Highest Scoring Teams:
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Dayton -- 83 Points (-16 vs. Massachusetts) **DK ONLY**
Penn State -- 80 Points (-16 vs. Northwestern) **FD ONLY**
Florida State -- 77 Points (-9 vs. Syracuse)
Miami FL -- 77 Points (-2 vs. Wake Forest) **DK ONLY**
Butler -- 75 Points (-8 vs. Georgetown)
Wake Forest -- 75 Points (+2 vs. Miami FL) **DK ONLY**
Kansas -- 74 Points (-14 vs. Oklahoma)
Kentucky -- 73 Points (-10 vs. Mississippi)
Arkansas -- 72 Points (-4 vs. Mississippi State)
Wisconsin -- 70 Points (-6 vs. Nebraska)
Iowa State -- 70 Points (-2 vs. Texas)
Top Guards
Kamar Baldwin - Butler ($8,200 DK / $7,400 FD)
The expensive end of the guard position admittedly isn’t as good as previous Saturday slates, but one of the safest options is Butler’s stud combo guard. Kamar Baldwin’s high-usage, do-everything role for the Bulldogs keeps his DFS floor consistently high as he racks up stats in every category even if he’s not a high-volume scorer at times. Over the last four games, Baldwin is averaging 32.3 DK points per outing - and his 29% usage rate and 33% shots share are both fourth-best in the Big East. The senior has had to be more involved offensively lately with point guard Aaron Thompson banged up and Baldwin may be forced to have a ton of usage running the point this weekend as Thompson could sit out with a concussion he suffered on Wednesday. If that’s the case, Baldwin would be even more safe at these price tags because of the increase in role running the offense in a fast-paced matchup vs. Georgetown.
Devin Vassell - Florida State ($7,900 DK / $6,800 FD)
Although Devin Vassell has failed to reach 30 DK points in three straight games, this matchup against Syracuse could be just the right spot for him to return to his 40-50 DK point potential. We all know the Orange 2-3 zone defense allows for opposing three-point shooters to get a ton of looks from deep - and this plays right into Vassell’s skillset. The Florida State sophomore has made 46% of his team-high 56 three-point attempts during conference action - which is fourth-best in the ACC. It’s not a matter of if Vassell gets a bunch of three-point shots against ‘Cuse - but rather if he can get hot and make most of them. He excelled in a similar matchup against Virginia Tech’s zone defense earlier this month when he went 7-for-7 from deep and finished with 41 DK points. Even if he’s not making shots, Vassell also provides enough production in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals to give you 25+ DK points - but his DFS ceiling is very high if he’s making his three’s.
Breein Tyree - Mississippi ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD)
Breein Tyree is always capable of scoring in bunches and he’s been doing just that over the last three games and in the past month overall. The Ole Miss senior point guard exploded for 38 and 40 real points in two of the last three, respectively, and he’s averaging 24.5 points in the last ten outings. The matchup on the road against Kentucky is definitely a tougher one for Tyree and Mississippi, but we still need to be considering him for GPP’s as long as he’s shooting this hot. During conference play, Tyree’s 35% shots share is tops in the SEC ( his 30% usage rate is third) and he’s launched 19 or more shots in seven of the last ten games. This high tendency to shoot often keeps his DFS ceiling among the highest of this slate - but there is the chance he busts against a better defense on the road here. Roster with caution knowing there’s big upside potential as well.
Jahvon Blair - Georgetown ($6,000 DK / $4,100 FD)
We’ll start this section by saying Jahvon Blair’s price differential on FanDuel is criminal and he should be a near-lock on that site with a salary that hasn't changed despite his increase in offensive role. With Mac McClung sidelined the last three games, Blair has seen a massive uptick in offensive usage and shot volume. The junior has moved into the Hoyas’ tight starting rotation over these last three games and he’s played all 40 minutes with at least 16 shot attempts in each. During this three-game stretch with McClung out, Blair is averaging 23.7 real points and 34.8 DK points - numbers that are way better than his season averages and they make him worth the 6k on DK and a huge value on FD. We should continue to see Blair have his score-first role in the Georgetown offense with McClung unlikely to play again after not practicing all week.
