We’re back to the mid-week DFS College Basketball grind! The time is NOW to build your bankroll and get acclimated to rotations and DFS lineup strategies with the larger March Madness contests right around the corner.

As usual, we have a bigger slate tonight on both sites with the first games tipping at 7 pm ET. DraftKings has a 12-game slate while FanDuel includes just nine of those matchups. The outlier games specific to DK are: Pittsburgh-Boston College, Buffalo-Akron and Georgia-Texas A&M.

One thing to keep in mind for these larger weekday slates with bigger player pools than usual - the margin for error is a bit different than on the three or four-game tilts. There’s a larger top-tier of players than usual today - creating a tougher chance to cash. If you miss out on a stud who goes off, you can easily make back those points if you hit on a different top-tier player. BUT if your expensive players go bust, you could find yourself in a bigger hole than usual because the majority of entries likely had one of their own smash value.

This deeper player pool also stresses the importance of value plays. Due to the larger number of expensive options we want some exposure to, we need to find those cheap players who can return 4x or 5x value. Now, you can afford to have these plays to bust once in a while - but only if your studs have good games and you’re not trying to win the bigger GPP contests.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

 

Games To Target:

Marquette @ DePaul - 8 pm ET (MARQ -4 / 148 Implied Total)

Duke @ Louisville - 9 pm ET (DUKE -6 / 152 Implied Total)

Alabama @ Mississippi State - 9 pm ET (MSST -7 / 149 Implied Total)

 

Games To Fade:

Michigan State @ Wisconsin - 7 pm ET (WISC -1 / 131 Implied Total)

Michigan @ Penn State - 8:30 pm ET (MICH -8 / 124 Implied Total)

Kansas State @ Texas - 9 pm ET (TEX -4 / 120 Implied Total)


Guards

Markus Howard - MARQ ($9,500 DK / $8,800 FD) - Outside of the two Duke standouts, Howard may be the best pay-up option on tonight’s slate for his ridiculously high floor and upside. Howard is averaging nearly 42 DK points and 27.5 real points over the last six games as he’s dominating Marquette’s shot volume and possession usage in conference play - both marks are tops in the Big East. While he’s always a threat to score 30+ points, Howard is usually a lock to rack up 8-10 rebounds+assists with a few steals. In his first meeting with DePaul last month, Howard put up 38 DK points with a line of 23 points, nine assists and three boards on 4-for-10 shooting with a whopping 15-for-15 from the free-throw line. That game is exactly why Howard’s floor is so high - when he’s not making a ton of buckets, he has the unique ability to drive to the rim and draw fouls to still get his points (albeit in a different way).  

Tremont Waters - LSU ($8,700 DK / $8,500 FD) - Although Waters has a tough individual matchup tonight vs. Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans, the production is hard to ignore at a decent price point. Waters has truly emerged as one of the best scorers in the SEC and LSU will definitely need him to anchor the offense to pull off a road upset. The sophomore is coming off back-to-back performances of 46 DK points and he’s averaging 40.8 DK points per game over the last ten outings. Waters is a great scorer who gets large shot volume - but it’s his contribution across all stat categories that really raises his value. This has been especially evident in the last four games - Waters scored 36 real points one of those nights, dished out 10 assists on another, grabbed eight and seven rebounds in back-to-back games, and then capped it off with a balanced night of 26 points, five steals, five assists and four boards. This production in every category keeps his fantasy floor high enough tonight in a tough matchup - if he struggles shooting the ball, he can still rack up the DFS points in steals, assists and rebounds.

Xavier Pinson - MIZZ ($4,200 DK / $4,700 FD) & Torrence Watson - MIZZ ($3,400 DK / $4,100 FD) - With Missouri guard Mark Smith nursing an ankle injury and likely out again tonight, value should open up for either Pinson or Watson. It’s an either/or situation because both have started games recently and have been productive with Smith missing the last five games. Pinson had started three straight, but he came off the bench in favor of Watson on Saturday. In just his second starting nod of the year, the freshman Watson responded with 20 DK points in a season-high 31 minutes over the weekend. Obviously, Watson’s cheaper price makes him a lock if he starts again - yet he’s actually returned 5x value on his DK price in three of the last four games, all in a reserve role. Even if Pinson doesn’t start tonight, he’s still a GPP option as he was able to put up 23 DK points in 28 bench minutes last game.

