Saturday college basketball is back with tons of meaningful conference matchups as we near March Madness!
The main slate today tips off at 12 pm ET with eight different Top 25 teams in action. FanDuel has a 10-game slate while DraftKings adds two matchups to their 12-gamer - the Penn State-Illinois and Georgetown-Creighton showdowns are the outliers.
One thing to keep in mind for these larger Saturday slates with bigger player pools than usual - the margin for error is a bit different than on the three or four-game tilts. There’s a larger top-tier of players than usual today - creating a tougher chance to cash. If you miss out on a stud who goes off, you can easily make back those points if you hit on a different top-tier player. BUT if your expensive players go bust, you could find yourself in a bigger hole than usual because the majority of entries likely had one of their own smash value.
This deeper player pool also stresses the importance of value plays. Due to the larger number of expensive options we want some exposure to, we need to find those cheap players who can return 4x or 5x value. Now, you can afford to have these plays to bust once in a while - but only if your studs have good games and you’re not trying to win the bigger GPP contests.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
Tennessee @ LSU - 12 pm ET (TENN -3 / 160 Implied Total)
Iowa State @ TCU - 2 pm ET (ISU -1 / 147 Implied Total)
Georgetown @ Creighton - 2:30 pm ET (CRE -6 / 160 Implied Total) - DK ONLY
Games To Fade:
Boston College @ Clemson - 12 pm ET (CLEM -9 / 135 Implied Total)
Virginia @ Louisville - 12 pm ET (UVA -5 / 123 Implied Total)
Georgia Tech @ Miami - 2 pm ET (MIA -6 / 128 Implied Total)
Guards
Markus Howard - MARQ ($9,800 DK / $8,900 FD) - On Wednesday, we suggested Howard as an interesting pivot play instead of Duke’s two-headed monster. We all know what happened to Zion Williamson - which led to a monster game from RJ Barrett - but Howard was definitely a great play in his own right, scoring 28 real points and 43.5 DK points. We’ve come to expect that type of production from the Marquette junior whenever he’s on the slate - and he should have no problem getting to 40+ DK points again today vs. Providence. Howard is averaging nearly 39 DK points over the last ten games and put up 41.3 DK points vs. this same Providence team a month ago with 24 real points, nine rebounds and three assists. His DFS floor and ceiling are both ridiculously high on a daily basis with a possession usage and shots share that are both tops in the Big East, and assist and fouls-drawn rates that are elite as well. Over the last six games, Howard took at least 20 FG attempts and at least eight three-pointers in five of those. His floor and ceiling remain that high because of how much he’s handling the ball with a green light to launch as many shots as he wants as Marquette’s clear-cut first scoring option.
Lamonte Turner - TENN ($5,800 DK / $5,500 FD) - Turner has been a bit inconsistent lately, but he has the upside for 40 DFS points if he gets hot shooting the ball - like he did twice in the past month. At this affordable price in a high-scoring game, he may actually be chalky today because of that upside with a solid floor - averaging 23 DK points over the last ten games. Turner is Tennessee’s best three-point shooter and could see a ton of looks today since point guard Jordan Bone has a tough individual matchup vs. LSU’s Tremont Waters and the Vols’ talented forwards could end up in foul trouble trying to defend LSU’s bigs. After coming off the bench to begin conference play, Turner has started the last eight games and is getting 30+ minutes nearly every game while contributing 7-9 rebounds/assists as well.
Kendric Davis - TCU ($5,000 DK / $4,700 FD) - Davis was an elite value for us when he strung together three straight games of 34+ DK points earlier this month. His price is starting to rise, but he can still smash today because the shot volume is there and he contributes in every other stat category as well. Davis entered the starting lineup the last two games with Kouat Noi out - and although Noi is expected to return today, Davis’ recent play should earn him starters’ minutes moving forward as he’s been TCU’s best player lately. One of Davis’ monster outings came against this same Iowa State team when he put up 36.25 DK points with 22 real points, two steals, four assists and three rebounds. The other going in Davis’ favor today is the fact that TCU point guard Alex Robinson is banged up and could be limited and/or rested today. The freshman Davis has benefited from Robinson taking a step back in terms of usage and shot volume over these past few games - this could be the case yet again.
Elijah Mitrou-Long - TEX ($4,300 DK / $3,700 FD) - One of the bigger college basketball news items to cross the wire this week was Texas’ starting point guard Kerwin Roach being suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. This opens up a ton of minutes for the Longhorns’ reserves as Roach was getting about 75% of the PG minutes. We’ll have to monitor the starting lineups ahead of this 12 pm ET tip, but Mitrou-Long is the logical next man up to take over that starting role. His minutes have been very inconsistent lately - five of the last seven games he logged less than 10 minutes off the bench - but the junior got 24 minutes on Saturday (his most in over a month) and even started eight straight games for Texas back in December/January. If Mitrou-Long starts today, lock him into your lineups with the amount of usage and playing time he should get - especially on FanDuel, where he’s extremely cheap since their prices came out before the Roach suspension news broke on Friday.
