Highest Scoring Teams:

(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)

  • Louisville -- 83 Points (-25 vs. Miami OH) **DK ONLY**

  • LSU -- 82 Points (-10 vs. East Tennessee State)

  • Gonzaga -- 79 Points (-9 vs. North Carolina)

  • Kentucky -- 76 Points (-11 vs. Utah)

  • Michigan State -- 75 Points (-9 vs. Northwestern)

  • Oregon -- 75 Points (-19 vs. Montana) **DK ONLY**

  • Saint Mary’s -- 72 Points (-1 vs. Arizona State)

  • East Tennessee State -- 72 Points (+10 vs. LSU)

Top Guards 

(Servo's plays)

Ashton Hagans - Kentucky ($7,900 DK / $7,300 FD)

This time last year, Hagans was sitting comfortably in the 5-6k range as he played a smaller role on a more talented Kentucky squad. This season, though, the sophomore point guard is UK’s on-court leader as he’s taken on more offensive responsibilities as one of the elder statesman on an inexperienced team. Hagans leads the team in usage rate (25.8%) and his 43.6% assist rate is the 6th-best mark in the country. While he normally doesn’t shoot a ton, he gets to the foul line pretty often and is one of the best on-ball defenders in the nation. He’s coming off a near triple-double performance against Georgia Tech where he put up 42 DK points with his 21 points scored, seven assists, seven rebounds and two steals. Hagans has hit a very high-floor stride right now for DFS as he’s put up 34 or more DK points in six straight while averaging 16.3 points, 8.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals during that span. He has the ball in his hands a ton when UK is on offense and he’s taken on a much larger offensive role with Nate Sestina missing the last three games. 

Joel Ayayi - Gonzaga ($7,300 DK / $6,700 FD)

There are a ton of attractive DFS options on this Gonzaga team and we definitely want a piece of them as the Zags will be in a quick tempo game vs. UNC and are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the slate. Ayayi, though, could be in line for a big game since he doesn’t have to compete with Cole Anthony in the Tar Heels’ backcourt and has quietly become a major part of Gonzaga’s offense. The sophomore combo-guard began the season on the bench as the Zags’ offensive-minded sixth-man, but Ayayi has now started the last three games in Admon Gilder’s place. Head coach Mark Few will likely stick with that lineup change after they just beat Arizona and Washington over the last two games with the offense clicking. Ayayi brings a little bit of everything to the Zags’ starting rotation as he leads the team in assist rate (23%), is second in defensive rebounding rate (20%) and is shooting 40% from three-point range (20-for-50). All of this high involvement has allowed him to average 14.3 points, 5.3 assists and 6.7 rebounds per game over these last three starts. Ayayi looks pretty safe in all formats as he’s averaged 33 DK points since he entered the starting lineup. 

Both Gach - Utah ($6,600 DK / $5,200 FD)

While Timmy Allen is putting up the better overall numbers for Utah right now, it’s Both Gach who’s playing a major role offensively and he will likely be the go-to guy at times against Kentucky tonight. Plus with Utes’ point guard Rylan Jones possibly out for a second straight game, it will be Gach who should be handling the ball a ton on offense from the point position. The sophomore combo-guard is second behind Allen in usage and shots share and his 20.8% assist rate leads the team with Jones out. Jones practiced in limited fashion earlier this week and some reports say he’s likely another day or two away from being able to suit up for Utah. If Jones is out, we should see Gach running point tonight and his 6-foot-6 frame makes him a very tough matchup. With Jones out last game, Gach played a season-high 37 minutes and contributed across all stat categories. He has legit triple-double upside as he posted one earlier in the season. On FD, Gach looks like a massive value with the price differential - but he seems pretty safe on DK as well with how much usage he’ll see tonight. 

