After Saturday’s busy day of college hoops action, we have another Sunday slate of DFS CBB highlighted by a top 25 rematch between Michigan and Maryland.
FanDuel has a 9-game main slate while DraftKings broke theirs into separate early and late slates with seven games on each one. Because of the size of DK’s two slates and large number of games not available on FD, our “Example Lineup” below will just focus on FanDuel. Still, though, we’ll provide some plays you can target on each of DK’s early and late slates.
Unlike the mid-week slates, today’s matchups get started at 12 pm ET and extend all the way to the 8 pm ET tip of Arizona State-Oregon State. Building lineups with this schedule in mind can be tricky - especially on FD’s larger slate. On the one hand, you want some exposure to the “late-night hammer” game to give you an edge on other players’ lineups. Still, there’s plenty of studs and values in the earlier matchups that you want to lock in.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
St. John’s @ DePaul - 12 pm ET (STJN -2 / 153 Implied Total)
Creighton @ Marquette - 3 pm ET (MARQ -8 / 152 Implied Total)
Arizona State @ Oregon State - 8 pm ET (OSU -2 / 146 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Michigan @ Maryland - 3:45 pm ET (MICH -1 / 131 Implied Total)
Washington @ Stanford - 4 pm ET (WASH -3 / 133 Implied Total)
Boston College @ Georgia Tech - 6 pm ET (GT -3 / 131 Implied Total)
Guards
Markus Howard - MARQ ($9,600 DK / $8,600 FD) - Take one look at what Howard did the last time these two teams met - and he needs to considered as the top pay-up option today. In that January overtime matchup, Howard scored a whopping 53 real points with 10 made three-pointers and returned a slate-breaking 67 DK points. Now, we can’t realistically expect those eye-popping numbers this time around, but his fantasy floor and ceiling remain very high with the amount of usage and shot volume he sees. When he’s on the court - which is nearly the entire game - the junior owns the highest possession usage, shots share and fouls drawn rate in the conference with a top 10 assist rate and three-point percentage as well. Howard is averaging nearly 27 real points and 40 DK points per game over the last ten outings - eclipsing 30 real points and 40 DK points four different times. This Creighton-Marquette game will be one of the highest-scoring matchups on the slate and Howard is clearly the best player on both sides. Plus, he’s averaging more than eight DK points better at home than he does on the road.
Zavier Simpson - MICH ($7,100 DK / $7,600 FD) - Although this Michigan-Maryland game is one to avoid with a low expected point total, Simpson could still put up big numbers on the road. Maryland boasts two talented forwards in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith who both protect the rim well, but the way to attack the Terps’ defense this season has been largely from the perimeter through good guard play. Simpson excelled in this matchup earlier this month when he put up nearly 35 DK points with 12 points, eight assists, five rebounds and two steals. That game was Simpson’s first of three straight performances of 30+ DK points with Michigan needing to lean on him more to score and distribute vs. Big Ten teams who boast talented forwards like Maryland does. The junior point guard’s fantasy floor remains high game-in and game-out because of he dominates the ball-handling for the Wolverines and can easily dish out double-digit assists if his shot volume isn’t high.
Alterique Gilbert - CONN ($6,000 DK / $6,200 FD) - Gilbert can now be safely rostered as he finally re-entered UConn’s starting lineup on Thursday after coming off the bench for the two games following his return from a shoulder injury. In that last-second loss to Wichita State, the sophomore point guard had a team-high 18 points with four made three-pointers - and it’s become clear that he will be the main producer in the Huskies’ offense as long as Jalen Adams remains out. In his three games back since missing five this past month, Gilbert’s usage rate has led the team in each outing and he’s put up at least 16 shots in both of his last two games. What’s even more encouraging for Gilbert’s DFS value is the fact that Christian Vital remained on the bench for a second straight game - resulting in even higher usage for Gilbert running the offense.
Aaron Wiggins - UMD ($4,800 DK / $4,900 FD) - If you haven’t been following Maryland this season, Wiggins may be relatively unknown to the casual college basketball fan. Today - even in a tough matchup vs. Michigan - he has a chance to return 5x value like he did the last time these teams faced off in February. In that game, Wiggins scored 15 points with six rebounds, three assists and three made three-pointers - good for nearly 28 DK points. The freshman doesn’t start for the Terps, but he’s been their best player off the bench during conference play in his three-and-D role. His 43% from three-point range is sixth in the Big Ten and he’s been one of the better defenders in conference play, committing about two fouls per 40 minutes. Against Michigan in that previous matchup, Wiggins played extended minutes because Maryland needed his three-point shooting and excellent defense to have any chance as the Terps’ talented forwards (Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith) struggled in the paint with Michigan’s size.
