After Saturday’s busy day of college hoops action, we have another Sunday slate of DFS CBB highlighted by a top 10 rivalry matchup between Michigan State and Michigan.
FanDuel has a 7-game slate while DraftKings broke theirs into early and late slates with four games apiece on each one. Note that DK’s early slate includes the SMU-UCF matchup at 12 pm ET while FD has foregone that one and their slate is thus pushed back to 1:30 pm ET.
Unlike the mid-week slates, today’s matchups get started at 12 pm ET and extend all the way to the 8 pm ET tip of Stanford-Arizona. Building lineups with this schedule in mind can be tricky - especially on FD’s larger slate. On the one hand, you want some exposure to the “late-night hammer” game to give you an edge on other players’ lineups. Still, that game has a low implied total of points while some of the earlier games are more attractive DFS-wise.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
California @ Arizona State - 6 pm ET (ASU -19 / 153 Implied Total)
Wake Forest @ North Carolina State - 6 pm ET (NCST -16 / 150 Implied Total)
Stanford @ Arizona - 8 pm ET (ARIZ -5 / 137 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
SMU @ UCF - 12 pm ET (UCF -8 / 136 Implied Total) - DK ONLY
Michigan State @ Michigan - 3:45 pm ET (MICH -2 / 132 Implied Total)
Minnesota @ Rutgers - 6:30 pm ET (RUT -1 / 137 Implied Total)
Guards
Jarron Cumberland - CIN ($9,200 DK / $8,200 FD) - Today’s top-tier of guards is not as deep as other slates, but Cumberland needs to be in the conversation with one of the highest fantasy floors at the position. The junior’s do-everything role on offense allows him to consistently post 30-40 DK points on a daily basis - his possession usage, shot volume, assist rate and fouls drawn rate all lead the team by far and are top 6 marks in the AAC. Over the last ten games, Cumberland is averaging 39.6 DK points, 23 real points, 4.2 assists and 5.9 rebounds - his production in every state category allows you to plug-and-play with a safe expectation. Case in point: Last time out vs. UCF, he shot poorly (3-for-13 from the field) and scored just 11 real points but he returned 33+ DK points because of his contribution in every other stat category. Cincinnati plays very slow, but this is a pace-up matchup for Cumberland as Connecticut plays at a top-80 tempo in the nation. No matter the opponent, though, his ability to get to the foul line, knock down three-pointers, assist, rebound and shoot 15-20 times keeps his fantasy floor consistently high with the upside to reach 40+ DK points if he’s scoring 25+ real points - a real possibility in what should be a higher-scoring game than what Cincy is used to.
Christian Vital - CONN ($7,800 DK / $7,600 FD) - With Jalen Adams out the last 4+ games, it’s been Vital who’s become UConn’s best scorer with a close-to-guaranteed shot volume. Over the previous five games, Vital has put up double-digit shot attempts with at least six three-point attempts in each outing. He should also benefit from Huskies’ point guard Alterique Gilbert back healthy, allowing Vital to play more off-the-ball with better shot attempts to make him more efficient with his opportunities. That’s the offensive role he’s more familiar with and it’s what allowed him to average 34.5 DK points over the last ten games. In Vital’s previous meeting against Cincy this season, he put up 36 DK points with 16 real points, 10 boards and four made three-pointers.
Collin Gillespie - NOVA ($5,900 DK / $5,800 FD) - We never want to put too much stock in previous matchups, but Gillespie’s last game vs. Xavier this season could be a sign of things to come today. In that one last month, Gillespie went 6-for-10 from three-point range and put up 31.8 DK points. Xavier’s defense prides itself in talented forwards and rim-protectors while funneling opposing scoring to the perimeter and the three-pointer. This is why Gillespie dominated in extended shot volume the last time, and it’s why he should see similar production today. The sophomore is averaging nearly eight three-point attempts per game over the last ten outings and he’s Villanova’s best deep threat. Expect Gillespie to be active again from beyond the arc today with the upside for 30+ DK points if he’s hitting his shots.
Cormac Ryan - STAN ($4,700 DK / $4,600 FD) - One of today’s key injuries to monitor will be the status of Stanford stud KZ Okpala. When he was scratched before last game, it was Ryan who slotted into the starting lineup and saw 33 minutes and 10 shot attempts - both markedly more than he’s been getting after returning from an ankle injury earlier this month. Unfortunately this is the latest game on the slate, but Ryan is still a viable play at his salary if Okpala plays in a limited role because his shot volume and efficiency are starting to increase as he gets back into playing shape. After missing four games with that ankle injury, Ryan struggled shooting the ball in limited attempts - yet he still threw up eight and seven three-pointers in the last two games, respectively. Although he made just one of those in the last outing, the freshman hit 5-of-8 from deep two games ago and put up 37 DK points. This is a glimpse of what Ryan can provide when he’s hitting his three’s - and the increased shot volume is certainly a welcome sight as the opportunity is there.