Christian Keeling & K.J. Smith - North Carolina 

In case you missed the news, North Carolina’s stud point guard Cole Anthony will be sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks after undergoing a procedure on his knee - so there’s a ton of usage and playing time available in the Tar Heels’ backcourt moving forward. Plus, guard Leaky Black sat out Sunday’s game with a foot injury and is questionable to play tonight (although he did travel with the team). When Anthony and Black sat out UNC’s last game vs. Wofford, Christian Keeling ($4,400 DK / $4,200 FD) and K.J. Smith ($3,000 DK / $4,000 FD) both entered the starting lineup and instantly became solid value plays. Keeling, a senior transfer from Charleston Southern, had a team-high 30% usage rate on Sunday and put up 21 DK points with his eight points, nine rebounds and two assists in 20 minutes. Keeling should start tonight even if Black is back since he started UNC’s first four games of the year when Brandon Robinson was out. Meanwhile, Smith logged a season-high 26 minutes last time out and provided 16 DK points with a 20% usage rate and his seven points, four assists and three boards. Smith, a former walk-on, hadn’t played more than nine minutes in any game this season before Sunday and he may head back to the bench tonight - especially if Black returns. However if Smith ends up starting again and Black sits, he should be strongly considered as a massive value on this slate considering how much he was involved last game - especially on DK at min price. 

Marlon Taylor - LSU ($3,800 DK / $4,000 FD) 

LSU’s senior guard could finally return to the rotation tonight after missing the first nine games of the season with a foot injury. Head coach Will Wade said Taylor will “hopefully” play on Wednesday but would be on a minute restriction with 12-15 reserve minutes expected if he does play. Obviously the cheap price tag on both sites makes Taylor more attractive if he suits up, but definitely roster with caution because LSU will be careful with him in his first game back. Still, Taylor could wind up returning value in his limited action. He started 24 of 35 games last year for LSU while averaging 6.7 points and 3.6 rebounds per game - and Taylor was expected to have a bigger role for the Tigers this season after the team lost its top two leading scorers to the NBA Draft. Again, don’t expect a huge return from Taylor tonight in his first game back - but he could potentially give you 15-20 DK points if he’s contributing across multiple stat categories while he’s on the court. Limit your exposure to GPP contests only. 

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Skylar Mays - LSU ($8,100 DK / $6,500 FD)

  • Cassius Winston - Michigan State ($8,100 DK / $7,100 FD)

  • Javonte Smart - LSU ($6,800 DK / $6,300 FD)

  • Brandon Robinson - North Carolina ($6,500 DK / $5,100 FD)

  • Alonzo Verge - Arizona State ($5,400 DK / $5,400 FD)

  • Daivien Williamson - East Tennessee State ($4,400 DK / $4,700 FD)

(Varney's Plays)

Jordan Ford - Saint Mary’s - FD $6,600 DK $7,800

Arizona State plays at the nation’s 64th fastest pace, so we’ll be looking to target a few of these St. Mary’s players that typically play extremely slow (343rd in pace). Jordan Ford is the leader of the Gaels and he’s extremely consistent, posting 25+ fantasy points in seven of the last eight games. Head also reached 40 fantasy points twice in the last five. Along with the consistent production, Ford is on the floor for nearly the entire game. Over the last six games, Ford has averaged 38 minutes and hasn’t gone under 35. With the Gaels playing up in pace, Ford is going to shoot the ball an extra 6-8 times and will have a bunch more peripherals fall in his lap. Ford is my favorite point-per-dollar guard on the slate and I can’t see a way he gets held under 30 fantasy points here. He’s a great play in all formats. 

Brandon Robinson - UNC - FD $5,100 DK $6,500

With Cole Anthony out for the next four to six weeks, Brandon Robinson is going to be asked to step up. There are going to be three or four other guys that get attention at guard, but Robinson is the only real scoring threat left on the perimeter. He went over 30 fantasy points (16 pts, six rebounds, five assists) against Wofford with Anthony out last game and I’m expecting similar production here. He’s locked into 30+ minutes and will likely finish around 33-35. Gonzaga plays at the 80th fastest pace in the country and the Tar Heels will see a few extra possessions in turn. Robinson is going to be super chalk on this slate, but it’s chalk you eat and move on. Robinson is locked into the minutes and the production isn’t going anywhere with Anthony out of the picture. 

