Whether you predicted it or not in your brackets, we’re getting mostly chalk in the Sweet 16 this week. While the lack of upsets in the first two rounds may upset some, DFS CBB players should be rejoicing because we get some tasty matchups this week which should make following your lineups a lot more fun.

You’ll notice below in our teams to target/fade that the two earlier games on Thursday include the highest-scoring matchups and best offenses on the slate - while the latter two games should be more low-scoring with defensive teams taking center stage. We definitely want to have more exposure to the Florida State-Gonzaga and Purdue-Tennessee tilts with both games expected to have close to 150 total points scored between them.

DraftKings and FanDuel both have all four games on their slates with the earliest matchup tipping at 7:09 pm ET.

As we’ve done for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, we will point out the teams on this slate who are projected to score the most (and least) amount points of all eight teams in action (according to KenPom). That’s where you should generally start your focus when it comes to lineup-building. Then, we’ll outline the top cash and GPP plays to lock into your lineups for the slate.

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!

 

Teams to Target:

  • GONZAGA - 79 Implied Points vs. Florida State (7:09 pm ET)

  • PURDUE - 75 Implied Points vs. Tennessee (7:29 pm ET)

  • TENNESSEE - 74 Implied Points vs. Purdue (7:29 pm ET)

 

Teams to Fade:

  • OREGON - 54 Implied Points vs. Virginia (9:59 pm ET)

  • TEXAS TECH - 61 Implied Points vs. Michigan (9:39 pm ET)

  • MICHIGAN - 62 Implied Points vs. Texas Tech (9:39 pm ET)

 

Guards

Carsen Edwards - PUR ($9,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Edwards was already one of the top scorers in college basketball before the tournament began - and his performance over the first two rounds makes him a top play in this Sweet 16 matchup vs. Tennessee. The Purdue point guard exploded for 42 points scored and 53.5 DK points in Saturday’s win over Villanova, and also put up 45+ DK points and 26 points scored in the opening round victory vs. Old Dominion. KenPom predicts this Thursday’s game against the Vols to have the second-most total points scored (149) with the teams separated by only one point - a nice setup for Edwards as the clear-cut best player on his team in this type of back-and-forth, high-scoring contest. Edwards’ willingness (and efficiency) to shoot from the perimeter also matches up well vs. a Tennessee defense that is prone to giving up the three-pointer. The junior went 13-for-28 (46.4%) from deep in the first two rounds, including nine made three-pointers to anchor the win over ‘Nova. Meanwhile, Tennessee allowed its first two opponents - Colgate and Iowa - to go 22-for-50 (44%) from three-point range. Edwards can score in a multitude of ways, but if he has the three-pointer safely at his disposal, his ceiling is pretty high - just like we saw against the defending champs.

Lamonte Turner - TENN ($5,800 DK / $6,000 FD)

Turner usually gets overshadowed by Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone on this talented, balanced, Tennessee team - but Turner’s been very productive over the tournament’s first two rounds. The junior put up 31.5 and 28 DK points vs. Colgate and Iowa, respectively, as he was looked upon for some clutch buckets down the stretch to help the Vols get to the Sweet 16. Despite being on a team with tons of playmakers, Turner has not only seen a high shot volume over the first two rounds (at least 12 shot attempts in each game) but he also contributes in plenty of other stat categories with eight total rebounds, nine total assists and three steals across both outings. In what will be a high-scoring, tightly contested matchup with Purdue, we can expect Turner’s fantasy floor to remain fairly high as he’ll have plenty of chances to grab boards, dish out assists and score on his own - especially if Purdue make it a priority to stop Williams, Schofield and Bone.

