I’m going to start this piece off with a quote from Brad Pitt… Yeah. You read that right. Brad Pitt once said “The problem we’re trying to solve is there are rich teams, and there are poor team… And then there’s 50 feet of crap. And then there’s us.” Welcome to Tiering 101 with Professor Pitt! Now Brad was portraying Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane in Moneyball as you can see here. But the important thing to note is that Pitt/Beane assesses his team’s standing in a series of tiers: rich teams, poor teams, crap, and then Oakland. It’s not pretty, but… It’s a start?
With tiers you are grouping comparable players together. Consider your favorite local baseball team. Hopefully they have an ace, then a solid second starting pitcher to rely on, then a third, and you hope to round your rotation out with some competent arms as your fourth and fifth guys in the rotation. Maybe they mix in a southpaw here and there. The term “ace” is a tier in itself. Every baseball team hopes to have one of these guys. Aces include Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, and the rest is debatable. But the debate is where tiers matter!
Rankings Shmankings!
Do you want to know why rankings are a moot point? Because if/when you enter the draft lobby and you have a first round pick that’s toward the back end of the draft, what do you do? Obviously you’re looking to take the best player available. But lets pump the brakes for a second. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, etc. All those guys might be gone. So what’s your play? You need to be aware of who is available and position scarcity. To be completely honest if I’m drafting in the mid-to-late rounds I’m aiming for Jose Altuve. Why? Because he’s in a tier all his own. Take a look at the Fantasy Alarm Player Rankings and sort them by position. If you sort them by second basemen you’ll see that Jose Altuve is clearly in his own tier. The nice thing about our “tier” rankings is that they’re color-coded. So hopefully you aren’t colorblind!
The second base tier is quite possibly the outlier with the argument because of the fact Altuve is on a tier… NAY! A PLANET all his own. But the argument remains the same. Don’t focus solely on how players compare to each other. Group the players based on their output. You can group power hitters together by who you think is capable of hitting 30 or 40+ home runs. There’s a great chance you’ll be able to get a large group of guys together. The same can be said for guys capable of 20+ steals. You can group players together however you see fit. But don’t take it as a curse if you don’t get to draft Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. Take it as a blessing!
Don’t get off knocked off your game if you miss out on a top-ranked player at his position. Currently, our very own rankings have Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge in two separate tiers, but to be honest there is very little distance between the two! Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, and Corey Seager are all in the top tier for shortstops but you can make the argument either one of them is capable of finishing at the top of their position. If you miss out on the preseason “number one guy” don’t let it bother you. Draft according to tiers and build your team comfortably that way.
Let the Tiers Fall To You
The fascinating thing about the second base position is that it’s similar to the tight end position in fantasy football. For years you would either draft Gronk or wait and draft a tight end later on. Oddly enough Gronk and Altuve are separated by a mere 12 inches in height but both are equally as valuable at their positions. Altuve has two consecutive seasons with 24 home runs and 80+ RBI. What makes Altuve so special is that he’s a lock for a .300+ batting average to go with 30+ stolen bases. Remember when you were “tiering” those guys before based on stats? Altuve hits a bunch of those boxes to check off. But if you miss out on Altuve, similar to missing out on Gronk, you can grab a viable second basemen or player eligible at multiple positions later in the draft that can possibly slide into your second basemen slot.
But it’s important to know which positions have depth and which don’t. Second base is the rare position where there is one player in a league all his own. On the opposite end of the spectrum pitchers have an abundance of depth. This is one of the reasons I argued to wait on starting pitchers in a previous When to Draft Starting Pitching article for the fantasy baseball draft guide. In looking at the pitchers rankings, the third tier extends all the way to the 29th starting pitcher. The fourth tier extends all the way to the 48th ranked starting pitcher. That’s just the depth at the position and obviously you’ll have more starting pitchers than first or third basemen on your roster.
But you also need to have awareness for how the tiers are shaping up and where the value can be had. If you miss a guy at the top of the third tier at third base like Kyle Seager or Jake Lamb just look to get Rafael Devers or Evan Longoria a round or two later. Don’t focus so much on drafting specifically ranked players.
Build Your Own Tiers Over The Offseason
You don’t have to like Fantasy Alarm’s rankings. Every website provides rankings. And honestly arguing over “top 20 outfielders” and “top 40 starting pitchers” is all semantics. It’s perfectly fine to formulate your own opinion. It’s the same mindset with formulating any fantasy sports draft method: you don’t need to know everyone’s stat line, but it’s important to have a quick opinion on every player. It doesn’t necessarily need to be whether your like the guy or not, but you could simply just know where he falls in your tier rankings.
Don’t forget that tiers can apply to overall rankings as well. Ultimately it’s smart to rank tiers by position. But it’s okay to make a broader tier ranking the positional players or all players in general. Obviously the top tier catchers won’t crack the top two tiers of positional players, but there is still first round talent available well after the first round.
Will Eric Hosmer remain in the second tier by returning to Kansas City or will it hurt his value if he goes to San Diego? Could J.D. Martinez jump from the second tier to the first by signing with Boston? It’s possible! There are still a lot of moves to be made that could drastically impact rankings. Make sure you keep up with our own rankings as well as The Offseason Free Agent Tracker is updated daily. And please, if you’re a savvy fantasy baseball player get involved with the Mock Draft Army. Our very own Howard Bender does a great job organizing multiple drafts each week to prep you for your real draft. And this is a great exercise to know when sleepers are going off the board, how ADP is changing as spring training progresses, and when and where your tiered players are going off the board. Spring Training is around the corner so sign up by e-mailing mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com and say you want to get in on some real mock drafts.