Tray Boyd III - ETSU - FD $6,000 DK $5,800

Boyd doesn’t start for the East Tennessee Bucs, but he plays big minutes and leads the team in scoring. He’s scored 18+ points and 25+ fantasy points in three of the last four games. The Buccaneers are going to need Boyd in a big way against LSU as they put up 80+ points in most games. Boyd will shoot 15-20 times here and his price is far too low to miss value. Bo Hodges is the more expensive option, but I’d much rather have Tray Boyd as he’ll shoot more and have the ball in his hands down the stretch of the game stays at all close. 

Ashton Hagans - Kentucky - FD $7,300 DK $7,900

Hagans didn’t come into the season as a guy we expected to play with this fantasy dominance, but he’s been insanely consistent this season and has taken the reigns at guard. He’s been over 32 fantasy points in six straight games now and faces off with a Utah Team that ranks in the top 100 in Pace. Kentucky will see a few extra possessions and Hagans is a guy that will take advantage of the uptick in peripherals available for grabs. There is a lot of value on this slate and we need to spend this money somewhere. Give me the guaranteed 30 fantasy points on a slate that has so many uncertainties.

Joel Ayayi - Gonzaga - FD $6,700 DK $7,300

Since joining the starting lineup, Joel Ayayi has put up 34,25, and 34 fantasy points. He’ll draw the start once again and has proven on a consistent basis that he can stuff the stat sheet. The Tar Heels are in “figure it out” mode with Anthony on the shelf and I don’t expect their defense to be at peak efficiency tonight. The Zags are 10-point favorites in this game, so Vegas definitely expects the Tar Heels to run into some growing pains. Ayayi will likely be covered by Brandon Robinson with the replacement of Anthony on Woolridge. Robinson isn’t known for his defense and he’ll already be taking on a larger offensive role than normal. Ayayi is going to put up another 25-35 fantasy points and his price is still affordable on both sites. 

UNC Value without Anthony.
This is a very interesting spot. Assuming Leaky Black is also out, K.J Smith will see another 25 minutes and he’s a great play for value. With Cole Anthony out, there are plenty of shots up for grabs and nobody that loves to shoot to take them. A big issue for UNC looking forward is their lack of a shot creator. A guy that may pick up some playing time is Jeremiah Francis. He’s risky, but the 4-star recruit has a ton of upside if he gets minutes. He can create his own shot and gets others involved beautifully as well. Christian Keeling is pretty boom or bust, but the minutes are more locked in now and he has a ton of upside. If Leaky Black plays and is a full go, he will be low-owned and very interesting for tournaments. Andrew Platek and Justin Pierce will get a boost as well, though neither are on my radar tonight.

Top Forwards

(Servo's Plays)

Jordan Nwora - Louisville ($8,600 DK Only)

On DraftKings, the team projected to score the most points tonight is Louisville and their clear-cut best player is Jordan Nwora. Even in a likely blowout win over Miami (OH), we can safely roster Nwora in all formats because of his high usage on offense giving him a high DFS floor and ceiling any time he’s on the court. The junior wing leads the Cardinals in usage rate (30.7%) and shots share (36.1%) and both those marks are some of the best in all of college basketball (46th and 13th, respectively). Plus, he’s one of the better rebounders on the team and is shooting 43.5% from three-point range on 62 attempts thus far. All those stats and high involvement have allowed Nwora to average 35.9 DK points this season with a recent uptick in production over the last four games when he’s averaging 39.3 DK points with a pair of 44-point performances. He should be able to feast on the lesser competition of Miami (OH) tonight and have another high-floor, high-ceiling game to anchor our DK lineups. 

