NASCAR DFS Playbook: Credit Karma Money 250

This isn’t the easiest slate we’ve ever had to read as it’s another Kyle Busch race. But hopefully this is the last we see of him since he has no other Xfinity commitments in 2021. Either way, by now we know what Atlanta is. It’s a 1.5-mile intermediate track and it’s heaviest on tire wear. I personally love DFS for Atlanta because tire strategy is key and managing those rubber circles will lead to success. I think it’s fine to look at previous Atlanta races, but be sure to take an extra look at the June 2020 Atlanta race. I’m looking for diamonds in the rough from that race since track conditions will be similar to what we see on Saturday. I’ll link the data from that race here.

Saturday’s race will have 163 laps so we’re looking at 114 dominator points potentially. We’ll have a competition caution at lap 20, which benefits some early PD targets. The stages will be broken into 40-40-83 segments and it’s going to be hot at the track. It’s going to be in the mid-80’s with heavy humidity. I will be at the race and you can safely assume that I’ll feel like death all afternoon.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($14,000; Starting P1) This goes without saying. This will be his last Xfinity race of 2021. He has no further commitments in 2021 and he has 101 career wins at this level. So treat this like his swan song because this is OFFICIALLY his last Xfinity race of 2021. He has won all four Xfinity races he’s run in 2021 so why should we treat Atlanta any differently? He’s the best driver in the best equipment. He will need 25 dominator points and a win to hit value, but he led 90+ laps in both non-road course races at the Xfinity level so KB54 is once again in play to make everyone else feel insignificant.

Justin Allgaier ($10,600; Starting P8) Assuming anyone that makes a “Fade KFB” lineup will go to Cindric, I might prefer Allgaier for Saturday. He won this race back in the Spring and he has finished in the top six in his last four races at Atlanta. Plus, you want to target drivers and teams that understand the importance of tire management at this track. I’ll have Cindric in some builds, but Allgaier is my preferred pivot off Busch.

Expensive PD: I’m gonna get cute and lump in three drivers in this paragraph: Josh Berry, Ty Dillon, and Sam Mayer. All three are expensive, but they offer PD. If I was to rank them I’d go Dillon, Berry, Mayer (but don’t get testy when you see Berry not in my core plays). Dillon is in the 23-car for Our Motorsports today and he offers the most PD. He will be the most heavily-owned driver of this trio but after some bad luck in the JGR 54-car, Dillon’s seen some success with Our Motorsports. Berry’s proven himself this year and even after his time with JRM expired he’s found more life in the 31-car. And lastly, we’re waiting on Sam Mayer to get it together but after two underwhelming performances at Pocono and Road America, we might see low ownership. I would just love it if he were a little cheaper though.

Brandon Jones ($8,800; Starting P13) It was tough to decide between Jones or Noah Gragson for this price range. I’m picking Jones for the extra PD and he’s cheaper. Jones only needs to move up about six or seven spots to hit value. Prior to last week’s race at RA he rolled off five straight top ten finishes and he won’t get a ton of dominator points, but he could land a few fastest laps to help him hit value. This isn’t a sexy play but if we’re assuming casual players try to cram Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs, Jones will be overlooked.

Daniel Hemric ($8,600; Starting P2) I don’t know what the deal is, but DK price him down a bit. It’s probably because he doesn’t offer PD and he’s starting next to a guy who could win this race going wire-to-wire. But Hemric’s car has been great and after the first stage we could see him get to the front and get some dominator points and still finish really well. Does he have bad luck? Yes. But his performances on intermediate tracks has been solid this year and how awesome would it be if he got his first career win on a day where I was present?

Santino Ferrucci ($8,000; Starting P25) Ferrucci’s a nice PD play on Saturday and he also has four straight top 15’s when he has run Xfinity. He started P12 back in the Spring and finished 15th, but at this price tag and starting spot I like him for another top 15 on Saturday, and possibly a top ten finish.

Jeb Burton ($7,300; Starting P11) I know he finished outside the top 20 in the previous Atlanta race, but this price tag is just too cheap for a solid driver in great equipment. He basically just needs a top ten finish to hit value and we know this car can finish top five if everything falls in his favor. Intermediate tracks haven’t been his forte this year so we don’t need a ton of exposure, but if he just moves up TWO spots he’s hitting value. Similarly, I do like Brett Moffitt in this price range as well. He offers much more PD than Burton, and we know Moffitt has the ability to push his car to a top 12 finish. But he’s seen his fair share of problem at 1.5-mile tracks this year with Texas being his only top 20 finish.

Ryan Sieg ($7,100; Starting P16) Not that it necessarily needs to be said, but Sieg and his team cannot gamble on old tires at this track. He will surely end his day early if he goes that route. That being said, he did get a top ten here back in the Spring. Now the track conditions were different and on Saturday the track will likely be more slick. But this is an affordable price tag for a guy that will return value with a top 12 finish. However, here’s your typical disclaimer that Sieg is only a GPP play because it’s possible he has some mechanical issue or wrecks.

Jeremy Clements ($7,000; Starting P19) Clements has been pretty good on 1.5-mile tracks this year. His worse finish was at Vegas (17th) but otherwise he’s finished top 14 at Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas. If he finishes about 13th or 14th then he’ll hit 5X value. If he finishes tenth then we’re looking at 6X value. I could see ownership being moderately high since it’s Clements offering PD and he feels underpriced today. Under similar conditions from last year’s race he started 20th and finished 13th. Let’s hope for a similar performance today.

Josh Williams ($5,700; Starting P18) Williams is a fine GPP play this weekend. I like him, don’t love him though. He isn’t offering as much PD as we might prefer, but he’ll have good track position to start and the DGM equipment he’s in is always worth taking a shot on as a sub-$6K driver. He finished 16th here in the Spring, but be warned he’s finished outside the top 20 in his other three races at Atlanta. If you do want someone in this range that offers PD, then you can consider Ryan Vargas.

Jade Buford ($5,400; Starting P27) I get why DK priced him down this week. He has two DNF’s in his last three races, but at the same time I still wonder why they went this cheap. In five of his last seven races entering Atlanta, he has top 20 finishes, with the other two results being DNF’s. The other problem we’ll run into with Buford is that he will be heavily-owned for people going to Kyle Busch. So for that reason I may go under the field in terms of exposure. He’s an easy driver to consider because we know what he can do, but diversifying your KB54 lineups will be crucial and Buford will be in a ton of lineups.

David Starr ($5,100; Starting P35) Honestly, from a DFS perspective, David Starr hasn’t been terrible at times in 2021. He started P31 at Texas and finished 20th. Earlier this year at Atlanta he started P38 and finished 27th. The upside for a top 20 is minimal but he’s starting 35th and just needs to finish 26th or better to hit value. This isn’t an awful driver to consider in this range.

Jesse Little ($4,800; Starting P31) I truly hate the equipment and he hasn’t been very good in it. However, there is top 20 upside here for Little. And he’s honestly so cheap that he really only needs to finish top 25 to hit value. In the Spring race earlier this year he finished 22nd in this same car. In a different ride in last summer’s Atlanta race he finished 20th. Two races is a bit of a small sample size, but if we’re looking for non-Buford options in this range, Little is worth a gamble for some cheap PD points.

Carson Ware ($4,700; Starting P26) Ware is stepping into the 17-car for SS Green Light Racing. I do wish he was starting just a little further back, but I believe there is upside in this equipment. Cody Ware picked up five spots of PD in this car back in the Spring and finished 23rd but Carson is so cheap that if he moves up four or five spots he’ll hit value. He doesn’t even need a top 20, we just need a little PD and a clean race.

Core Drivers