Brevin Pritzl - Wisconsin ($5,300 DK / $4,100 FD)
As Wisconsin still deals with the departure of Kobe King from the program, Brevin Pritzl has benefited a ton from the increase in playing time and scoring role in the Badger offense. In the four games without King, the senior Pritzl has averaged 33 minutes per game (mostly off the bench) and 9.3 PPG as he plays the sixth-man shooter role on offense. Outside of a scoreless effort on the road at Minnesota a week ago, Pritzl has been very valuable at his depressed price tags - and he’s a massive value on FD with a salary that oddly remains unchanged. In Wisconsin’s most recent game, we saw Pritzl score a team-high 19 points while going 5-for-6 from three-point range - good for 35 DK points in the end. The Badgers now get to face one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten - and Pritzl put up 12 real points and 17 DK points in the previous meeting, going 4-for-8 from deep.
Prentiss Nixon & Terrence Lewis - Iowa State
On Wednesday, Iowa State played its first game without stud point guard Tyrese Haliburton and both Prentiss Nixon and Terrence Lewis benefited from larger offensive roles and more playing time. With Haliburton out for the year with a fractured wrist, we can expect Nixon and Lewis to continue to have a firm spot in the Cyclones’ rotation and both are safe cash plays Saturday. Nixon ($5,400 DK / $4,800 FD) stepped into the starting lineup last game and he promptly played every minute against Oklahoma with a balanced stat line of 10 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals - good for 30 DK points. It’s certainly encouraging to see him be that effective in his new role and we can expect 25-30 DK points yet again - he also had 26 DK points in the game that Haliburton left early. Meanwhile, Lewis ($4,500 DK / $4,000 FD) saw 25 minutes off the bench on Wednesday and finished with a team-high 17 points while going 7-for-9 from the field (3-for-5 from three-point range. The 23.5 DK points he provided was also encouraging to see from a guy who has been in and out of the Iowa State rotation this season - and we can definitely roll him out again at his cheap prices on this slate as he had 20 DK points in the game that Haliburton got hurt in. He could wind up being very chalky on this slate.
Other Guards to Consider:
GPP - Marcus Garrett - Kansas ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
GPP - D’Mitrik Trice - Wisconsin ($6,700 DK / $6,100 FD)
CASH - Trey Landers - Dayton ($6,400 DK Only)
GPP - Isaiah Wong - Miami FL ($5,600 DK Only)
CASH - D.J. Stewart Jr. - Mississippi State ($5,300 DK / $4,900 FD)
CASH - Desi Sills - Arkansas ($4,500 DK / $4,700 FD)
Top Forwards
Reggie Perry - Mississippi State ($8,600 DK / $8,400 FD)
Usually we like to target Reggie Perry when he’s at home, but the matchup and upside of Mississippi State’s center today might be too good to pass up. For starters, Perry is always one of the best forwards on any slate because of his 45-60 DFS point potential - just as he’s done in two of the last four games and numerous times this season. When he faced Arkansas last month, Perry was dominant as he had 51 DK points, 26 points scored, 13 rebounds and two blocks. He could easily duplicate that performance today because Arkansas is the worst rebounding team in the SEC and are very undersized in the frontcourt. Perry represents a big mismatch down low against them and that much was proven in the previous meeting. The only worry for Perry today is the fact that he struggles so much on the road - averaging 30 DK points in away games vs. 41 DK points at home.
Obi Toppin - Dayton ($8,500 DK Only)
If you’re playing on DraftKings, one of the best plays overall (per usual) is Dayton’s Obi Toppin - who has played himself into the NBA Draft lottery conversation over the course of this season. In almost every conference game he’s played lately, Toppin has far-and-away looked like the best player on the court with Dayton currently undefeated against Atlantic 10 competition. The sophomore power forward should have no problem asserting his dominance against a UMass squad that’s not only one of the worst rebounding teams in the A-10, but they have the second-worst defense in the conference and allow the majority of opposing points inside. This plays perfectly into Toppin’s offensive strengths and it’s not surprising to see him put up 36.5 DK points in his previous meeting against UMass - a 28-point win. That DFS range is what we can expect from him today as Toppin is averaging 37 DK points over the last ten and failed to do it just twice during the 10-game span.
