Highest Scoring Teams (DK ONLY):
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Gonzaga -- 82 Points (-2 vs. BYU)
BYU -- 80 Points (+2 vs. Gonzaga)
Duke -- 78 Points (-16 vs. Virginia Tech)
Arizona State -- 76 Points (-7 vs. Oregon State)
Mississippi -- 76 Points (-1 vs. Alabama)
Alabama -- 75 Points (+1 vs. Mississippi)
DePaul -- 75 Points (-1 vs. Georgetown)
Georgetown -- 74 Points (+1 vs. DePaul)
Arizona -- 74 Points (-5 vs. Oregon)
TOP PLAYS
Paul Reed - DePaul ($8,500)
It’s been tough to consistently trust DePaul’s junior center for DFS at his expensive salary, but tonight is a spot where he should have one of his better performances and be completely worth the pay up. First off, Paul Reed will benefit from playing in an uptempo game with Georgetown where there will be a lot of scoring and rebounding opportunities on both ends. Reed should have a huge advantage in the paint against a Hoyas frontcourt that could be without starting center Omer Yurtseven for a third straight game. When Reed faced Georgetown earlier this month (with Yurtseven sidelined), he easily put up 40 DK points with 12 points scored, 13 rebounds and two blocks. It’s also encouraging that performance came on the road, where Reed is performing a lot worse than at home - which gives him another bump in value tonight. Reed is averaging 42 DK points, 16.7 real points and 11 rebounds at home this season compared to 35 DK points, 12.3 real points and 10 rebounds on the road. The splits aren’t as bad as some other players - but the difference between having 40+ DK points and 35 or less is a big factor when deciding to pay up for Reed.
Tre Jones & Vernon Carey - Duke
Duke’s top two players are always in play for DFS and they are both very attractive tonight in all formats with a favorable matchup at home. For starters, we can bank on Coach K and the Blue Devils coming for blood after they just got blown out on the road by NC State in their last game and now have the benefit of playing at home - where they are expected to win comfortably over Virginia Tech. Despite the 22-point loss on Wednesday, Tre Jones ($8,400) still ended up with 38 DK points with his solid stat line of 17 points scored, nine rebounds, four assists and two steals. That’s basically par for the course for Duke’s sophomore point guard as he’s put up 38 or more DK points in three of the last four games and is averaging 34 DK points over the last ten outings. Jones is safe for cash games at this price tag. Meanwhile, Vernon Carey ($8,300) is likely more of a GPP option but he’s finally showing more consistency and upside when the matchup favors his skillset. That’s the case tonight as Virginia Tech is the worst offensive rebounding team in the ACC and are very undersized in the frontcourt to contain Carey’s 6-foot-10, 270-pound frame. The freshman center is coming off a big game against NC State when he had 49 DK points with 27 points scored, 12 boards and three blocks. That game is always in his bag and he could easily be the slate’s highest scorer if he dominates in the paint against VT.
Breein Tyree - Mississippi ($7,400)
One of the hottest scorers in all of college basketball hails from Ole Miss and Breein Tyree should be very popular on this slate in a fast-paced, high-scoring matchup with Alabama. Over the last five games, the senior point guard is averaging 30 PPG and has scored 38 and 40 real points in two separate outings. Over this span, he’s been a DFS stud with at least 33 DK points in four of five and 50 or more DK points in two of those. If all that proof didn’t make you want to play Tyree tonight, here’s a couple more reasons. Tyree should benefit a ton from playing at home tonight - he’s averaging 35 DK points and 22 real points while shooting 47% from the field and 41% from three in home games this season compared to 26 DK points, 18 real points, 38% from the field and 33% from three in road matchups. Furthermore, Mississippi gets a pace-up matchup against Alabama as the Crimson Tide always play in high-scoring, quick-tempo games with the third-fastest pace in the country. Tyree should probably be priced above 8k at this point and he’s a bargain and probably chalk tonight.
Killian Tillie - Gonzaga ($6,500)
Tillie is arguably Gonzaga’s best player when he’s fully healthy and we may finally be seeing that version of the 6-foot-10 senior. Tillie recently missed three of four games but he returned to the starting lineup on Thursday and promptly put up 33 DK points on 22 points scored and nine rebounds. Outside of the game when he rolled his ankle, Tillie has now scored 19 or more points in four straight and he recently put up 41 and 47 DK points, respectively, in back-to-back performances. This is a big game for Gonzaga on the road against rivals BYU - and we can bet that Tillie will be one of the top offensive options for the Zags. It seems that Tillie did not re-aggravate that ankle injury earlier this week and he should be safe for 30+ DK points once again. When Gonzaga faced BYU earlier this season, Tillie had 41 DK points with 22 points scored and 10 boards.
