My deepest apologies for not being on the NASCAR podcast this past week. I was stretched pretty thin this past week with MLB content, NFL Draft coverage, and trying to get some research in for this week’s action in Kansas. I’m thankful Ed stepped in last minute because about an hour before Matt and I typically record our podcasts, I was about ready to pass out. My only regret is not being able to say “Buschy McBusch Race” consistently for 30-45 minutes.

But with that said… It’s a Kyle Busch race on Saturday. Womp Womp Womp… As always he’ll be listed below and it is entirely up to you whether you choose to play him or not. But as is the case with most Kyle Busch truck races, you’ll end up building lineups similar to the field so don’t consistently land on chalk when rounding out your Busch lineups. We’ll discuss more shortly…

This race is set for 134 laps Saturday night with NO competition caution so that is helpful to whoever gets off to an early lead. 134 laps mean we have 93.8 dominator points available (but likely less if you account for caution laps), so we’ll get to the math shortly on what Kyle Busch needs to do to return value. Kansas isn’t typically a track that sees a ton of cautions. However, they raced here THREE times last year and two races saw four cautions for 19 and 24 laps while the wet blanket race of the group saw nine cautions for 38 laps.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($15,000; Starting P2) Look, the narrative is the same as always. It’s a tough price to swallow but he can hit value here. Part of me is a little weary about his path to 5X-6X value. He’s starting on the pole so if he wins we’re looking at 46 points (45 for the win and +1 for the PD). That means he needs 29 dominator points for 5X value and 44 dominator points for 6X value. He is capable of doing that, but the issue is that he’ll be starting next to his employee/apprentice, John Hunter Nemechek. If these two go back and forth with dominator points on Friday it’ll be tough for Busch to return value. But we can throw the notion of hitting value out a little bit in the Truck series. As long as you have the right doms you can cash with crappy dumpster dives. The max number of dominator points available is 93.8 and KFB has a path to returning value here especially considering he hasn’t finished worse than second so far this year at the Truck level. I’m truly struggling with how much ownership I’ll have on Saturday but it’ll probably be around 50-55% per usual.

The PD Chalk at the Top

I’m going to cast a wide net and cover three drivers right here: Ross Chastain ($12,000; Starting P34), Chase Briscoe ($11,500; Starting P30), and Grant Enfinger ($10,500; Starting P29). Enfinger might be my favorite play of the trio. With so many people likely building around KB or targeting the other Cup drivers in tonight’s race then Enfinger’s a guy we can look at. He’s not in his usual 98-truck, but he’s back in the 9-truck for tonight’s race and he piloted this ride to a top ten at Vegas. In his last three races here (all in 2020) he finished fourth, third, and third and he’s never finished outside the top 12 here. A top ten tonight exceeds value and another top five finish would return 6X. The equipment’s a downgrade but he’s a good enough driver to have a good run here Saturday night. Briscoe and Chastain are worth mixing into lineups as well. Briscoe got a top five in this ride at Bristol (despite the race being on dirt) and he’s easily one of the better drivers in the field. The equipment isn’t great and even he expressed some skepticism about how good it actually might be, but this is a scenario where we’re paying up for the driver, not the ride. And finally Ross Chastain is stepping back into the 44-truck tonight. He started 40th in Atlanta and drove this truck to a seventh-place finish so there’s upside for the watermelon man. He’ll be awfully tough to pair with Kyle Busch, but ownership should be decent for any non-Kyle Busch lineup.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,100; Starting P1) Probably my favorite GPP play of the day and if I’m being honest, he’s an okay cash game play as well. He gambled on himself and it’s paid off so far on the young season as the only race he’s finished outside the top ten was Bristol Dirt. JHN has won two of the three races Kyle Busch has appeared in this season and these KBM drivers are on the front row together. We’ve seen Kyle surrender stages to JHN and the latter’s truck has been elite this year with wins at Vegas and Richmond. We’re getting John Hunter on another 1.5-mile track and if everyone’s paying up for KB and the previously discussed drivers then I’m willing to take a shot going heavier than the field on JHN.

Austin Hill ($8,900; Starting P7) It was a rough start to the year for Hill at the two races in Daytona. Since then he’s rattled off four straight top ten finishes and in the three races here last year (with no practice) he finished first, sixth, and third. Across those three races he led 97 laps and 26 fastest laps. This is a driver who has routinely been priced up over $10K in every race this year except BrisDirt. $8,900 is a great bargain and worth looking at in GPP’s. Zane Smith is a similar driver you can look at for $200 more starting right behind Austin Hill. There’s an argument that Smith offers more upside than Hill at this point in the year and ownership on either driver may not be completely high today.

