NASCAR DFS Playbook: Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200

Last week of NASCAR for the next few weeks while the Olympics dominate the NBC coverage. It’s a welcome break as I’m looking forward to some time off, but I know the Monday following the Cup series race I’ll be itching for another race. But we’re in New Hampshire this weekend and as mentioned on this week’s podcast, this is a one-mile flat track. So looking at track history is useful, but honestly I’m just going to look at the guys who have been fast and reliable this season.

We don’t have Kyle Busch this week, but we do get Christopher Bell in the 54-car that has been fantastic this year. In 18 races this year, the driver of the 54-car has won seven times and finished top five in 13 of the 18 races. Now it is worth mentioning, Kyle Busch won all five of his Xfinity races this year so that’ll surely inflate the stats a bit. But this is great equipment with a Cup series driver. Not to mention, Bell has traditionally run very well here, but we’ll touch on him shortly.

Weather will play a role this weekend unfortunately. I swear if NASCAR is coming to town that’ll signal the awful weather. This race is scheduled to go green at 3:18pm ET and there’s a chance showers roll in during the third stage. For now, I’m operating as if we’re getting 200 laps. And those 200 laps will be broken into stages of 45-45-110 with a competition caution following lap 20. So, we have 130-140 dominator points on the table this weekend so don’t hesitate to structure your builds with two dominators, but I’ll even be targeting solo dominator builds for some of my lineups in the event someone runs away with this race. Here’s the starting order for Saturday afternoon.

Driver Pool

Christopher Bell ($11,500; Starting P14) Given what we’ve seen DraftKings do when Kyle Busch is in this car, this is a very friendly price tag for Christopher Bell who will easily be in a top three car on Saturday. He’ll hit value if he gets a top five finish with some fastest laps along the way so it would be a bit crazy to completely fade him. As mentioned above he dominated at New Hampshire when he ran the Xfinity series full-time. In two races, he won both and led a total of 279 laps while consistently running up front. 

Austin Cindric ($10,700; Starting P4) I’m skipping over Allgaier for the sake of not writing up every top-priced driver. Am I going to mix Allgaier in? Yes, probably two or three of my 20 builds. But I think DFS players may look at the track history here for Cindric and not commit a ton of ownership. I like Cindric because he’s run very well on similar short flat tracks such as Phoenix where he dominated the last two races. The Xfinity series didn’t run at Loudon a year ago, so I like Cindric’s odds and he’s obviously getting good vibes after it was announced he would be stepping into the 2-car next year for Team Penske.

Josh Berry ($10,400; Starting P21) Berry’s going to be popular this week given the price tag and starting spot. Additionally, he’s subbing in for Michael Annett, whose leg is still bothering him and he’s unable to drive. He basically needs to finish in the top seven to hit value, which he certainly can do. He dominated a shorter flat track earlier this year in Martinsville and is worthy of the attention given his talent and equipment. If I’m being honest, I’m more comfortable with him in Cash games this week. I’ll mix him into some GPP builds, but I’ll likely be under the field.

Brandon Jones ($10,100; Starting P23) Now take what I just said about Berry and flip it. I’ll take more exposure to Jones in GPP’s and obviously zero exposure to Jones in Cash games. I simply do not trust him enough for Cash contests. Jones has somehow wrecked in five of the 18 races this year, one of those being Phoenix, but he does have seven finishes in the top five and ten finishes in the top ten. You’re getting extra PD and a more flexible salary with Jones. In his last two races here, he has back-to-back top tens.

Daniel Hemric ($9,800; Starting P13) I absolutely love Hemric this week and will be much heavier on him than the field. He obviously has the stigma of being a lovable loser especially after Kyle Busch screwed him out of his first career win last week. But Hemric has been very fast and there will be plenty of DFS players trying to cram two of the drivers mentioned above in their builds. He has experience here and the resume is nothing to write home about, but this is the best equipment he’s ever been in. He also seemingly finds his way to the front every race. He’s led double-digit laps in eight of the 18 races this season, but the finishes just haven’t been there for him. In my single-entry contests, he’ll be a guy I go to because we will likely have him at low ownership. I won’t predict a victory but I am hopeful he shows up with a fast car once again. A top five will get him close to 5X value.