Other Guards to Consider:
Phil Booth - NOVA ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD)
Jahmal McMurray - SMU ($6,600 DK ONLY)
Braxton Beverly - NCST ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD)
Devonaire Doutrive - ARIZ ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD)
Forwards
Zylan Cheatham - ASU ($8,600 DK / $8,100 FD) - In a forward position lacking elite talent at the top, Cheatham stands out on this slate at a very affordable price point for the value he can provide. People may be off Cheatham after a dud performance vs. Stanford last time out, but the Arizona State big has very favorable matchup today and has been playing lights out lately. California is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Pac-12 while Cheatham owns an elite defensive rebounding rate (2nd in the conference) and had his way against this same Cal team in their last meeting - 31 DK points with 17 real points and six rebounds. Cheatham has also averaged 34 DK points over the last ten games with three different outings of at least 42 DK points. You’ll likely have to choose between Cheatham and Minnesota’s Jordan Murphy ($9,700 DK / $8,700) atop the forward position today - but Murphy’s home/road splits are very discouraging while Cheatham has the better individual matchup at home.
Xavier Tillman - MSU ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) - With starting center Nick Ward out indefinitely, Tillman moved into the starting rotation last game and put up 38 DK points with 19 real points and 10 boards in 33 minutes. Tillman should continue to start and get extended minutes for the Spartans as Ward has no timetable to return with a hairline fracture in his hand. In a tough matchup vs. Michigan’s stout defense today, expect Michigan State to lean on Tillman and Kenny Goins ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) down low as Cassius Winston could have trouble being guarded by Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews. On the same note, Michigan defends the perimeter well with solid guard play and tends to funnel scoring to the paint and force opposing bigs to beat them. This sets up well for Tillman to get double-digit shot attempts and a double-double for a second straight game.
Ryan Luther - ARIZ ($5,900 DK / $6,400 FD) - Luther began the season as a regular starter, moved to the bench for a long stretch and is now firmly back in the starting lineup with Brandon Williams out. The 5th-year senior has not only started eight straight, but he’s quietly become Arizona’s best source of offense alongside fellow big man Chase Jeter. Luther’s scored in double-digits each of the last four games and has put up at least 32 DK points in three recent outings. What’s particularly attractive about Luther lately is the increased shot volume. Over the last ten games, he’s put up 10+ attempts and nearly six three-pointers in each outing while enough production in every other stat category to give him a relatively high floor.
Connor Vanover - CAL ($4,500 DK / $5,200 FD) - Vanover was an elite value play for us when his DK price was below $4,000 - but he’s still a decent bet to return value today because of his recent production in extended playing time. The 7’3” freshman has taken over Cal’s starting center role and he’s started the last four games. Plus, he he’s averaged 22.5 DK points over the last six games with a recent string of five straight performances of 20 DK points. Although he hasn’t scored as many real points in the last two outings, Vanover’s been able to be valuable because of his elite rebounding and blocking rates when he’s on the floor. Today, Vanover’s size will come in handy vs. an undersized Arizona State team whose tallest regular contributors stand at 6’8” - a seven-inch advantage in Vanover’s favor.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Jaylen Hoard - WAKE ($7,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Isaiah Mike - SMU ($7,300 DK ONLY)
Tyrique Jones - XAV ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)
Josh Sharma - STAN ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD)
Tyler Polley - CONN ($4,300 DK / $4,900 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings (EARLY):
G: Collin Gillespie, NOVA - $5,900
G: Jarron Cumberland, CIN - $9,200
G: Jahmal McMurray, SMU - $6,600
F: Xavier Tillman, MSU - $6,300
F: Isiaha Mike, SMU - $7,300
F: Saddiq Bey, NOVA - $5,600
U: Matt McQuaid, MSU - $4,800
U: Tyler Polley, CONN - $4,300
Example Lineup on DraftKings (LATE):
G: Braxton Beverly, NCST - $5,400
G: Cormac Ryan, STAN - $4,700
G: Remy Martin, ASU - $7,300
F: Ryan Luther, ARIZ - $5,900
F: Zylan Cheatham, ASU - $8,600
F: Connor Vanover, CAL - $4,500
U: Josh Sharma, STAN - $5,700
U: Jaylen Hoard, WAKE - $7,900
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Collin Gillespie, NOVA - $5,800
G: Christian Vital, CONN - $7,600
G: Devonaire Doutrive, ARIZ - $5,500
G: Cormac Ryan, STAN - $4,600
F: Zylan Cheatham, ASU - $8,100
F: Connor Vanover, CAL - $5,200
F: Xavier Tillman, MSU - $6,600
U: Ryan Luther, ARIZ - $6,400