Jahvon Blair - Georgetown ($6,300)
Although Mac McClung returned on Wednesday, he only played eight minutes before re-aggravating his foot injury and sitting the rest of the game. It’s pretty likely that McClung is out tonight and Jahvon Blair will once again benefit by being the top scoring option in the Georgetown offense. When McClung recently missed four games, it was Blair who entered the starting lineup and instantly became the leading scorer for the Hoyas while regularly playing all 40 minutes. In the last five games without McClung, Blair is averaging 21.4 points scored and 32 DK points per outing while seeing the majority of shot attempts and usage in the offense. One of those games came against DePaul and Blair had a big performance with 30 points scored and 41.5 DK points. He’ll likely be needed even more tonight with Omer Yurtseven questionable to play after he sat out the last two games. In a fast-paced matchup, we should expect Blair to rack up enough shots to provide value with this leading scoring role for Georgetown.
Others to Consider:
Payton Pritchard - Oregon ($8,200)
Kira Lewis - Alabama ($8,200)
Remy Martin - Arizona State ($7,900)
Zeke Nnaji - Arizona ($7,800)
TJ Haws - BYU ($6,600)
VALUE PLAYS
Alonzo Verge - Arizona State ($6,000)
Despite coming off the bench for Arizona State, Alonzo Verge is usually one of the top offensive options on the team when he’s on the floor in a super sixth-man role. His recent scoring surge is a big reason why ASU has won six straight games including an upset over Oregon on Thursday. Over these last six, Verge is averaging 21 PPG while consistently leading the team in shot volume and offensive usage. In fact, the junior’s 30.3% shots share is a team-high for Arizona State during conference play and his 28% usage rate is a close second behind starting point guard Remy Martin. When Verge is in the game - which is about 30 minutes per - the offense mainly revolves around his offensive ability and that likely won’t stop now because ASU is winning by this formula. He’s now put up at least 33 DK points in four of the last five games and that production makes him a huge value at this salary that oddly has decreased tonight.
Josh Green - Arizona ($5,500)
Here’s another player in the mid-range that simply isn’t priced fairly on this slate. Josh Green is one of Arizona’s three best players - alongside fellow freshmen Nico Mannion and Zeke Nnaji - and he’s coming off two impressive outings. In the last two games, Green has put up 33 and 42 DK points while averaging 16.5 real points, five rebounds, 4.5 assists and four steals/blocks. He’s regularly priced in the low 6k range and this is almost a steal for the proven production he can provide. When Green faced Oregon earlier this season, he put up 29 DK points with 17 points scored, five boards, two assists and a steal. Plus, the youngster will also benefit from playing at home tonight where he’s averaging nine more DK points and five more real points per game than on the road - and is shooting a lot better from the field and from three-point range than in away games. This is a huge conference-defining matchup with Oregon and we can bank on Green playing virtually the whole game - which also gives more upside for ancillary stats in addition to his scoring role.
Jalen Coleman-Lands - DePaul ($5,100)
We should have a ton of exposure to this DePaul-Georgetown game because it involves two teams who like to play fast on offense, as this matchup resulted in 148 total points just a couple weeks ago. One cheaper option from both sides, though, is the Blue Demons’ senior guard Jalen Coleman-Lands. First off, Coleman-Lands is a regular starter who usually plays 35+ minutes for DePaul - and this already provides him a decent DFS floor with the big playing time. There’s also an offensive upside for him as the combo guard has comfortably emerged as the secondary scoring option behind DePaul’s two studs, Charlie Moore and Paul Reed. In the last ten games, Coleman-Lands is averaging a solid 13.4 real points and 21 DK points per outing and he’s put up at least 17 points scored and 24 DK points in three of the last four. One of those performances also came against tonight’s opponent, Georgetown, when he had 27.5 DK points with 17 points scored and six rebounds. We can realistically expect a repeat of that game with how fast-paced and high-scoring this rematch should be.
Zac Seljaas & Connor Harding - BYU
This BYU-Gonzaga matchup is another we ideally want to target heavily because it’s by far the highest projected total with both teams expected to score the most and second-most on the slate. It’s tough to game stack, though, with so many high-priced players - but two value options that we can look at are Zac Seljaas and Connor Harding. Both guys are seeing more playing time over the last couple games with Dalton Nixon sidelined - and that trend should continue tonight with Nixon expected to miss the next two games as well. Before last game, Seljaas ($3,900) had put up 12, 14 and 16 DK points in the three prior outings as he plays both the power forward and center positions in smaller BYU lineups. Harding ($3,700) is a bit safer than his teammate for DFS as he’s been able to accrue more ancillary stats and is averaging 15.7 DK points over the last seven games. Both guys are very much in play because their DFS production could make either one a 4x or better value on this slate.
Others to Consider:
Jaden Shackelford - Alabama ($6,400)
Rob Edwards - Arizona State ($5,100)
Stone Gettings - Arizona ($4,400)
Chandler Lawson - Oregon ($3,800)
Alfred Hollins - Oregon State ($3,700)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Tre Jones - DUKE ($8,400)
G: Breein Tyree - MISS ($7,400)
G: Jahvon Blair - GU ($6,300)
F: Paul Reed - DPU ($8,500)
F: Killian Tillie - GONZ ($6,500)
F: Alfred Hollins - OSU ($3,700)
U: Josh Green - AZ ($5,500)
U: Connor Harding - BYU ($3,700)