Terance Mann - FSU ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

Mann had been inconsistent for much of this season, but he - along with center Mfiondu Kabengele - has anchored Florida State’s Sweet 16 run with two dominant performances in the opening rounds. The senior wing player put up at least 18 points scored, eight rebounds and 34 DK points in each game. Those numbers are notably up from his season-long averages, but his increased offensive usage and aggressiveness on the boards is definitely encouraging on a Seminoles team that usually runs a deep rotation. Florida State will likely need Mann’s playmaking ability and willingness to drive to the rim even more against Gonzaga, who have a few talented bigs who could cause some trouble for Kabengele in the paint. On DraftKings, Mann can be used pretty safely in cash - yet his FanDuel price restricts his exposure to GPP’s only.

Charles Matthews - MICH ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD)

As we mentioned earlier, we want to avoid this Michigan-Texas Tech matchup overall as it features the top two defenses in the country and will likely be low-scoring - but Matthews will be hard to ignore considering his performance so far in the tournament. Despite struggling in the Big Ten tourney and recently returning from an ankle injury, Matthews was arguably Michigan’s best player in easy wins over the first two rounds. The senior put up 37.5 DK points, 22 points scored and 10 rebounds against Montana in the first-round, then followed that up with nearly 27 DK points vs. Florida with a balanced state line of nine points scored, seven boards, two blocks and two steals. His production in that game - also a low-scoring one in Michigan’s favor - can be a good measure of what he can do against Texas Tech on Thursday (albeit against a tougher defense). Matthews seems to be out his offensive slump and should play a huge role on both ends as he’ll likely be tasked with guarding Red Raiders’ stud Jarrett Culver.

Ryan Cline - PUR ($5,400 DK / $5,500 FD)

We mentioned above with Carsen Edwards how Tennessee can be susceptible to opposing three-point shooters - and Cline was Purdue’s best deep-ball threat during the regular season. The senior made 40.6% of his three’s overall and was even better during conference play, hitting 43.8% from the perimeter. Cline has carried that success (and high volume) into the NCAA Tournament as he recently went 4-for-8 from three-point range in the second-round win over Villanova, and he’s shot 19 total three-pointers across both opening round games. Although he only made one of those in the first-round vs. Old Dominion, he still contributed seven rebounds and four assists for nearly 20 DK points. If Purdue is to pull the upset of Tennessee on Thursday, it’ll have to be from three-point range as the Vols boast elite size and rim-protecting ability in the paint but have the tendency to allow points from deep - Colgate and Iowa combined to go 22-for-50 (44%) from three last weekend.

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Jarrett Culver - TTU ($9,300 DK / $8,600 FD)

  • Payton Pritchard - ORE ($7,400 DK / $7,800 FD)

  • Zach Norvell Jr. - GONZ ($7,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

  • Jordan Bowden - TENN ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

  • Kihei Clark - UVA ($4,300 DK / $4,100 FD)

 

Forwards

Brandon Clarke - GONZ ($9,500 DK / $9,200 FD)

You may have heard one particular Brandon Clarke stat lately, but if not - here it is again: In his 35 games this season, Clarke has more blocked shots (107) than missed field goals (105). That perfect marriage of offensive and defensive efficiency was on full display in Gonzaga’s second-round win over Baylor as the 6’8” junior put up a whopping 68 DK points thanks to a complete box score of 36 points scored, eight rebounds, three assists, five blocks and two steals. Clarke was dominant on both ends of the court and he lived up to that earlier stat - missing just three of his 18 shot attempts while swatting five on the defensive end. Although Thursday presents a much tougher matchup vs. the elite size and length of Florida State, Clarke’s efficiency will be needed yet again with Rui Hachimura struggling so far in the Tournament. Gonzaga leaned on Clarke in the paint vs. Baylor, and they’ll likely do so again in this game. We can’t reasonably expect 60+ fantasy points again - but Clarke has averaged 40.3 DK points over his last ten games as he contributes in nearly every stat category each time out.

