Welcome back FA Nation to another CBB DFS Playbook! Admittedly, tonight’s slate is an ugly one with tons of low-scoring matchups and a smaller number of top-tier talent to build lineups from. Yet, that’s why we’re here - to find the diamonds in the rough and help you take home those cash games and GPP’s.

Tipping off at 7 pm ET, DraftKings has a 12-game main slate while FanDuel has an 10-gamer - the Penn State-Rutgers and Oregon State-Washington matchups are the outliers on DK. Only one Top 25 team is in action (LSU) and even they have a tough matchup. Still, a couple key injuries to Iowa State and Ohio State have opened up some value for us.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!

Games To Target:

Iowa State @ West Virginia - 7 pm ET (ISU -8 / 150 Implied Total)

Georgetown @ DePaul - 8:30 pm ET (DEP -1 / 159 Implied Total)

Games To Fade:

Penn State @ Rutgers - 7 pm ET (PSU -1 / 135 Implied Total) - DK ONLY

Ohio State @ Northwestern - 9 pm ET (OSU -1 / 123 Implied Total)

Oregon State @ Washington - 10 pm ET (WASH -12 / 132 Implied Total)

Guards

Max Strus - DEP ($8,400 DK / $8,200 FD) - The top end of the guard position isn’t very attractive today, but Strus may be the safest among the expensive options when you consider what he’s done lately offensively. The senior is coming off a massive performance last game with 43 real points and 53 DK points - and he’s put up at least 32 DK points in four straight. This recent production should make Strus one of the more popular plays today, but it’s hard to fade him even at this price because of the hot streak he’s on. Just last week vs. this same Georgetown team, he scored 25 real points on 10-of-15 shooting with 34+ DK points. Although the Hoyas defend the three-point line well, Strus has been pretty efficient from deep with a large shot volume lately. Over his last four games, he’s shooting 46.8% from three-point range (15-for-32) including a whopping six made three’s last time out vs. St John’s. With DePaul’s season all but over, it’s clear Strus has taken upon it himself to shoot often as his college career comes to a close - keeping his fantasy floor high with the increase in scoring opportunity.  

Lindell Wigginton - ISU ($6,300 DK / $5,700 FD) - With Iowa State’s starting point guard Nick Weiler-Babb doubtful tonight and Marial Shayok out with a foot injury, Wigginton should move into the starting rotation and see a huge increase in shot volume and usage on offense. Wigginton has been a prolific scorer off the bench for much of this season - averaging 15 real points over the last ten games - and now his scoring opportunities will increase a lot in extended minutes with Weiler-Babb and Shayok out. During conference play this year, the sophomore was essentially the Cyclones’ sixth-man who could provide instant offense playing alongside the starters - his 26.3% offensive usage in Big 12 games leads the team and is 5th in the conference. Wigginton’s skill-set also matches up well vs. a West Virginia defense that does not defend the perimeter well as he’s one of Iowa State’s better three-point shooters. Plus, he put up 34.5 DK points against the Mountaineers back in January with a whopping 28 real points. The Weiler-Babb news was significant, but the Shayok injury this morning means Wigginton and the other healthy Iowa State guards get a big boost tonight.

Jalen Hudson - UF ($4,900 DK / $4,800 FD) - The senior was expected to be one of the better guards in the SEC coming into the year but he’s struggled overall and even lost his starting job just five games into the season. Yet during conference play, Hudson has found an offensive rhythm off the bench and he even leads the team in shot volume (28.6%) when he’s on the court - which is still 25-30 minutes per game as Florida’s first guy off the bench. He’s actually been more productive than the man who stole his starting job away, Noah Locke - who is the same price on DraftKings. Hudson has returned 4x value or better at his current DK price in three of the last four games - including 23+ DK points on Feb. 20 vs. LSU. This rematch today plays into Hudson’s favor as he likes to shoot the three-pointer and LSU is prone to play fast on offense and don’t get back to defend the perimeter well in transition. This tendency should allow Hudson to get a fair share of shot attempts from deep like he did in the first meeting - going 3-for-7 from three-point range.

Jordan McCabe - WVU ($3,800 DK / $5,200 FD) - DraftKings has strangely kept McCabe’s salary low despite his slate-breaking production over the last three games - he should be valued in the 5k range that FanDuel has him. The freshman McCabe has really taken advantage of extended playing time after having moved into the starting lineup with Brandon Knapper out nursing a neck injury lately. Although Knapper returned over the weekend, McCabe still got the start and put up 31+ DK points with 18 real points scored. It was actually his third straight game of at least 26 DK points and 30 minutes played (getting the start each outing). Now, we can’t expect any type of repeat of the 60 fantasy points he put up two games ago as he played 50 minutes in the triple-overtime win, but it’s encouraging the shot volume did not decrease much even with Knapper back. With West Virginia’s season basically over outside of a miracle run in the Big 12 tournament, it’s clear McCabe and fellow guard Jermaine Haley have been given the green light to run the offense and put up shots as they come. Keep in mind that he should be extremely chalky on DraftKings at that cheap price tag.

