NASCAR DFS Playbook: Xfinity Series Championship

The Truck series last night got off to a disastrous start when John Hunter Nemechek got into the wall and then had a flat, which basically forced him to race a lap down for 60% of the race. Surprisingly I turned a slight profit even with JHN in all three of my lineups. So we turn our attention now to the Xfinity finale later today. Xfinity got practice in on Friday so I’ll post those results below. We won’t know the starting order until roughly 6:30pm ET so core plays will be published after that, and the race goes green shortly after 8:30pm ET.

Saturday’s race is set for 200 laps broken into 45-45-110 segments. So if you take out the cautions we’re looking at maybe 130 or so dominator points for tonight’s action. There will be no competition caution since we have practice and qualifying. Here are the results of yesterday’s practice session:

The Championship Drivers

Austin Cindric ($11,000) There are very few concerns regarding Cindric today. No matter where he starts he’s eligible in all DFS formats. He won last year’s championship race at Phoenix while collecting 46 dominator points and he won here in the Spring while collecting 53.25 points. He hasn’t finished worse than eighth here in his last six races so it would truly take a wreck or a complete screw up on the setup for him to struggle on Saturday. Not to mention he was very fast in practice on Friday. What else needs to be said? He wants to end his Xfinity career with another championship and he’s in great position to do so.

Noah Gragson ($10,400) Gragson was great here in 2020. His average finish here in five races is 13.80 but remember he had engine issues here in the Spring and he finished outside the top 30. But last year he finished second in the championship race (although he wasn’t eligible for the title) and he finished seventh in the Spring race in 2020 while leading 27 laps. He’s been on a great run since the playoffs started. He’s won three races including last week at Martinsville and he has two other finishes in the top three during the playoffs.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,200) Dinger is a bit of an anomaly. He grabbed a top five here in the Spring, and he does have plenty of experience here at the Cup level. On shorter tracks this year he’s done okay. He won at Bristol (which is nothing like Phoenix) but he only led the final lap (and wrecked while crossing the finish line). We’ll still get exposure because we know how good he can be on his best days and he looked good in practice as evidenced above. 

Daniel Hemric ($10,000) It’s been an interesting week for Hemric. It’s bad enough people have poked fun at the possibility of him winning a championship without winning a race (myself included). His hauler had some issues getting to the track in time yesterday, but ultimately the car got there about 30 minutes before practice. It was quickly unloaded and he actually ran pretty well in practice recording the third-fastest single lap and the fifth-fastest ten-lap average. He had a solid run in the Spring race until the last restart where he got in the wall and finished outside the top 20. That’s just how things seem to go for Hemric. But he was running top five most of the day and led over 40 laps. Overall this year he’s looked great on these shorter, flat tracks so if he can put the B.S. regarding his hauler behind him, he’ll have a strong day.

Remaining Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800) It was obviously a disappointing end to JHN’s 2021 Truck Series season. He spent most of last night’s race a lap down before clawing his way to a seventh place finish. Nemechek won his last Xfinity race at Texas in this very 54-car. Truth be told, this car has won 11 races in Xfinity this year so we know the equipment is solid. He’s never finished worse than ninth at the Xfinity level at Phoenix and he did that in arguably worse equipment. I expect him to redeem himself for last night’s debacle and possibly win Saturday’s race.

Justin Allgaier ($10,600) I’m never a fan of writing up all the top-tier drivers, but it’s my last NASCAR Playbook of the year so I would like to cover all my bases. Similar to Hemric, Allgaier was running well in the final restart of the Spring race at Phoenix before some contact dropped him to eighth. But in the last nine races here he’s won two of them and he’s collected plenty of top fives along the way. In seven of his last nine races in the desert he’s led at least 30 laps and in six of those races he’s led at least 50 laps. It sucks he’s not running for a championship this weekend, but if he gets a strong finish and some dominator points he could be in the optimal. With so many other elite tier options, we may actually get Allgaier at low ownership.

Brandon Jones ($9,300) These next two drivers are pretty similar. I’d probably only play them in GPP’s and hope for a strong finish. Jones wrecked out of this race in the Spring but he does have a win here and plenty of other top 12 finishes. He has a little momentum as well with five finishes in the top six over his last seven races during the playoffs. There’s nothing flashy about Jones, but there’s upside in GPP’s.

Justin Haley ($9,100) Haley’s brakes ended his chances last week. His 33rd place finish at Martinsville ended his streak of consecutive top ten finishes in the playoffs. He finished 26th here in the Spring, but prior to that he had finishes of 8th, 5th, 7th, and 12th. He looked pretty fast in practice as well so if he can run a clean race you’ll get him at low ownership and he’s good for about 40 or so points on DraftKings. He’s not in contention as a dominator but he could finish in the top five.