Matt Crafton ($8,700; Starting P12) Crafton could very well fly under the radar today. But this is a great price tag for a guy who finished fourth, first, and eighth here last year. In total, he’s won here three times, finished as the runner-up a couple times as well. He does need to finish top seven to really get value, but he should consistently run top ten today.

Christian Eckes ($8,100; Starting P17) Eckes steps into Enfinger’s ride on Saturday night and he has a pair of top ten’s in two races this year. Last year he finished 13th, second, and sixth in the three races at Kansas and he’s getting into good equipment for this race. DraftKings seems to have whiffed on the price tag and he should be a fairly popular play. A top ten easily returns 5X value. I’m having a tough time gauging his ownership due to the drivers priced above him, but this is one of the best mid-range options on the slate.

Todd Gilliland ($6,900; Starting P6) Maybe it’s the “nice” price tag, maybe it’s the low ownership that’ll come with him, but I’m getting a little exposure to the Toddfather today. If people are looking at drivers in this range they’re looking for value PD plays. And that’s fine, it makes complete sense. If Todd was $500-$1,000 more I wouldn’t consider him. Kansas is an okay track for him. Not his greatest resume, but in the three races last year he finished tenth, 20th, and 13th. And admittedly he’s looked rather pedestrian on 1.5-mile tracks this year so consider this just a gut feeling kind of play. If he can deliver his third straight top ten you’ll take the 30 points if he’s paired with the right dominators.

Bayley Currey ($6,800; Starting P26) With Brett Moffitt opting out of running full-time in the Truck series, Currey will be sliding into the Niece Motorsports ride this week. Perfect timing too because Currey’s a bit of a DFS darling for me. I like to think I have a good read on when he’s a solid play (although you’re welcome to disagree with me) and this is a week we can play around with exposure. A lot of players will flock to the cheaper drivers mentioned below and that’s fine, I likely will too for some lineups. But Currey ran four races last season with Niece Motorsports and finished Top 20 in each. He hasn’t run Kansas at the Truck level in nearly two years, but the lack of practice and qualifying may actually help him as we saw last year.

Raphael Lessard ($6,600; Starting P15) It’s been a forgettable year for Lessard but this is a little too cheap for a GMS ride and he just needs to move up three spots to return value. But again, he has looked awful aside from BrisDirt where he miraculously finished third. In last year’s double-header at Kansas he finished 16th and 11th before wrecking out of the Fall race. Again, you’re just looking for three spots of positive PD to return value and this is a good value play at low ownership.

Tanner Gray ($5,900; Starting P19) Gray is likely going to be a chalky player today. He’s had a solid year DFS-wise but as of right now I think I’m going to be lighter than the field. There are cheaper options that I like and some better PD plays below as well. He finished fourth and 18th in last year’s double-header before wrecking in the Fall race. He’s a good play today and one I’ll mix in to differentiate a few builds, but again I’ll be lighter than the field.

Chase Purdy ($5,600; Starting P23) Purdy is going to be the field’s favorite paydown option on the slate. He’s in the 23-truck for GMS Racing. Yes, you’re getting great equipment at such a moronically cheap price tag. Purdy hasn’t been great for DFS but he’s normally over $6,000 and if he runs a clean race and maybe cracks the top 20 then we’re looking good. If you pair him with the right dominators and other PD plays you can still have a solid lineup even if Purdy doesn’t do much. Call me crazy but I’d be okay if he simply returned 4X value today.

Tate Fogleman ($5,500; Starting P35) Fogleman should be a popular pay down option today. He’s arguably a better play strategically, but Purdy’s in much better equipment. Fogleman normally starts in the top 25 and he usually finished right around there. He did log a pair of top 20 finishes here a year ago and we only need a top 25 from him today. I’ll eat the chalk.

Hailie Deegan ($5,300; Starting P20) The price tag is finally right about where it should be. That’s been the one thing holding me back from playing her more. In her debut at the truck series she managed to finish 16th here last Fall after starting 34th. She’s finding her footing at this level and while she may lose a few spots early on with Enfinger, Briscoe, and Chastain coming up from the rear, but it’s a long enough race where she can gain spots back if she runs clean. I’d definitely go with Purdy and Fogleman over her but ownership will be light on Deegan and I’ll likely throw her in a few builds. If you need to go lower than Deegan we can look at Bret Holmes who offers more PD for $100 less. He was showing solid speed in his first race but the results just haven’t been there. From a DFS perspective he may be the smarter play than Deegan for the PD, but if I’m going this low, I’m willing to consider Deegan for the better position.

Core Drivers

Plenty of ways to go at the top here so I’ll try to narrow down my favorite plays…

Top Tier

Mid Range

Value Plays

Kyle Busch

Matt Crafton

Chase Purdy

Ross Chastain

Christian Eckes

Tate Fogleman

Grant Enfinger

 

 

John Hunter Nemechek