I don’t mean to be brief with the introduction, but I’m beginning the writing of this article around 2:00am ET on Friday. We finally have a non-Kyle Busch race and I believe he may only pop up on one or two more Truck race slates going forward. So we can at least celebrate that for this evening’s race.

Friday’s race will feature 147 laps so we have about 100 dominator points to work with tonight and we don’t have a ton of history to look at regarding the trucks here because they raced here last season, but aside from that Darlington isn’t really a track the truck series runs. So experience does play a role here. Additionally, as Matt and I discussed on the podcast, there aren’t many tracks like Darlington. The shape, distance, banking, and surface make it incredibly unique and it’s easy to get into the wall. But we can pull a little data from Dover and Miami-Homestead, and if you’re feeling saucy look at Vegas since Matt noted on the pod the banking is similar between both tracks. And of course, you can re-watch last season’s Darlington truck series race here.

I’ll be in the chat most of the afternoon, but I believe I’ll likely be driving home for the last hour leading up to lock and I’ll probably be sitting in traffic for the Atlanta Braves games as well. But I’ll keep tabs on the news throughout the date and make updates and changes to the playbook.

Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000; Starting P1) It honestly feels like $11,000 could be a little too cheap for JHN. He’s one of the favorites to win and he has the luxury of starting out front with the clean air. With so little data to pull regarding the truck series at Darlington it might be wise just to stick with the drivers that have looked the best this year. With a pair of wins and plenty of top fives on the year, JHN seems like the safest bet tonight. He doesn’t have experience in the trucks here, but he at least has Cup and Xfinity experience so he’s familiar at least.

Grant Enfinger ($10,700; Starting P17) Enfinger’s ownership will be high, but not nearly as high as the next driver. With nearly half the PD upside as Kligerman, some may opt to go with Kligerman over Enfinger so Enfinger does give a little leverage. He’s back in his usual 98-truck for ThorSport Racing and he drove this truck to a top five at Darlington last year. He’s probably more of a GPP play on Friday night as Kligerman makes more sense in cash games. Enfinger basically needs another top four finish to hit value this evening.

Parker Kligerman ($10,400; Starting P36) I really wanted to fade Kligerman here and there’s a part of me that still wants to. At this price point it’s simply too easy for Kligerman to hit value. He’s capable of finishing in the top ten with this ride and he only really needs to finish 13th for value. He and JHN (and another value play that we’ll get to) will be the chalk of the slate and his PD makes him an easy play for cash contests. Last season we saw him start outside the top 30 and move into the top 15 with ease. Friday night might be just another one of those performances.

Sheldon Creed ($10,100; Starting P15) I hate covering the four most expensive drivers because that seems far too easy to do in my opinion, but Creed is one of the best drivers in the field and he’s offering us PD this week. He needs close to a top five finish with zero dominator points to hit value. I imagine he’ll spend most of the first stage moving up through the field and he likely doesn’t get any dominator points (if any) until the second and third stages. Hard to believe he only has one top ten in his last five races, but we know he’s better than that. He led 27 laps despite a poor finish here last season.

Zane Smith ($9,600; Starting P3) Zane’s a high-upside GPP play today. He’ll be starting right behind JHN which could bode well for his prospects early on. I think he can easily get around Austin Hill, the question is whether he can pass JHN. He consistently ran inside the top ten for most of the Darlington race last year before settling for 16th. He’s shown speed in this 21-truck for GMS Racing. Ownership could be a bit soft on him because the overall finishes haven’t been there for him. I’d limit exposure to just GPP’s Friday night.

Derek Kraus ($9,000; Starting P20) If you remember last year’s Darlington race, Derek Kraus was actually leading at the final restart where they went to overtime for a green-white checker. He insanely handed the top line to Ben Rhodes and once rubber is laid down on this track, that upper groove runs incredibly fast and by allowing Rhodes to take that line he basically handed Rhodes the win. This time around he offers more PD and he’ll likely come with some ownership assuming the field doesn’t want to go too heavy on Enfinger (makes sense). Kraus basically just needs a top ten to hit value. If we’re looking at comparable data from a year ago he finished second at Darlington, tenth at Dover, and 15th at Homestead. This is a good mid-range play on the slate.

Bayley Currey ($8,600; Starting P38) The price tag may scare some people away and while this isn’t Niece Motorsports’ preferred track style, this is still a truck that can finish top 15-20. Currey logged a top 12 finish last week at Kansas and Ross Chastain drove this same truck to a runner-up finish behind Kyle Busch. Currey easily hits value with a 19th-place finish. If he can run a clean race there’s easy value to hit here.

