Well I’m going to get this out of the way quickly… I’m not in love with this slate. It’s a Kyle Busch race and it’s a track the Truck Series has run once in the last 15 years and that came last year. So at least we can pull data from that race and the championship race. Comparable tracks are Phoenix and New Hampshire, but this is a short track (0.75 miles) that is more of a rounded tri-oval. It races nothing like Martinsville and Bristol despite also being a short track. Last year’s truck race saw just four cautions for 37 laps and once again, track position will be key. Only SIX drivers finished on the lead lap in last year’s race, with almost half the field finishing more than three laps down.

I am playing this race incredibly light. Currently just playing the Happy Hour, and a few single-entry contests and that’s it. I’m going much heavier on the Cup race because we have more data to draw from and this truck race has Kyle Busch in significantly better equipment than the field. We have 250 laps on tap which means 175 dominator points. Plenty to go around! Tech was held Friday due to a slightly earlier start time (1:37pm ET). Nobody is going to the rear for multiple failures, but pay attention Saturday morning for any unapproved adjustments. Stages will be run in 70-70-110 segments with NO competition caution so that helps whoever gets off to a big lead.

As always I’ll be in the chat from 12:00pm-8:00pm ET tomorrow talking the Truck race and to help with lineup questions on Sunday.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($16,500; Starting P12) This is still just a bit too cheap. BigDay4Me acknowledge in the NASCAR chat the other night that he can easily hit 6X value with a win and there are plenty of dominator points on the table for him. Sure, he needs 99 points on DK but we’ve seen him dominate these races before. As always, I’ll add the caveat that he’s capable of getting an inopportune speeding penalty on pit road that could force him to the rear on a restart late in the race.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500; Starting P18) This could be the slate I decide to go heavier on JHN than Kyle Busch. Don’t quote me on that yet, but as of Thursday afternoon it’s something I’m considering. Busch has run two Truck races this year, winning one (Atlanta) and finishing runner-up at the other (Las Vegas) to JHN. Additionally, what I like about KB’s presence is that he has no incentive to win stages. We saw him help JHN’s track position at Vegas and that led to Nemechek getting a couple extra laps led. I do believe JHN has a legitimate shot at winning Saturday’s race and he has PD on his side. I would probably avoid playing both Busch and JHN together. That’s 56% of your budget on two drivers and you’re left with $5,500 per driver for your remaining four plays. 

Sheldon Creed ($10,500; Starting P9) Creed is a guy I haven’t played a lot of this year. That’s been the right call so far considering he’s raced well, but just hasn’t quite hit the ceiling we saw last year when he was the Truck series championship. I may dabble in a little more Creed and welcome him With Arms Wide Open. My Sacrifice in doing so means I can’t really play him with Busch and pairing him with JHN is still on the table, but cuffs my salary for the rest of the build. I still think this is a solid GPP option as he looked great at Phoenix last Fall. Can he take us Higher up the standings in a GPP? He sure can. I’m hopeful we get him at low ownership and he brings his best performance so far this year, but that’s a big What If.

Sam Mayer ($9,200; Starting P40) I’m going to take a stand and aim to be lighter than the field on Mayer. I’m playing a few single-entry contests and the Happy Hour so if this screws me, so be it. The PD is clearly there and he won at Bristol last year. But that was in GMS equipment. I believe he’ll be running in the 32-truck on Saturday and in two races so far this year, Bret Holmes hasn’t been able to crack the top 30 with that equipment. Mayer’s a great driver with a bright future. But for this slate you need to take some bold stances and I will be lighter than the field on Mayer. Full fade? No. But I might limit exposure to just three or four of my 20 lineups, which is still 15-20%.

Matt Crafton ($8,700; Starting P7) Crafton is a guy that I would probably be heavier on if Kyle Busch wasn’t racing. He probably has the most experience at this track (aside from Busch) and last year he was the runner-up to Grant Enfinger here. He led 25 laps with 27 fastest laps in that race. The price tag is still pretty friendly if he does manage to find his way to the front. He’s had a pretty strong start to the year so I’ll sprinkle him into a couple builds.

Derek Kraus ($8,500; Starting P29) In an ideal world most people will pay up for Sam Mayer and take the more desirable PD for $700 more. But I don’t see it happening as Kraus will still be a mildly popular PD option. The price tag is very nice too. He basically gets you 5X value with a top 15 finish and that comes with some risk. In three of the five races this year he’s finished outside the top 30. In the other two races he finished seventh and 13th. I’ll have a decent amount of exposure on Saturday.

