a pitcher is at. Some may have some early season struggles and could genuinely be waiting for the weather to warm up to find their groove. Weird things like that happen in the game. So, after seven or eight starts you’ll have a good feel for a pitcher’s batted ball data and whether it’s legitimate or not. Again, try to dissect the information. Why might your second starting pitcher have an elevated fly ball rate? Is the velocity down on their fastball? Are they using certain pitches in their repertoire more and are those pitches making a positive or negative impact? Are they giving up a lot of hard contact? Batted ball data typically all coincides together, and it allows us to dissect a pitcher’s performance a little more in depth. Keep an eye out for further articles in the 2020 MLB Draft Guide as we will be breaking down batted ball data in due time.