Sam Mayer ($8,600) Mayer should probably be priced up about $400-$500 more in my opinion. This is the type of track that suits his style of driving. He typically thrives on short tracks as evidenced by his fourth-place finish at Martinsville last week. He was top 12 in single lap averages and seventh in ten-lap averages. Ownership is never overwhelmingly high so if he qualifies in the teens then I’ll be heavy with exposure this evening.

Sheldon Creed ($8,000) Creed is going to drive the 78-car for BJ McLeod Motorsports but the general belief is that it will be prepared by RCR so the equipment should be pretty solid. His fastest lap was in the top 20 and he was top 15 in ten-lap average yesterday. Plus, similar to JHN he ran the truck series race last night and looked great for what it’s worth. Knowing how the track will feel this evening is a bit of an advantage so Creed is a nice mid-range play on Saturday. Creed led over 100 laps in last night’s race and while he may not be a dominator on Sunday, it likely won’t take much for him to return value.

Riley Herbst ($7,800) One thing that stood out to me from Friday’s practice is that a lot of drivers saw about a 1.5-2.0 mph drop from their fastest single lap to their ten-lap average. However, Herbst’s fastest lap was 127.873mph (not great), but his ten-lap average was 127.155 so he didn’t see as much of a drop off as the field. I may be reading into it a little too much because maybe he wasn’t pushing the car all that hard, but this is still a very budget friendly price for Herbst. In his last three races here he’s finished 4th, 11th, and 10th and the top five finish was in this vey car. He’s always a risk to wreck but he is coming off a top ten at Martinsville last week.

Sage Karam ($7,200) One of these days, Karam will finish right about where he runs. He has looked good at times, but he has been inconsistent finishing well. But we’ve also only seen him in a small sample size. I only really like him if he’s offering PD. If he starts inside the top 20 then I’m probably off him for the day as there are drivers in this range I trust more. I do like the prospect of possibly getting him at low ownership in the 31-car.

Ryan Sieg ($7,000) Hopefully you aren’t too confused this weekend because our beloved Ryan Sieg is in the 38-car, while he brother Kyle races in the 39-car. It’s one of those situations where your mom tells you to share your Gameboy Color with your little brother. Hopefully I’m not dating myself too much with that analogy, but car numbers be damned, Sieg looked great in practice yesterday from what I can gather. He was top ten in both single-lap and ten-lap speed. For whatever reason, his last two races at Phoenix have gone poorly. But he has plenty of experience here and practice and qualifying should benefit his team to get the right setup. He’s finished in the top 15 here plenty of times and the price is friendly to roster construction.

Bayley Currey ($5,900) Currey disappointed last week at Martinsville, but we struck gold on him earlier in the year when he stole a top ten finish here. This equipment is better than what he ran earlier in that particular race. He didn’t flash the fastest speed in practice, but if he’s offering up PD after qualifying I’ll give him some exposure because I just can’t help myself.

Jade Buford ($5,800) Keep an eye on Buford today because exposure to him will depend on starting spot. He found his groove last week at Martinsville with a top 20 finish and we know he can pilot this ride to a finish inside the top 18. He looked okay in practice, but not great. He probably finishes off the lead lap but that doesn’t mean he can’t finish in the top 20. But hopefully he can give us some PD as a paydown option in Cash games. Earlier this year he finished 20th after starting P32.

Josh Williams ($5,700) Williams is back in driver pool this weekend. He’s still under $6,000 and we know he has the ability to post 30+ points on DraftKings as evidenced by last week’s run at Martinsville. Williams was top 20 in single-lap speed and top 15 in ten-lap average. If he gets a top 15 with some PD he’s a nice value play for your lineups, but I do hope he qualifies just outside the top 20. That would make me feel just a little bit better. In his last four races at Phoenix with DGM Racing he’s finished 21st, 13th, 16th, and 15th. The two best finishes of the four were playoff races. His teammate Alex Labbe ($6,700) is also in play, but I think I prefer Williams slightly due to the discount and more reliable results here.

Joe Graf Jr. ($4,900) Joe Graf Jr. and JJ Yeley switched cars this weekend and I don’t quite know why. But Graf will be in the 17-car and Yeley is in the 07-car which he did some damage to yesterday during practice and will be going to the backup car. This 17-car is pretty solid. It has plenty of top 20 finishes this year and Yeley drove it to a 12th place finish at Phoenix in the Spring. The price tag is great if you’re paying for the equipment. The question is, can Graf drive it to a top 20? 

Core Drivers

Quick Notes on Qualifying:

• I don’t believe Harrison Burton’s car is at risk. He was going to start at the rear anyway due to a tech issue. He ran a slow lap to not waste the tires.
• A.J. Allmendinger is a good PD play but he’s starting last of the championship four so ownership should be high.
• Creed’s car is clearly prepped by RCR and it showed great speed in qualifying.
• I’m downgrading Buford and Williams to just GPP plays given that they qualified well.
• Kyle Sieg is worth considering in GPP’s.
• Brandon Jones, Justin Allgaier, and John Hunter Nemechek are non-playoff drivers that looked very fast during qualifying