Armando Bacot & Garrison Brooks - North Carolina

As we mentioned above, the Cole Anthony injury for North Carolina is the most notable on tonight’s slate and while it opens up value in the backcourt - we should also look towards the Tar Heels’ forwards to get a bump in usage and shot volume. Anthony was a do-it-all playmaking point guard for UNC and without him, the offense should now run more through their big men down low with a massive step back in talent at the guard position. This is where Armando Bacot ($7,700 DK / $5,800 FD) and Garrison Brooks ($7,500 DK / $5,900 FD) will be needed more than ever - especially against Gonzaga’s loaded frontcourt. We should expect both Bacot and Brooks to play a ton of minutes (assuming they stay out of foul trouble) and see the majority of the offensive usage and shot attempts. In the Heels’ previous game vs. Wofford - without Anthony - Bacot saw a team-high 30% usage rate and put up 30.75 DK points with his eight points scored, 13 rebounds and three blocks in 29 minutes. On the season, the true freshman Bacot is second on the team in usage (25%) and shots share (24%) - trailing only Anthony - and is the Heels’ best rebounder. Meanwhile, Brooks played a team-high 34 minutes last game and put up 36.5 DK points with his 17 points and 12 boards. Both guys seem a little pricey on DK, but they could easily return value with how much usage and shot volume they both will see. On FD, both guys are priced down from what they probably should be and thus are better values on that site. 

Corey Kispert - Gonzaga ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD)

We definitely want some exposure to the Gonzaga players tonight in a fast-paced matchup with North Carolina and the team projected to score the second or third most points on the slate, depending on the site. Corey Kispert is one of the more affordable Zags tonight for his salary and could take advantage of a favorable matchup for his skill set. Kispert is one of the best three-point shooters for Gonzaga this season as he’s taken a team-high 72 attempts from deep and has made 40.3% of them. Now he gets to face a UNC defense that does not defend the three-point line well at all - allowing 43% of opposing points from deep (the 4th-worst mark in the country). Plus, Kispert has the highest minutes share on the team (80.6%) and has double-digit shot attempts in five of the last six games. It’s encouraging to see his shot volume be that high even with Killian Tillie back. Speaking of Tillie, he is a game-time decision tonight after hurting his ankle last game - if he’s out or even limited, it should mean more usage and scoring opportunities for Kispert. 

N’Faly Dante - Oregon ($4,500 DK Only)

If you’re playing on DraftKings tonight, it might be hard to fade N’Faly Dante as he should be very popular at this pretty affordable price tag. The 6-foot-11, 252-pound freshman is set to make his season debut tonight after he had to sit out the early part of the year due to poor academics. Dante was the 14th-best player in this year’s freshman class, per the 247 Sports composite rankings, and he’s likely a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. There’s no guarantee yet on how many minutes Dante will see in his first game back, but he has been practicing with the team and would instantly be the biggest body in Oregon’s frontcourt when he’s out there. Even if he sees 15-20 minutes off the bench, Dante should be able to return value with upside for much more considering how talented he is. His big frame will be handful for Montana down low as the team is terrible on the offensive boards and doesn’t have anyone taller than 6-foot-8 in their regular rotation. DK has price him appropriately because of the unknown surrounding his playing time right out of the gate - but he has the potential to be the best value on the slate if we get some clarity on that front. 

Gabe Brown - Michigan State ($4,500 DK / $4,800 FD)

With Rocket Watts expected to sit out a third straight game, we should see Gabe Brown start yet again for Michigan State and he’ll be one of the better value plays on both sites. Brown started the last two games in Watts’ stead and he provided 26 and 18 DK points in 34 and 27 minutes, respectively, in those outings. The 6-foot-7 sophomore was already getting 20-25 minutes off the bench when Watts was healthy and he’s now cemented his role in the Michigan State rotation with this increase in playing time. Brown is averaging 17.3 DK points per game this season, but we can realistically expect more than that tonight as he’s averaging 20.1 DK points over the last four games. On the road in a conference showdown with Northwestern, we should see the Spartans’ rotation tighten even more which would result in Brown and his longer frame on the court for another 30 or so minutes - providing plenty of opportunities to return 4x or 5x value. 

