After an entertaining Thursday slate of Sweet 16 action, we’re back for another CBB DFS Playbook with Friday’s four games presenting some tasty college basketball matchups - whether you play DFS or not! Of course Duke and Zion Williamson will be very popular, but you’ll see there’s enough value across each of the eight teams to build some interesting lineups for GPP’s and cash games.
Much like yesterday, the two earlier matchups on Friday are clearly the higher-scoring of the bunch - while the later ones are projected to contain less scoring overall. With such a shorter slate than we’re used to, we definitely want to have more exposure to the LSU-Michigan State and Auburn-North Carolina tilts with both games expected to have 150-160 total points scored between them.
DraftKings and FanDuel both have all four games on their slates with the earliest matchup (Auburn-UNC) tipping at 7:09 pm ET.
As we’ve done for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, we will point out the teams on this slate who are projected to score the most (and least) amount points of all eight teams in action (according to KenPom). That’s where you should generally start your focus when it comes to lineup-building. Then, we’ll outline the top cash and GPP plays to lock into your lineups for the slate.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Teams to Target:
NORTH CAROLINA - 82 Implied Points vs. Auburn (7:29 pm ET)
MICHIGAN STATE - 80 Implied Points vs. LSU (7:09 pm ET)
AUBURN - 78 Implied Points vs. North Carolina (7:29 pm ET)
Teams to Fade:
HOUSTON - 66 Implied Points vs. Kentucky (9:57 pm ET)
KENTUCKY - 68 Implied Points vs. Houston (9:57 pm ET)
VIRGINIA TECH - 70 Implied Points vs. Duke (9:39 pm ET)
Guards
Cassius Winston - MSU ($8,800 DK / $8,600 FD)
Winston is the most expensive guard on Friday’s slate - and for good reason. The Spartans’ point guard has averaged 35 DK points over his last six games, including 36 and 34 in opening-round wins over Bradley and Minnesota. His role as Michigan State’s best distributor and leading scorer will be even more important against LSU, who has a strong presence in the paint with talented shot-blockers and rebounders and a great point guard of its own in Tremont Waters. Winston has been a very consistent DFS play all season long as he’s averaging 36.2 DK points per game on the year as the anchor in MSU’s lineup despite all the injuries they’ve dealt with. In cash games, it may be more optimal to roll out Zion Williamson and one or two other high-priced forwards instead of paying up at guard - yet getting a guaranteed 30+ DK points from Winston is hard to argue with if you want to go the safe route.
Coby White - UNC ($7,400 DK / $7,400 FD)
North Carolina could be dealing with a couple key absences on Friday as Kenny Williams is questionable to play after missing practice this week with a hamstring injury and Nassir Little likely a gametime call as he recovers from the flu. White’s usage will definitely increase if one or both are limited or end up sitting out - making him pretty attractive at this price, which is notably less than the regular 8k range he’s been at for much of this season. Auburn likes to play fast on offense and hoist up tons of three-pointers - which plays right into White’s strengths as a fast-break point guard who can keep up with the high-speed pace of this game. In the first two games of this tournament, the freshman put up 28 and 30 DK points in wins over Iona and Washington, respectively, with four made three-pointers and 17 points scored against the Huskies in the Round-of-32. During conference play, White’s offensive usage, assist rate, field-goal percentage and shot volume all ranked among the top 10 in the ACC - he’s the catalyst for a North Carolina team projected the score the most points of anyone on this slate. If you decide not to play Cassius Winston and/or Tremont Waters at the top-end of the guard position, White becomes a pretty attractive secondary option for cash games and GPP’s.
Skylar Mays - LSU ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD)
Mays was LSU’s third-leading scorer during the regular season, but it’s been a different story so far in the tournament. The junior led the Tigers in scoring in each of the two opening-round games - scoring 19 points vs. Yale and 16 vs. Maryland - while shooting 46% from three-point range (6-for-13). In those outings, Mays put up 25 and 30 DK points, respectively, yet his DFS salary has interestingly gone down on both sites for Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup vs. Michigan State. We could see Mays lead LSU in scoring yet again in this one as Tigers’ point guard Tremont Waters will have a tough one-on-one matchup with Cassius Winston and Naz Reid and the other LSU bigs will have to compete in the paint with a trio of talented Spartan forwards (Kenny Goins, Xavier Tillman and Nick Ward). With how active Mays can be as a true shooter, driving to the rim and putting up decent peripheral stats, he can easily 5x his salary - just as he did in a three-game stretch a month ago when he averaged 34.4 DK points at the tail-end of the regular season.
Jemarl Baker - UK ($3,000 DK / $3,200 FD)
The month of March is as much about star players shining in the spotlight as it is about unknowns emerging from the depths of the bench. Baker definitely belongs in that latter category. The redshirt freshman missed all of last season for Kentucky and has averaged just 9.3 minutes and 2.5 points per game in 25 outings this year. Yet, the former four-star recruit has played a much bigger role in the Wildcats’ rotation during the tournament - playing 24 and 18 minutes, respectively, in the opening round games. His 15 total points scored against Abilene Christian and Wofford were more than he scored in the previous 10 games combined - plus he put up at least 12 DK points in each outing. Baker did play a lot of garbage-time in the 35-point first-round win for Kentucky, but he was out there for critical moments against Wofford in the Round-of-32. We saw him aggressively defend sharpshooters Nathan Hoover and Fletcher Magee, and he also hit a clutch three-pointer in the second-half to tie the game. Baker and hungry energy off the bench helped Kentucky survive Wofford’s upset bid last weekend - and he could continue to get extended playing time vs. Houston’s talented guards. Getting 4x value for a minimum price player is very valuable this late in the season, and it could help you pay up for one more expensive option in your lineups. Limit your exposure to GPP’s though, especially if PJ Washington is back for Kentucky.