Ben Rhodes ($8,300; Starting P1) So it doesn’t sound like there will be a competition caution for this race. And that aids both Ben Rhodes and Austin Hill. We’ll take the discount and go Rhodes over Hill because it seems like a no brainer. Rhodes has won two races this year and was the runner-up at Bristol Dirt. Rhodes had a solid run in last year’s Richmond race. He finished third and led 66 laps with 39 fastest laps. If he gets out to a lead he has a shot at leading plenty of laps early on. It depends on how long he can hold off Kyle Busch but if he finishes in the top five or ten he can still return value if he collects some of the dominator points that are on the table.

Chandler Smith ($7,900; Starting P23) This feels like it could be a trap and you can bet your Dogecoin I’m willing to fall for this one. He’s been pretty pedestrian this year, but he’s offering PD for the first time in 2021 on a track not covered in dirt. He finished 12th at Richmond last year and third at Phoenix. He just needs to get in the top 15 with a couple fastest laps to return value. Except some decent ownership here.

Johnny Sauter ($7,700; Starting P19) Smith is the safer play, but I haven’t really hated what I’ve seen from Sauter this year. He was horrendous last year without practice. But he’s adjusted to it this year and he logged a top five finish at Atlanta before not having fun at BrisDirt. I like the PD we’re getting here. Even if he just gets a top 12, that’s pretty good and should get value for us. He’s still in really strong ThorSport equipment. If he can keep his cool, I like him this week as a driver who likely won’t have the same ownership as Chandler Smith.

Todd Gilliland ($7,200; Starting P8) I'm adding Toddfather as a late addition. Aside from Daytona he has four top 20 finishes including two in the top five. When he starts in the top ten he typically goes backward, but I've liked what I've seen this year. If you're playing cash I'd try to avoid him, but I can't imagine many people are looking at Gilliland here. If he holds his position he'll return 5X value. Anything more from him would be gravy.

Timmy Hill ($7,000; Starting P34) I’m not going to go crazy with ownership on Hill but I definitely think he deserves a look. He’s starting 34th and he logged a top ten here last year. However, he was starting 15th in that race and ran inside the top 15 for most of it. So while most folks may target him for the PD, the starting spot may end up handicapping him on Saturday. But like I said, to diversify my builds I’m throwing him in some, but he will be a driver I’m light-ish on.

Tanner Gray ($6,900; Starting P11) Gray gets the nod for the playbook as the “nice” play of the week. Sadly it is the price tag that has me a little hesitant if I’m being completely transparent. You can go down to Austin Wayne Self (more on him shortly) and save $1,500. However, Gray is having a really good year given the equipment he’s in. He’s finished top 20 in every race this year, except the opener at Daytona. To return 5X value he actually does need to finish in the top ten, but without a competition caution and with the track position in hand, I still believe he’s viable in GPP’s.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,400; Starting P10) AWS is about as low as I want to go. But playing KB51 and a couple mid-range drivers will force your hand to plug him into a few lineups as well as another cheap dirver. Given the nature of short track racing, AWS has solid track position to start. The lack of a competition caution will help him probably hold position as well as long as he doesn’t wreck. I’d honestly be okay if he somehow managed a top 15-18 finish. Sure that’s negative PD and not 5X value, but there are enough dominator points available on the slate that can compensate for whatever you lose with AWS going backward. He finished 14th here last year and 20th at Phoenix.

Other Drivers To Consider: I don’t think this section has carried as much weight as it does this week. This race is so hard to gauge given how much Kyle Busch is going to cost you, and with that said, he’s still maybe a bit underpriced. So sadly, we may need to dumpster dive with AWS and another cheap option. I’m willing to give Carson Hocevar a look as another paydown option. He’s raced pretty well this year scoring a top five at Daytona and top 15 finishes at DRC and Atlanta. These are in no way comparable to Richmond, but in last year’s Richmond race he started 30th and finished 22nd. For the same reasons Gray and AWS are mentioned, Hocevar is worth a GPP dart as well, but I have less confidence in him. Spencer Davis is an okay option at $7,400 but I’d rather just pay up to Sauter and Smith. But if you can’t afford those two then Davis is the paydown option in the $7K range. It’s a tough slate to read and there are guys on here that I know nothing about. But I’m keeping a pretty tight driver pool and saving some bankroll for Sunday’s Cup race.

Core Drivers

Top Tier

Mid Range

Value Plays

Kyle Busch

Derek Kraus

Austin Wayne Self

John Hunter Nemechek

Chandler Smith

Carson Hocevar (Gross)

 

Johnny Sauter (Yikes)