THE SLATE:

(w/ Implied Team Totals & Odds via KenPom)

5 pm ET -- UTSA (72) at Oregon State (78) -- 150 total **DK ONLY**

6 pm ET -- Pittsburgh (67) at Miami FL (73) -- 140 total **DK ONLY**

7 pm ET -- TCU (65) at Oklahoma State (69) -- 134 total

7 pm ET -- Butler (61) at Villanova (71) -- 132 total

7 pm ET -- Ohio State (68) at Purdue (69) -- 137 total

7 pm ET -- South Florida (63) at Cincinnati (70) -- 133 total **DK ONLY**

9 pm ET -- Duke (76) at Notre Dame (71) -- 147 total

11 pm ET -- Montana (61) at Washington (69) -- 130 total **DK ONLY**

**The San Francisco-USC game on FanDuel has been postponed** 

Top Guards

 

Top Guards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Ethan ThompsonOSUTX-SA910031.65  
On the DK slate, we should be looking heavily at this Oregon State game with a total that’s notably higher than most matchups tonight. The Beavers will benefit greatly from facing mid-major UTSA, a team that plays fast with a below-average defense. Thompson is the Beavers’ best player with a team-leading 30% usage rate and per-game averages of 18.4 points, 3.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 31.7 DK points. He’s pretty much locked in to 30 or more DFS points on a nightly basis and his ceiling is very high in this favorable matchup. It’s encouraging that KenPom isn’t projected this as a blowout either - so we should get a full game workload from Thompson. He’ll likely go under-owned compared to the cheaper stud guards just below him - but fade at your own risk on DK.
Cade CunninghamOKSTTCU870035.58800032.38
Anyone else excited to roster the likely No. 1 NBA Draft pick tonight? This is only the second time Oklahoma State has been on the main slate this year - and that fact alone should boost his ownership in cash games even more with people wanting to plug him in finally. It’s hard to argue against him, though. The Cowboys’ offense begins and ends with Cunningham playing a point-forward role with team-high’s in usage rate (27%), shot volume, assist rate and three-point percentage (47% on 21 attempts). The true freshman’s elite scoring talent has been on full display this season and we can bank on him being heavily involved once again tonight with OK St opening up conference play. With production in all stat categories, his DFS floor and ceiling are always in the 30-40 DK point range - and we should expect that type of production again. You can use him in cash or GPP - but expect higher ownership because of the name brand.
RJ NembhardTCUOKST840032.17750029.37
Going head-to-head with Cunningham in that same game is another dynamic scoring guard. Nembhard is TCU’s go-to offensive threat with a 31% usage rate, 29% shots share and 33% assist rate - all impressive advanced stats for any Power 5 player. He’s put up 40 or more DK points in three of the last four games with stat-stuffing production and 20+ real point potential. He should have another valuable showing in this uptempo matchup where TCU will need to keep pace with Cunningham and Co. to pull out the win. Nembhard will probably go lower owned than Cunningham and other stud guards - but he’s great for cash or GPP.
Prentiss HubbNDDUKE820035.5770031.42
Despite not having the same name recognition as Cade Cunningham, Collin Gillespie or Ethan Thompson - we should not be ignoring Prentiss Hubb on this slate for a number of different reasons. First off, he’s been a DFS stud more often than not this year as Notre Dame’s clear-cut best player with usage rates and shots shares in the 30% range. He stuffs the stat sheet with pure points scored, assists and ancillary stats - allowing him to eclipse 33 DK points in three of four games thus far. Plus, he’ll be playing in one of the highest-scoring matchups of this slate and can easily have success against an under-performing Duke squad that’s allowed a lot of DFS value to opposing teams. After a down outing vs. Kentucky last game, expect a bounceback here from Hubb as a strong cash or GPP option.

Value Guards

 