Other Guards to Consider:
Marial Shayok - ISU ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD)
Ty-Shon Alexander - CRE ($7,600 DK ONLY)
Jared Butler - BAY ($5,600 DK / $6,200 FD)
Maliek White - PROV ($4,400 DK / $4,600 FD)
Jared Hamilton - BC ($3,800 DK / $4,200 FD)
Forwards
PJ Washington - UK ($8,500 DK / $8,500 FD) - With Reid Travis (knee) out for at least two weeks, Kentucky has a large void to fill in its lineup - which should mean more responsibility for Washington down low vs. Auburn today. The Wildcats still have talented guards, but expect Washington to play a lion’s share of the power forward minutes with a ton of usage in the paint offensively. A year ago, it would be a lot to ask for him to take on this added role - but the sophomore has since retooled his game to become one of the best forwards in the SEC this season. When speaking Friday, coach John Calipari mentioned Washington would need to move inside more and get physical vs. Auburn as Kentucky’s reserve forwards EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards haven’t had the opportunity to prove themselves yet. Even when Travis was healthy, Washington has been a strong DFS play throughout conference play - averaging 35 DK points in the last ten games with at least 20 real points scored in seven of the last nine outings. Expect Washington to see a larger shot volume and possession usage than normal - both marks led the team heading into today - with the upside to exceed 40 DK points.
Kouat Noi - TCU ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD) - Noi has missed the last two games with an ankle injury but he’s apparently a “full-go” today after practicing this week, according to TCU head coach Jamie Dixon. As one of TCU’s go-to scorers in conference play, Noi had been averaging 16.4 real points and 26.4 DK points in his last ten games before the injury. When he faced Iowa State earlier this month, the sophomore put up 17 points, seven rebounds, one assist and one steal for 30.8 DK points and was one the main reasons the Horned Frogs pulled off the upset in a 92-83 thriller. Noi will certainly be a welcome sight back in TCU’s lineup as Iowa State runs guard-heavy lineups but the starters are all 6’4” or taller - which should keep the 6’7” Noi in for the majority game (if he’s presumably back to full strength) as one of TCU’s better defenders and its best three-point shooter.
EJ Montgomery - UK ($4,400 DK / $4,100 FD) & Nick Richards - UK ($3,700 DK / $3,700 FD) - The aforementioned Reid Travis injury has opened a lot of playing time alongside PJ Washington for Kentucky’s second big - whomever that may be today. It remains to be seen which of Montgomery and Richards will get the start and the extended minutes, but either could smash value at cheap prices on both sites. Montgomery (a 6’10” freshman) and Richards (a 6’11” sophomore) have both seen limited playing time this season as the backups to Travis and Washington - and it’s really a coin-flip at this point as to which would benefit the most from their teammate being out. In an interview Friday, head coach John Calipari didn’t tip his hand as to which of his young forwards would see more time and it could be a simple “hot-hand” approach with Washington dominating usage in the paint. Still, Auburn has the size inside with decent rebounders to force Cal to play both Montgomery and Richards a good amount today. Check out Kentucky’s starting lineup before locking one of them in - but each are just GPP plays even at discounted salaries because we just don’t know how the rotation will shake out yet.
Kristian Sjolund - GT ($3,000 DK / $4,000 FD) - We suggested Sjolund as a value play on Wednesday and he was nearly a smash play after he scored nine first-half points - but an abysmal second half brought his DK value to just 8.5 points by the end of the night. Yet, we’re going back to the well tonight with a minimum DraftKings price and a FanDuel salary that’s definitely affordable for the 5x upside he brings. The freshman had played sparingly this season off the bench, but he’s gotten 25+ minutes in each of the last three games and has now started the last two outings. Sjolund responded to the extended playing time with back-to-back performances of 20+ DK points before Wednesday’s game and will likely see a third straight start today. Sjolund should continue to see the floor like he has this past week because he gives Georgia Tech a different dimension to its offense as a three-point shooter who can stretch the floor to give James Banks more room in the paint. The 6’7” Norwegian has been getting the green-light from deep, launching seven three-pointers in each of the last three games. For such a cheap price on both sites, you can’t get better value if he continues this shot volume and playing time.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Jessie Govan - GTWN ($9,200 DK ONLY)
Elijah Thomas - CLEM ($7,800 DK / $7,200 FD)
James Banks - GT ($7,200 DK / $7,900 FD)
Kristian Doolittle - OU ($6,200 DK / $6,700 FD)
Nate Watson - PROV ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Elijah Mitrou-Long, TEX - $4,300
G: Markus Howard, MARQ - $9,800
G: Kendric Davis, TCU - $5,000
F: PJ Washington, UK - $8,500
F: Kristian Sjolund, GT - $3,000
F: Nate Watson, PROV - $5,400
U: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $6,200
U: Ty-Shon Alexander, CRE - $7,600
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Elijah Mitrou-Long, TEX - $3,700
G: Markus Howard, MARQ - $8,900
G: Marial Shayok, ISU - $8,000
G: Lamonte Turner, TENN - $5,500
F: PJ Washington, UK - $8,500
F: Kristian Sjolund, GT - $4,000
F: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $6,700
U: Kendric Davis, TCU - $4,700