Johnny Sauter ($7,800; Starting P6) This is truly a hilarious price tag for Sauter, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise because he was awful without practice and qualifying a year ago. But it looks as if his team has made the necessary adjustments this year and they’ve shown up with decent setups to start this season. He had an engine issue last year at Darlington so that is obviously a blemish on his resume. But in his career here (albeit, in races that were nearly a decade ago) he’s finished ninth and fourth at track too tough to tame. Additionally, Dover and Homestead are two of his better tracks so I’m not opposed to firing up Sauter for some GPP lines on Friday night. He basically does need to hold his position to hit value but if he can log some dominator points then he has some flexibility. This is strictly a GPP play that possibly comes with low ownership. I won’t write him up in depth, but Todd Gilliland is another driver I’ll have similar exposure to in GPP’s. He’s starting right next to Sauter, is $100 cheaper, and has momentum coming into this race and the path to value for him is similar to Sauter’s. Toddfather finished seventh here last season.

Timmy Hill ($7,200; Starting P26) This isn’t really the type of track I want to look at Timmy Hill. But for what it’s worth he grabbed a top ten finish here last season. The price tag is a little high for my liking, but I’m not ruling out a top 20 finish. In the races he has run this year, he’s looked pretty solid so he’s worth throwing into a couple builds and keeping your fingers crossed he maybe sneaks into the top 18. Not a ton of confidence here, but I don’t hate mixing it up with Hill this week.

Corey Heim ($6,900; Starting P13) This is the easiest value play I alluded to earlier. Corey Heim is stepping into Kyle Busch’s 51-truck and he makes for a nice paydown option on Friday night. The lack of experience at Darlington is concerning as it’s pretty tough for rookies to just show up and race here. ARCA has basically been the Ty Gibbs and Corey Heim show this year. Heim’s won at the two superspeedway tracks and Gibbs has won the other two races at Phoenix and Kansas, but Heim was still top three in those races. Part of me does wish Heim was a little cheaper but it’s awfully hard to ignore him when we know what his equipment is capable of. I will advise to be careful with exposure. Don’t consistently build around him as a value play because he will be chalky and this is still a track he doesn’t boast a ton of experience at.

BJ McLeod ($6,500; Starting P39) McLeod is a wheelman, that’s why he’s in the Playbook for tonight’s race. The Reaume Brothers equipment has been garbage but he can pilot this piece of junk to a top 25. Earlier this year at Las Vegas he started P39 and finished 26th. I wish he was just a little bit cheaper, but a top 25 will get us close to 5X value and he can’t kill you with negative PD. Even in this back marker he can provide some value.

Ryan Reed ($6,200; Starting P19) Reed is no spring chicken. He has experience here in the Xfinity series and on top of that he’s in GMS equipment for Friday’s race. He previously raced in CMI equipment, which hasn’t been very good so this is a significant bump in equipment for him. He only needs a top 15 to hit value, but if you pair him with the right dominator drivers and PD plays, you can deal with him just getting you a top 20.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,400; Starting P12) Another week, another AWS shoutout. I was light on him last week but he always makes the most of his ride if he manages to run clean. He got a top 20 here last season and he comes in with some momentum. Is there risk? Of course there is. But he’s cheap enough where you’re just hoping for a top 15 and you hope the momentum rolls on this week. I won’t be incredibly heavy because I’m trying to spread exposure out among some of these value plays this week.

Erik Darnell ($5,000; Starting P22) The rest vs. rust argument. Honestly it’s likely more rust than rest as Darnell hasn’t raced in the truck series in over a decade. The good news? He scored a couple wins way back when. Niece Motorsports noted that they’ve been trying to get him behind the wheel for a while now so they finally got their wish. There are a ton of unknowns here so sprinkle him into some GPP builds. I can’t imagine too many people are playing him, but if you’re dipping this low you’re probably looking at him or Hailie Deegan, and Darnell at least offers more PD upside.

Hailie Deegan ($4,800; Starting P10) I’m trying not to land on a ton of exposure to Hailie Deegan because this is a difficult track for those without experience. But she comes in with the momentum of three straight top 20 finishes and she earned her career-best finish of 13th last week. She can lose about five spots and still hit value, but you’re really just praying for a clean run out of her. GPP play only right here.

Core Drivers

Top Tier

Mid Range

Value Plays

John Hunter Nemechek

Derek Kraus

Corey Heim

Parker Kligerman

Bayley Currey

BJ McLeod

Sheldon Creed

 

Ryan Reed