Value Guards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Jeremy RoachDUKEND500017.56570023.27
Predicting any Duke player outside of Matthew Hurt right now is a bit like throwing darts for DFS purposes. In GPP’s, though, Roach has a ton of upside to outperform his salaries with Jalen Johnson out indefinitely and more offensive responsibility now spreading around to other Blue Devils. The freshman has one start thus far and has mostly operated as Duke’s sixth-man off the bench in recent games - and he finally saw an increase in offensive role last time out vs. Illinois. In the loss, Roach played a season-high 31 minutes with 13 points, seven assists, four reboards and 28 DK points. That type of performance is definitely a value at this price and we should see Roach have a more offensive role with Johnson out now.
Gianni HuntOSUTX-SA460014.67  
A DK-only value play here and in a high-scoring matchup that we should definitely not overlook on this slate. Hunt moved into Oregon State’s starting rotation last game and immediately logged 32 minutes. He’s now put up 20+ DK points in back-to-back games and has benefited from more playing time now that Alfred Hollins has left the team. After missing the first two games with a concussion, Hunt is now firmly entrenched in the rotation and he’ll likely be starting and/or playing big minutes moving forward. He’s a solid value in a pace-up matchup.
Myles TateBUTLEVU42008.530007.80
Butler has only played one game with tons of COVID cancellations - so it’s a bit tough to get a good gauge on their rotation. There’s some definite GPP value for their freshmen guards, though. Tate and Chuck Harris ($4200 DK / $3900 FD) are both three-star recruits who were expected to battle for a starting spot this summer. In the opener, though, it was Tate who got the starting nod and logged 31 minutes in the shooting guard role. Harris, meanwhile, played 20 minutes off the bench and had a larger usage rate and offensive role than Tate. We may need one or two more games of sample size to get a good read on the situation, but both Tate and Harris are very cheap for the upside they can provide - and they are interesting GPP options tonight.
PJ FullerTCUOKST410014480012.73
To put it bluntly, PJ Fuller is too cheap for what his real DFS value is (especially on DK) and he’s a solid salary-saver in all formats tonight. With Francisco Farabello out last game due to COVID protocols, Fuller played a season-high 31 minutes and put up a solid stat line of 13 points, four assists, two boards, a steal and 23.5 DK points. We’ll take that all day at these salaries if Farabello is out again - which unfortunately is something we probably won’t know until warmups. Even if Farabello is in, though, we saw Fuller play 20+ minutes in his two previous games with his teammate also playing - so there’s a decent floor here. The matchup is nice, too, with TCU getting a pace-boost vs. Oklahoma State.
Elijah OlaniyiMIAPITT30000  
This could be the most intriguing play on the whole slate - and it’s one we may have to wait until the last minute for. Olaniyi is a Stony Brook transfer who’s still awaiting word from the NCAA to become eligible for this season. That answer is expected to come Wednesday at some point - and the news may be out by the time you’re reading this - with the NCAA reportedly ready to accept all transfers to be eligible immediately. So if Olaniyi is active tonight in time for this game, he would immediately step into significant playing time in Miami’s backcourt with Chris Lykes and Kameron McGusty out and almost no depth behind starters Harlond Beverly and Isaiah Wong. At Stony Brook, Olaniyi was an all-conference player and has the proven talent to outperform this DK-only salary if given enough playing time - which would be the case if his transfer waiver is accepted before tipoff. Keep an eye out on my Twitter feed for the news.

Other Guards to Consider:

Collin Gillespie - Villanova ($7,700 DK / $6,600 FD)

Xavier Johnson - Pittsburgh ($7,600 DK Only)

Justin Moore - Villanova ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD)

DJ Steward - Duke ($6,600 DK / $5,300 FD)

Cormac Ryan - Notre Dame ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD)

Mike Miles - TCU ($5,700 DK / $5,700 FD)

Nate Pryor - Washington ($5,400 DK Only)

Musa Jallow - Ohio State ($4,100 DK / $3,400 FD)

Top Forwards

 