Lamar Stevens - Penn State ($7,200 FD Only)
If you’re playing on FanDuel, one of the hottest players in the country is Lamar Stevens and we’re probably getting a discount on him at this price. The Penn State senior has shown the legit upside to put up 35-40 FD points over the last month as he’s become the clear top scoring option in the Nittany Lions’ offense - which is definitely worth more on this slate with PSU projected to score the most points. During conference play, Stevens’ 31% usage rate and 30% shots share are tops on the team and among the top six in the Big Ten. His matchup today is a very favorable one as Northwestern owns the worst defense in the conference this year and are also the Big Ten’s worst rebounding team as well. Stevens should find a ton of success scoring inside from his power forward position and could provide more rebounds than usual. He makes for a pretty attractive cash play on this slate with so much value.
Quincy Guerrier - Syracuse ($5,400 DK / $4,700 FD)
One of the key injury situations to monitor is Syracuse possibly playing without Elijah Hughes today. Hughes, the Orange’s best player, recently suffered a lower body injury that forced him out of Tuesday’s game just three minutes in. If Hughes sits, then Quincy Guerrier will likely enter the starting rotation and have a good chance at continuing his hot play lately. The freshman has been Syracuse’s best bench player during conference play and his defense had awarded him with more minutes in ‘Cuse’s short rotation. When Hughes got hurt last game, Guerrier played a season-high 37 minutes and put up 37 DK points with a double-double and a big increase in offensive role and shot volume in Hughes’ absence. The matchup against Florida State is definitely a tough one today, but Guerrier is a definite value if Hughes indeed sits - which seems likely according to reports.
Kamaka Hepa & Royce Hamm - Texas
The Texas frontcourt is dealing with a ton of injuries right now and both Kamaka Hepa and Royce Hamm will be solid values because they’ll have to play a ton of minutes without much depth behind them. The Longhorns will be without its two starting big men, Jericho Sims and Kai Jones, and key backup Gerald Liddell remains out as well. All those absences could result in both Hepa and Hamm starting today - and at least outperforming their price tags. Hepa ($4,300 DK / $3,900 FD) actually started seven games before a recent injury, but he returned to the starting rotation on Monday and provided a solid 16 DK points. When he was a starter, Hepa regularly put up 15-25 DK points and he’ll have more upside now that Sims is out. Meanwhile, Hamm ($4,000 DK / $3,200 FD) has played minimally off the bench this season but he’s been getting more meaningful minutes recently with Texas’ slew of injuries. The junior has put up 19 and 17 DK points in the last two games, respectively, and we can expect that type of production or more today with an increase in minutes.
Other Forwards to Consider:
CASH - Udoka Azubuike - Kansas ($8,300 DK / $7,900 FD)
GPP - Nick Richards - Kentucky ($7,500 DK / $6,800 FD)
GPP - Micah Potter - Wisconsin ($6,000 DK / $4,700 FD)
CASH - Andre Wesson - Ohio State ($5,500 DK / $4,600 FD)
GPP - Patrick Williams - Florida State ($5,300 DK / $4,400 FD)
CASH - Reggie Chaney - Arkansas ($4,800 DK / $4,200 FD)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Kamar Baldwin - BUT ($8,200)
G: Devin Vassell - FSU ($7,900)
G: Terrence Lewis - ISU ($4,500)
F: Obi Toppin - DAY ($8,500)
F: Reggie Chaney - ARK ($4,800)
F: Royce Hamm - UT ($4,000)
U: Quincy Guerrier - SYR ($5,400)
U: D’Mitrik Trice - WISC ($6,700)
FanDuel Example Lineup:
G: Kamar Baldwin - BUT ($7,400)
G: Breein Tyree - MISS ($7,500)
G: Terrence Lewis - ISU ($4,000)
G: Jahvon Blair - GTWN ($4,100)
F: Reggie Perry - MSST ($8,400)
F: Lamar Stevens - PSU ($7,200)
F: Royce Hamm - TEX ($3,200)
U: Udoka Azubuike - KU ($7,900)