Mfiondu Kabengele - FSU ($5,900 DK / $6,400 FD)

Kabengele is the rare college basketball player who comes off the bench but is the best player on his team - he actually leads Florida State in scoring, offensive usage and shot volume despite not starting a game this season. The year-long issue with Kabengele has been the up-and-down playing time with how deep the Seminoles’ rotation is - but that’s been a non-factor for his DFS value so far in the NCAA Tournament. Over the first two rounds, the 6’10” sophomore was FSU’s go-to scorer as he put up at least 21 real points and 37 DK points in both outings. Now, the matchup on Thursday is definitely a tougher one than Vermont and Murray State were in the opening rounds - Gonzaga boasts two talented big man (Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura) who could cause him trouble in the paint. Still, with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line, we can expect Kabengele to get a ton of touches on offense and continue his high shot volume as Florida State’s best chance at the upset.

Mamadi Diakite - UVA ($4,600 DK / $5,000 FD)

For the most part, we want to stay away from this Virginia-Oregon game for DFS purposes because it’ll likely be the lowest-scoring matchup on the slate - but Diakite presents some nice value at the forward position so that you can fit in two or three higher-priced players. The junior moved into Virginia’s starting rotation against Oklahoma in the second round because his athleticism matched up better with Sooners forward Kristian Doolittle. He took advantage of the extended playing time as he put up 32+ DK points with 14 points scored, nine rebounds, three blocks and a steal in 28 minutes. Although it was only his second start in the last month-and-a-half, we could see Diakite get increased minutes again vs. Oregon as the Ducks’ Kenny Wooten also warrants an athletic body to guard on both ends. Virginia’s other bigs (Jack Salt and Jay Huff) just don’t have that athleticism to match up with Wooten. Plus, we’ve seen Diakite get the majority of minutes at the center position over the first two rounds while Huff and Salt have seemingly been phased out. Diakite put up at least 14 points scored and nine boards against both Gardner-Webb and Oklahoma - and he played at least 27 minutes in each outing while the remaining playing time was divvied up between Salt and Huff.

Raiquan Gray - FSU ($3,800 DK / $4,200 FD)

With Phil Cofer expected out again on Thursday (he’s been away from the team following his father’s death), Gray should see a third straight start and continue to have a bigger role in the Florida State rotation. In the first two rounds, Gray moved into the starting rotation for just the second and third time this season, played at least 21 minutes each time out and put up 18.75 and 26.75 DK points vs. Vermont and Murray State, respectively. The 6’8” freshman had played sparingly off the bench for much of the year, but Cofer’s absence has opened the door for extended playing time. He should see another 20+ minutes against Gonzaga as his size will be important in stopping Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura in the paint - especially if Mfiondu Kabengele and/or Christ Koumadje get into foul trouble or need a breather. If we’re getting 15-20 DFS points at least at this cheap price tag, Gray should be locked into your cash lineups as one of the best value plays on the slate.

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Grant Williams - TENN ($9,400 DK / $9,100 FD)

  • Jon Teske - MICH ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD)

  • Kenny Wooten - ORE ($5,300 DK / $5,100 FD)

  • Grady Eifert - PUR ($5,000 DK / $5,100 FD)

  • Corey Kispert - GONZ ($4,300 DK / $4,900 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Carsen Edwards, PUR - $9,200

G: Lamonte Turner, TENN - $5,800

G: Terance Mann, FSU - $5,600

F: Brandon Clarke, GONZ - $9,500

F: Mamadi Diakite, UVA - $4,600

F: Raiquan Gray, FSU - $3,800

U: Charles Matthews, MICH - $5,500

U: Mfiondu Kabengele, FSU - $5,900

 

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Carsen Edwards, PUR - $8,700

G: Lamonte Turner, TENN - $6,000

G: Ryan Cline, PUR - $5,500

G: Charles Matthews, MICH - $6,100

F: Grant Williams, TENN - $9,100

F: Raiquan Gray, FSU - $4,200

F: Mamadi Diakite, UVA - $5,000

U: Jordan Bowden, TENN - $5,200