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Timmy Allen - Utah ($8,500 DK / $8,200 FD)

  • Malik Fitts - Saint Mary’s ($7,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

  • Filip Petrusev - Gonzaga ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD)

  • Trendon Watford - LSU ($6,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

  • Malik Williams - Louisville ($4,800 DK Only)

  • Keion Brooks - Kentucky ($4,100 DK / $4,400 FD)

(Varney's Plays)

Garrison Brooks & Armando Bacot - UNC - FD $5,900 - $5,800 DK $7,500 - $7,700

Continuing with the North Carolina theme, Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot are going to take over with Cole Anthony out. Brandon Robinson and the two forwards will likely take up most of the shots until Anthony returns, and there is no issue stacking them as their prices are nowhere near where they will be even next week. Once prices are adjusted for an Anthony-less Tar Heels, these guys will all be elite spends. His 20 shots a night are now up for grabs and I expect Bacot and Brooks to pick up at least 6-8 a piece. If you make me pick one, Garrison Brooks is a bit more consistent and less likely to run into foul trouble. Bacot has more uspide, though, and I’m far from opposed to just locking in both of these guys. I fully expect 50 fantasy points between the two in one way or another.

Corey Kispert - GONZ - FD $6,200 DK $6,200

Whether Killian Tillie plays or not, Corey Kispert is locked into his minutes and role as a scorer. He’s been over 30 minutes in all but one game this season and has been over 21 fantasy points in five of the last six. Kispert is going to shoot the ball a ton, so you know what you’re getting when you roster the guy. There’s always the chance he goes cold, but I don’t find it likely against a Tar Heels defense that’s trying to figure out new rotations. Filip Petrusev is in play on the high-end and Drew Timme on the low if Tillie is ruled out. 

Malik Fitts - Saint Mary’s - FD $6,900 DK $7,900

We touched on Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts is in play for the same reason. He’s priced like a guy who plays on the 344th fastest team in the country, also known as the 16th slowest. Tonight, they’ll face an Arizona State team that plays at a top 70 pace. That means an extra 8-10 possessions for St. Mary’s and a bunch more fantasy points for the likes of Ford and Fitts. He’s as consistent a big man you’ll find, and it’s even more impressive knowing he does so on an extremely slow team. He’s been over 32 minutes in 10 of 11 games and over 30 fantasy points in five straight. With a lot of unknowns on the slate, I’m more than happy to lock in 30 fantasy points and nobody would be surprised if Malik Fitts went for 50 fantasy points in a fast-paced match-up against an Arizona State interior that consists of Romello White and Taeshon Cherry. All the Fitts.

Jeromy Rodriguez - ETSU - FD $5,100 DK $5,500

With East Tennessee sewing a big boost in pace, I’ll look their way for value at guard. Jeromy Rodriguez has seen inconsistent minutes, but he just put up 48 fantasy points a game ago and is super cheap. Against an LSU team that’s going to put up points, the scoring punch of Jeromy Rodriguez will be needed. He’s definitely a risky play as five fantasy points would surprise nobody, but neither would 40. You’re going to get Rodriguez for sub-10% ownership and he’s an elite tourney play. 

Nick Richards - Kentucky - FD $6,200 DK $7,400

With Nate Sestina out, Nick Richards is fully locked into his minutes. Against a Utah squad that plays fast and doesn’t have much of an interior presence outside of Timmy Allen, I love the play. Richards is a safe bet for 25 fantasy points and he’s shown the ability to get into the 40’s multiple times already this season. He’s an elite rebounder and Kentucky feeds him in the paint when mismatched. Richards is an easy play in this game as he will be needed for the size, but also won’t have anyone on the defense that can handle him. Forward is a position I like a lot more tonight than I usually do.

DraftKings Example Lineup:

G: Ashton Hagans - UK ($7,900)

G: Joel Ayayi - GONZ ($7,300)

G: Christian Keeling - UNC ($4,400)

F: Jordan Nwora - UL ($8,600)

F: Corey Kispert - GONZ ($6,200)

F: Gabe Brown - MSU ($4,500)

U: N’Faly Dante - ORE ($4,500)

U: Both Gach - UTAH ($6,600)

 

FanDuel Example Lineup:

G: Ashton Hagans - UK ($7,300)

G: Brandon Robinson - UNC ($5,100)

G: Joel Ayayi - GONZ ($6,700)

G: Cassius Winston - MSU ($7,100)

F: Gabe Brown - MSU ($4,800)

F: Armando Bacot - UNC ($5,800)

F: Corey Kispert - GONZ ($6,200)

U: Filip Petrusev - GONZ ($7,000)