Top Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Matthew HurtDUKEND890034.06790031.77
With Jalen Johnson out indefinitely, Matthew Hurt will surely see an increase in offensive role and responsibility as the only consistent scorer on the team. Coach K has been shuffling around his rotations and starting lineups - and it gets even more confusing with Johnson out. We do know that Hurt has been really good this season - averaging 19 points and eight rebounds per game with the highest shot volume on the team so far. He was dominant against Michigan State earlier this year with 38 DK points thanks to his 21-and-13 stat line - and we could see something similar tonight. Notre Dame is terrible on the boards and at guarding the paint in general and we’ve seen numerous big men have good games against them this season. The price tag is high, but Hurt is good for cash or GPP in this matchup with a role increase.
Trevion WilliamsPUROSU850031.33680028.98
There aren’t many college basketball players who have more offensive responsibility on their respective teams than Trevion Williams does with Purdue. The big man owns a 33% usage rate and 35% shots share this season as the Boilermakers’ offense runs heavily through him in the paint when he’s on the court. Unfortunately, foul trouble usually limits Williams’ playing time every game - which can ultimately cap his DFS value as well. Case in point: he failed to eclipse 20 DK points in just 24 minutes vs. Miami last week before eventually fouling out. Still, the ceiling is very high for a guy with insane usage rates and nightly double-double potential. If E.J. Liddell is out for Ohio State tonight, Williams should have more success down low and be a great GPP option. Still, the risk is always there so be aware!
Warith AlatisheOSUTX-SA810029.6  
As much as we’d like to play Warith Alatishe simply because of his unique name - there’s actually some basketball-related reasoning. Oregon State in general will benefit a ton by facing a fast-paced UTSA squad that plays little to no defense and is subpar at rebounding so far. It’s a smash spot for Alatishe, who’s emerged as one of the best players in the Pac-12 and a nice wing complement to point guard Ethan Thompson. Plus, Alatish is the best rebounder for OSU - with double-digit boards in three straight - and he should easily dominate the paint in this matchup. The increased price tag may seem like a lot, but he’s been worth it in the right setting. Tonight is that for Alatishe and he should be popular in DK cash games.
Jeremiah Robinson-EarlVUBUTLE750029.04640026.97
You gotta love how reactionary the DFS sites are right now with volatile pricing game-to-game. Robinson-Earl is a great example of this as he’s priced down to a very affordable level after only 14.5 DK points last time out vs. Georgetown. That dud outing was very uncharacteristic of one of the Big East’s best big men - and we should expect a bounceback from him tonight. Robinson-Earl will face a Butler squad that’s had a long layoff between games. In Butler’s opener over two weeks ago, they got out-rebounded by Western Michigan and particularly on the offensive end. That’s where Robinson-Earl should feast with nightly double-double potential and as Villanova’s best rebounder in general. Expect him to out-perform these salaries as he should return to his 30-40 DFS point upside.

Value Forwards

 

Value Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Alexis YetnaUSFCIN510021.58  
On the DK slate, we have to strongly consider Yetna in all formats with this affordable price tag. After missing all of last season to injury, Yetna is now at full strength and is probably USF’s best player right now after being the AAC Freshman of the Year two years ago. He’s consistently playing 25-30 minutes and his DFS floor is usually high because of his rebounding and shot-blocking abilities. Look for USF to lean on his versatile scoring both in the paint and from outside in this tight matchup with Cincinnati - and he should provide 4x or 5x value at a price tag that’s honestly $1000 too cheap.
Zed KeyOSUPUR490017.4470016.24
One of the main player statuses to monitor tonight will be whether or not E.J. Liddell plays. The Ohio State big man missed Sunday’s game with a non-COVID related illness and is likely out tonight too. In his absence over the weekend, true freshman Zed Key stepped into a bigger role in the Buckeyes’ frontcourt. Key put up 36 DK points and a double-double with a 29% offensive usage rate in a season-high 21 minutes. That type of performance at sub-5k is obviously slate-breaking and he’s a great cash game value tonight if Liddell is indeed out.
Tari EasonCINUSF450016  
Eason is another DK-only play who might be highly owned in cash games because of the mispricing. The freshman has started the last two games for Cincy - in place of Rapolas Ivanauskas - and he’s put up 19 DK points with about 25 minutes played in both outings. The increase in playing time has clearly raised Eason’s DFS floor and ceiling as he’s seen an uptick in usage rate, rebounds and simply more opportunities to pick up ancillary stats. Despite only recently entering the starting rotation, Eason is second on the team in offensive usage rate (24%) and shot volume - behind only senior playmaker Keith Williams. If you’re in this price range on DK, look at Eason for cash for the strong floor as he probably deserves a 5k salary by now.
Anthony WalkerMIAPITT450014.44  
Well, it looks like we have plenty of value on the DK slate tonight. The Miami rotation is filled with cheap options who are forced to play more minutes with how many injuries the ‘Canes are dealing with. Anthony Walker is one of those benefiting from increased playing time with Chris Lykes, Kameron McGusty, Rodney Miller and Sam Waardenburg all out and forwards Matt Cross and Deng Gak also likely out tonight. On Saturday, Walker played a season-high 32 minutes and put up 23 DK points with that extended time. It’s very possible Walker enters the starting rotation tonight with so many Hurricanes injured - and he should be a great floor play with the increase in minutes and role on both ends.
Jaemyn BrakefieldDUKEND440014.25450013.18
If you’ve gotten this far in the playbook, it’s clear we should be targeting this Duke team with value opening up in Jalen Johnson’s absence. One or both of Jaemyn Brakefield and Mark Williams ($4000 DK / $4300 FD) could smash value at their cheap prices with big minutes boosts incoming tonight. We’ll have to wait and see who ends up starting in the frontcourt alongside Matthew Hurt, but the Blue Devils will likely use their two freshmen big men a lot more moving forward no matter who gets the first crack at playing time. Brakefield is the better cash play tonight because he’s already carved out a bench role as Johnson’s backup - and would be the likely like-for-like replacement in the rotation to get more time. Williams, a 7-footer, is more of a true center and the better GPP option of the two as he could end up starting if Coach K goes big with Hurt at the four - but his playing time has been limited thus far.