Other Guards to Consider:
Ethan Thompson - OSU ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD)
Lamonte Bearden - WKU ($5,300 DK ONLY)
Dexter Dennis - WICH ($5,200 DK ONLY)
Curran Scott - TULSA ($4,400 DK ONLY)
Forwards
Martin Krampelj - CRE ($7,700 DK / $7,700 FD) - Although Marquette boasts a star in Markus Howard, the Golden Eagles’ defense is definitely targetable as they do not have much talent or size in the paint to stop opposing forwards. Krampelj took advantage of this matchup when these teams first faced off back in January - he put up 33 DK points with 19 points, eight rebounds and 13 made free-throws. The 6’9” junior has been able to post big numbers in conference play when he stays out of foul trouble - just as he did last game vs. Georgetown with 39.5 DK points, 22 real points and 10 boards. Plus, both Creighton and Marquette play at fast tempos - allowing for an increase in shot volume and rebound opportunity for Krampelj as the team’s clear-cut best rebounder with the second-best defensive rebounding rate in the Big East. Expect Krampelj to get a second-straight double-double with how many rebounds he can rack up as Marquette’s Howard will undoubtedly be firing off tons of shots from deep.
Paul Reed - DPU ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD) - After three straight games of inconsistent minutes and inefficient scoring, Reed bounced back in a big way last time out vs. Georgetown with 16 points, 12 rebounds and 41+ DK points. Today’s favorable matchup should help him stay on track and potentially return 5x value once again. St. John’s is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big East and usually runs under-sized, guard-heavy lineups. Meanwhile, the 6’9” Reed is the best defensive rebounder in the conference (with a top 5 offensive rebounding rate) and he dominated the Johnnies when these teams faced off back in January - he put up 37 DK points with 18 points and 10 boards. Reed’s salary remains below 7k on both sites likely because of his recent inconsistency, but the sophomore has six games of 32+ DK points in the last ten with three outings of at least 40.
Theo John - MARQ ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD) - You might be hesitant to roster a third player alongside Howard and Krampelj in this game, but don’t be scared to stack up and roll out John with more expected time on the court. The sophomore has seen inconsistent minutes lately, but he tends to get more playing time when Marquette faces better opposing forwards - like Creighton’s Krampelj. When these teams last played, John had 22 DK points with only five real points because of his presence in the paint - six rebounds and four blocks. Marquette may give John extended run not only because he can match up with Krampelj, but also due to his rebounding and blocking ability. His defensive rebounding is sixth in the conference while his block rate is the best in the Big East. On the other side, Creighton is one of the worst teams when it comes to offensive rebounding teams and getting their shots blocked. At an affordable price on both sites, John has the potential to return 5x value if he gets the extended run as expected.
De’Quon Lake - ASU ($4,100 DK / $3,900 FD) - Although he moved back to the bench last time out after getting a spot start two games ago (apparently for Senior Night), Lake has played 20 minutes in back-to-back outings and could continue to get extended run tonight. Yes the 20 minutes in those games is noticeably more playing time than he was getting during conference play (about 12 minutes per game over the last ten games), but a matchup vs. Oregon State’s talented bigs should mean more action for the 6’10” Lake. OSU’s Tres Tinkle and Kylor Kelley both warrant size and rebounding ability from opposing teams - and Lake can provide that more so than Arizona State’s other bigs in Romello White or Taeshon Cherry. When he’s on the floor, Lake is the team’s best shot-blocker and is second in combined rebounding percentage to only Zylan Cheatham. Again, ASU will likely need Lake’s size down low to contain Tinkle and Kelley. Over these past two games in increased minutes, the senior showed he can do just that with 11 rebounds and five blocks across both games and at least 19 DK points in each. On a slate with minimal value plays at both forward and guard, Lake could give you the 4x or 5x return you’re looking for.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Dererk Pardon - NW (7,300 DK / $7,400 FD)
Anthony Duruji - LATECH ($6,400 DK ONLY)
Josh Sharma - STAN ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD)
Kristian Sjolund - GT ($3,000 DK / $3,900 FD)
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Zavier Simpson, MICH - $7,600
G: Alterique Gilbert, CONN - $6,200
G: Ethan Thompson, OSU - $7,300
G: Aaron Wiggins, UMD - $4,900
F: Paul Reed, DPU - $6,800
F: Martin Krampelj, CRE - $7,700
F: De’Quon Lake, ASU - $3,900
U: Theo John, MARQ - $5,500