Other Guards to Consider:

Paul Pritchard - ORE ($7,200 DK ONLY)

Talen Horton-Tucker - ISU ($7,100 DK / $7,200 FD)

Mitch Ballock - CRE ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

Prentiss Hubb - ND ($5,500 DK / $5,500 FD)

Jermaine Haley - WVU ($4,500 DK / $5,900 FD)

Forwards

Elijah Thomas - CLEM ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) - Although this matchup vs. Notre Dame will likely be low-scoring, Thomas has still been able to produce in these slower-paced games Clemson usually plays. In the past three games, the senior center has two double-doubles, is averaging 37+ DK points and put up at least 12 points, eight rebounds, a block, a steal and 33 DK points in each of those outings. Thomas should be busy on the boards again today with a team-leading 36% combined rebounding rate and the conference’s third-best defensive rebounding rate - which matches up well against Notre Dame, who’s among the worst ACC teams on the offensive boards. This slate is shaping up to be one where three higher-priced forwards could be the more optimal route to go - and Thomas should be at the top of your consideration as Clemson tries to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.

Martin Krampelj - CRE ($7,800 DK / $7,900 FD) - Considering Krampelj has performed like an 8k player over the past month-plus, he’s one of the safest forward plays on this slate with a price lower than that mark on both sites. Krampelj is coming off consecutive outings of 39.5 and 32.5 DK points vs. Georgetown and Marquette, respectively, and he’s had four other games in the last ten of at least 34 DK points. The 6’9” junior center also put up 16 real points, nine rebounds and a block for 29 DK points when he faced Providence back in December. With every Bluejay guard now back healthy, it’s been tough to predict which one will go off game-to-game - yet Krampelj has maintained a pretty high fantasy floor with his production in conference play. Plus, most of the advanced metrics back up what Krampelj has been doing lately. Against Big East opponents, his two-point shooting percentage is tops in the league while he boasts top 5 marks in defensive rebounding, fouls drawn and offensive rating.

Jaedon LeDee - OSU ($3,100 DK / $3,800 FD) - This past Saturday, LeDee became one of the best values all season when he entered the starting lineup in place of Kaleb Wesson and returned 24+ DK points at a minimum price tag. With Wesson already ruled out for tonight, LeDee should get a second straight start and play 20+ minutes just like he did over the weekend - and his salary really hasn’t gone up much. The 6’9” freshman hasn’t played much this season, but he’s a former ESPN Top 100 recruit who actually has a really high usage rate in the minimal minutes he’s gotten - his 26.2% offensive usage is second on the team behind only Kaleb Wesson. Against Purdue on Saturday, LeDee scored 16 points on 4-of-9 shooting and 8-of-11 free-throws - with three rebounds, an assist, a block and a steal thrown in. There is a slight risk for LeDee to get into foul trouble tonight trying to guard Dererk Pardon and Vic Law for Northwestern, but it’s probably worth the salary savings at this cheap price tag as it’ll allow you to pay up for some of the higher-priced players on the slate.

Zoran Talley Jr. - ISU ($3,000 DK / $3,300 FD) & George Conditt - ISU ($3,100 DK / $3,100 FD) - Everything changed for the Cyclones this morning when it was announced their leading scorer Marial Shayok would sit out with a foot injury. Iowa State was already expected to be without senior guard Nick Weiler-Babb in this one - and now Shayok’s absence will shake up the rotation and starting lineup even more. We’ll definitely need to monitor who the starters will be ahead of this 7 pm ET tip - but either Talley or Conditt could start and both should move into bigger roles tonight with Shayok out. Chris Williams, publisher of CycloneFanatic.com, said on Facebook Live this morning that Iowa State could opt to go with bigger lineups with Talley as a possible starter and/or Conditt playing 20+ minutes as well. Again, let’s look for the starting lineup announcement - but either could become a nice source of value tonight with Iowa State dealing with a couple injuries and Cameron Lard coming off a recent suspension.

Other Forwards to Consider:

Jessie Govan - GTWN ($9,500 DK / $8,300 FD)

Derek Culver - WVU ($7,700 DK / $7,300 FD)

Dererk Pardon - NW ($7,600 DK / $7,700 FD)

James Banks - GT ($7,100 DK / $7,500 FD)

Jaylen Butz - DEP ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Max Strus, DEP - $8,400

G: Lindell Wigginton, ISU - $6,300

G: Jordan McCabe, WVU - $3,800

F: Martin Krampelj, CRE - $7,800

F: Elijah Thomas, CLEM - $8,000

F: Jaedon LeDee, OSU - $3,100

U: Jalen Hudson, UF - $4,900

U: Derek Culver, WVU - $7,700

 

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Max Strus, DEP - $8,200

G: Lindell Wigginton, ISU - $5,700

G: Prentiss Hubb, ND - $5,500

G: Jalen Hudson, UF - $4,800

F: Martin Krampelj, CRE - $7,900

F: Elijah Thomas, CLEM - $8,000

F: Jaedon LeDee, OSU - $3,800

U: Mitch Ballock, CRE - $6,100