Other Forwards to Consider:

Kevin Samuel - TCU ($8,300 DK / $7,100 FD)

Nate Laszewski - Notre Dame ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

Kyle Owens - Montana ($6,100 DK Only)

Nysier Brooks - Miami FL ($5,500 DK Only)

Zach Edey - Purdue ($5,000 DK / $4,000 FD)

Mark Williams - Duke ($4,000 DK / $4,300 FD)

Justin Ahrens - Ohio State ($3,900 DK / $3,500 FD)

Example Lineups

Please note the lineups below are not meant for plug and play but examples that can be built using playbook information above.

 

DK Cash
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GRJ NembhardTCUOKST32.17$8,400
Pivot     
GPrentiss HubbNDDUKE35.5$8,200
Pivot     
GGianni HuntOSUTX-SA14.67$4,600
PivotElijah OlaniyiMIAPITT0$3,000
FWarith AlatisheOSUTX-SA29.6$8,100
Pivot     
FJaemyn BrakefieldDUKEND14.25$4,400
PivotZed KeyOSUPUR17.4$4,900
FAnthony WalkerMIAPITT14.44$4,500
PivotTari EasonCINUSF16$4,500
UtilJeremiah Robinson-EarlVUBUTLE29.04$7,500
PivotCade CunninghamOKSTTCU35.58$8,700
UtilPJ FullerTCUOKST14$4,100
Pivot     
    Total$49,800
   Pivot Total$49,900
DK GPP
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GEthan ThompsonOSUTX-SA31.65$9,100
PivotPrentiss HubbNDDUKE35.5$8,200
GCollin GillespieVUBUTLE29.75$7,700
PivotXavier JohnsonPITTMIA34.1$7,600
GMyles TateBUTLEVU8.5$4,200
Pivot     
FTrevion WilliamsPUROSU31.33$8,500
Pivot     
FAlexis YetnaUSFCIN21.58$5,100
Pivot     
FMark WilliamsDUKEND8.94$4,000
Pivot     
UtilKyle OwensMONTUW25.06$6,100
PivotNate LaszewskiNDDUKE31.12$7,300
UtilJeremy RoachDUKEND17.56$5,000
Pivot     
    Total$49,700
   Pivot Total$49,900
FD Cash
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GCade CunninghamOKSTTCU32.28$8,000
Pivot     
GRJ NembhardTCUOKST29.36$7,500
Pivot     
GPrentiss HubbNDDUKE31.42$7,700
PivotCollin GillespieNOVABUT27.75$6,600
GMyles TateBUTNOVA7.8$3,000
Pivot     
FMatthew HurtDUKEND31.77$7,900
Pivot     
FJeremiah Robinson-EarlNOVABUT26.96$6,400
Pivot     
FJaemyn BrakefieldDUKEND13.17$4,500
PivotJustice SueingOSUPURD22.68$5,800
UtilZed KeyOSUPURD16.23$4,700
PivotPJ FullerTCUOKST12.73$4,800
    Total$49,700
   Pivot Total$50,000
FD GPP
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GRJ NembhardTCUOKST29.36$7,500
Pivot     
GCade CunninghamOKSTTCU32.38$8,000
PivotPrentiss HubbNDDUKE31.42$7,700
GJeremy RoachDUKEND16.17$4,700
Pivot     
GChuck HarrisBUTNOVA13.1$3,900
PivotJustin MooreNOVABUT22.5$6,500
FTrevion WilliamsPURDOSU28.98$6,800
Pivot     
FMark WilliamsDUKEND8.55$4,300
Pivot     
FNate LaszewskiNDDUKE28.27$7,200
Pivot     
UtilKevin SamuelTCUOKST30.18$7,100
PivotDJ StewardDUKEND21.29$5,300
    Total$49,500
   Pivot Total$50,000