Other Guards to Consider:
Cameron Johnson - UNC ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
Corey Davis Jr. - HOU ($7,200 DK / $7,100 FD)
Bryce Brown - AUB ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD)
Ashton Hagans - UK ($4,900 DK / $5,200 FD)
J’Von McCormick - AUB ($3,600 DK / $3,900 FD)
Forwards
Zion Williamson - DUKE ($10,600 DK / $10,200 FD)
To put it simply, it’s tough NOT to play Zion Williamson when Duke is on the slate. He’s the best player in college basketball and his fantasy ceiling is in a class of its own with how large his shot volume is and how active he can be as a rebounder, defender and passer. Since Zion returned from his knee injury five games ago, he’s averaging 47.3 DK points with three different outings of at least 50 DK points. In Duke’s nail-biting win over UCF last round, the freshman scored 32 real points, grabbed 11 rebounds and put up 55+ DK points. His salary is also the lowest it’s been in a long time - and possibly all season - making a 6x return a real possibility even as the most expensive player on the slate. Because of his national popularity and insane DFS floor and ceiling, Williamson may be chalky and it may be smart to fade him in tournaments if he puts up a dud performance. Yet, if he has one of those do-everything Zion games we’ve grown accustomed to, you’ll be sorry you missed out.
Luke Maye - UNC ($8,200 DK / $8,300 FD)
This game has the highest-projected total on the Friday slate and although there will be tons of points scored by both sides, there equally will be tons of chances at rebounds with how many shots will be going up on both ends. This plays right into Maye’s strengths as the best rebounder left in the tournament and a nightly double-double threat. The UNC senior is averaging a double-double on the year (14.9 points and 10.6 boards) and he’s grabbed 12.9 rebounds per game over the last ten outings - including 14 rebounds in a monster performance vs. Minnesota in the Round-of-32 to go along with 20 points scored and 38 DK points. Meanwhile, Auburn is very poor on the defensive glass (19th-worst this year out of 353 rated teams by KenPom) and not much better on the offensive end during conference play. Maye should grab tons of missed shots on both ends with the opportunity for put-backs on offense and turning into the fast-break catalyst on defense. If you’re fading Cassius Winston and Tremont Waters at the top-end of the guard position, you could use that salary to pay up for multiple forwards - and Maye should be in that consideration as he’s averaging 39 DK points over his last ten games and has a great matchup.
Cam Reddish - DUKE ($6,200 DK / $6,300 FD)
Despite a mostly pedestrian season taking a backseat to Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Tre Jones, Duke’s “other” freshman could play a pivotal role on Friday for the Blue Devils. Their opponent, Virginia Tech, has allowed the country’s 2nd-highest percentage of opposing points from three-point range (42.5%) and Reddish is his team’s best spot-up shooter from the perimeter. The 6’8” wing player only shot 31% from three during conference play, but he’s nailed 5-of-10 from deep over the tournament’s first two rounds and put up at least 12 real points and 24 DK points in both games. Reddish has struggled to consistently score this year as Williamson and Barrett regularly dominate the usage and shot volume, but the talent is definitely there for the former McDonald’s All-American and future NBA lottery pick. During a six-game stretch back in February, we saw him hit at least four three-pointers in five of those games - four of which came when Williamson was still healthy. When Duke lost to the Hokies on Feb. 26, Reddish hit 3-of-6 from deep and put up 25 DK points (Zion was not playing in that one).
Aaron Henry - MSU ($4,600 DK / $4,800 FD)
Many people may have jumped off Henry after he put up just 12.75 DK points against Bradley in the first round and had the infamous run-in with Tom Izzo, but he bounced back for 24+ DK points vs. Minnesota in the Round-of-32 and remains a nice source of value yet again on Friday. The freshman is playing 30+ minutes in Michigan State’s core lineup and while he’s not a volume-scorer or shooter, Henry grabs enough rebounds and contributes in plenty of other stats to to return 4x or 5x value at this sub-5k price. With Kyle Ahrens (ankle) still out and Nick Ward (hand) slowly making his way back, Henry is playing an important role for the Spartans as one of their better on-ball defenders whose 6’6” frame can switch between guarding forwards in the post and guards on the perimeter. His versatility will be crucial against an athletic LSU team - keeping his minutes safe with plenty of opportunities to fill up the stat sheet in a back-and-forth, competitive game. Henry is a safe play in all formats right now as long as his salary remains below $5,000.
Other Forwards to Consider:
RJ Barrett - DUKE ($10,200 DK / $9,500 FD)
Chuma Okeke - AUB ($7,300 DK / $7,600 FD)
Reid Travis - UK ($6,000 DK / $6,100 FD)
Garrison Brooks - UNC ($4,700 DK / $5,000 FD)
Fabian White Jr. - HOU ($4,200 DK / $4,400 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Cassius Winston, MSU - $8,800
G: Skylar Mays, LSU - $6,100
G: Cameron Johnson, UNC - $7,800
F: Luke Maye, UNC - $8,200
F: Cam Reddish, DUKE - $6,200
F: Aaron Henry, MSU - $4,600
U: Jemarl Baker, UK - $3,000
U: Ashton Hagans, UK - $4,900
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Coby White, UNC - $7,400
G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $5,200
G: Corey Davis, HOU - $7,100
G: Jemarl Baker, UK - $3,200
F: Zion Williamson, DUKE - $10,200
F: Chuma Okeke, AUB - $7,600
F: Aaron Henry, MSU - $4,800
U: Fabian White, HOU - $4,400