JJ Yeley ($8,400; Starting P36) Yeley is back in the 17-car, which has performed like a top 15-20 car this season and he drove this to a top 12 back in Phoenix. He really only needs to finish 18th or 19th to hit value so he’s easily in play in both Cash and GPP contests. This is the most expensive he’s been all season but given that we know he can drive this car to a top 15, even $8.4K seems a slight bargain.

Brandon Brown ($7,500; Starting P22) After getting off to a hot start earlier this season, Brown has cooled off a bit, but he hasn’t been a complete disaster. What I really like is that he’s at a track comparable to Phoenix and he finished third there earlier this season and 12th at Phoenix last Fall in the Xfinity series championship race. He just needs to crack the top 15 to possibly be optimal and in his first race here two years ago he started 21st and finished 16th. Let’s hope for just a few more spots of PD on Saturday.

Brandon Gdovic ($7,300; Starting P32) It was over a month ago when DraftKings hilariously priced him at $8,800 and while he was an awful play at that price tag, this is a more reasonable price for Gdovic. His average finish this season is inflated because he grabbed a top ten at Daytona, but he finished 17th at Martinsville (another flat track but with tighter turns), 36th at Darlington, and 23rd at Texas. The 26-car has helped him out, and while I don’t think he grabs a top 20, there’s GPP appeal here. 

Ryan Sieg ($7,000; Starting P12) The downside with Sieg this week is that he’s starting a little too high, but hey, that’ll drive down ownership. He comes with variance but he’s been serviceable the last few weeks. He’s like a slightly more expensive Tommy Joe Martins. And truth be told, he has a solid resume at New Hampshire. In six races here he has five top 20’s including three top 15’s which have come in his last four races here. His only bad performance here was due to an issue with his brakes. The value options are tough to love this week, but Sieg is one I feel pretty good about despite the starting spot. If he can somehow finish in the top ten we’re getting 5X value, but remember, he’s not a slam dunk.

Patrick Emerling ($6,700; Starting P24) Emerling is a modified driver who has raced at Loudon plenty of times in the Whelen Modified Tour where he’s logged a handful of top five finishes here. He’s in the 23-car for Our Motorsports this year and that car has far exceeded expectations this season. I don’t think I trust him for Cash games, but he does make for a nice value play in GPP contests.

DGM Teammates (Alex Labbe and Josh Williams) – I’m struggling to identify a healthy batch of value plays for Saturday’s action. No one really stands out aside from the drivers listed below, but I will take a shot on these two in GPP’s. They’re priced relatively close (Williams: $6,100 starting P20, Labbe: $6,000 starting P15) and they’ve done okay at Loudon. Two years ago Williams got a top 20 after starting P27 and while Labbe doesn’t have a top 20 here, he does have momentum coming in and I can’t imagine he’ll have a lot of ownership starting P15. Again, I don’t love many cheap punts this week so I’d rather look at these two and hope they don’t fall off the lead lap early on.

Tommy Joe Martins ($5,600; Starting P17) he might be starting a little too high, sure, but Tommy Joe is in play for the same reason he’s always in play. In this price range he probably has the most upside of any driver. He isn’t offering a ton of PD but he’s rolling in with four straight top 20 finishes and while he’s finished 20th, 25th, and 29th in three races here, that was in BJ McLeod Motorsports equipment. He looked solid at Phoenix earlier this year so as long as he runs clean, he is useful in GPP’s.

Dexter Bean ($5,400; Starting P37) From the sounds of it, I’m not the only one liking Bean as a value play this week. He’s in the 90-car for DGM and the last time I used a driver in this car as a value play, Loris Hezemans came close to 6X value at Pocono. I’m just hoping Bean finishes in the top 30, and a 26th place finish will return 5X value. But he can’t really kill you with negative PD and the equipment is decent. In four races this year at a variety of tracks he’s finished 17th, 25th, 29th, and 35th. 

I may add another driver or two to the pool and update core plays in the morning. As you know I’ll alert you of any changes in the NASCAR DFS Discord as well. Best of luck ton Saturday!

Core Drivers