Jordan Harris - UGA ($4,300 DK ONLY) - For some reason, Harris’ salary on DraftKings remains unchanged tonight after putting up 35 fantasy points in 33 minutes on Saturday. It’s a shame this Georgia game isn’t available on FanDuel’s slate because he’s a near-lock play on DK at this cheap price tag. Harris has started the last two games and should get the nod again tonight considering he cracked the starting rotation earlier in conference play before a concussion sidelined him for two games. His impressive play should cement him as a starter moving forward, though. In the loss to Missouri over the weekend, Harris had a double-double with a slate-breaking line of 10 points, 11 rebounds and two each of blocks, steals and assists. We can’t expect that type of production again, but the junior had been basically returning 5x value on his current DK price in the three games beforehand.

Other Guards to Consider:

Shamorie Ponds - STJN ($9,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Matt McQuaid - MSU ($4,900 DK / $6,300 FD)

Cartier Diarra - KSU ($4,500 DK / $4,300 FD)


Forwards

Nick Ward - MSU ($7,100 DK / $7,500 FD) & Xavier Tillman - MSU ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) - Although this low-scoring, slow-paced Michigan State-Wisconsin matchup is one we want to generally avoid, Ward and Tillman are both set to rack up DFS points at affordable price tags. Kenny Goins (elbow) will likely be limited tonight and, even if he plays, the Spartans will need the size of Ward and Tillman to bang with Wisconsin stud Ethan Happ inside. Happ is so good that MSU head coach Tom Izzo could opt to play the pair at the same time a lot tonight to give him different looks on both ends. Wisconsin is also a poor offensive rebounding team and Ward and Tillman are the best rebounders outside of Goins. Yes, this game will be low scoring with not a ton of possessions on either end, but both Tillman and Ward can rack up the rebounds, points and blocks to return value. If you’re looking for signs of upside here, both players have returned 5x value on their current DK prices at least once each in the last five games.

Cam Reddish - DUKE ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) - After a tough start to the season, Reddish has now emerged as Duke’s third-best scorer behind Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Over the last three games, the freshman is averaging 19 points and has gone 13-of-29 from three-point range (44.8%). Despite being a regular starter for Duke, Reddish was only getting about 20-25 minutes per game for much of this season. In the last seven outings, though, he’s seeing 30-35 minutes and is now playing a larger role on both ends for Duke with the team’s third-highest usage behind only Williamson and Barrett. He’s also contributing in every stat category - especially defensively, as he’s racked up at least two steals in all but one of the last seven games. For the upside he brings - at least 35 DK points in three of the last five - Reddish is possibly a little underpriced (especially on DraftKings) as Duke will definitely need his production in a high-scoring trap matchup with Louisville on the road.

Femi Olujobi - DPU ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) - If you’re new to this playbook, welcome to the portion of this article where we suggest Olujobi yet again because his price is ludicrously cheap. His playing time has fluctuated a bit recently because of foul trouble and tougher matchups, but he has the talent to 5x his DK price tonight - something he did easily in four straight just last month. DePaul’s offense is now largely run through their forwards - Olujobi and Paul Reed - in the post and both are viable DFS plays tonight. Olujobi, though, has been feasting on undersized teams in conference play and had 15 points, 11 rebounds and 33.75 DK points when he faced Marquette earlier this season. We could see a similar performance tonight with the real upside for a double-double in a high-scoring contest.

Jordan Tucker - BUT ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) - Tucker’s salary on both sites is now back to an affordable level after he was an elite value play for us earlier in conference play. The Duke transfer had been slumping lately but is coming off an impressive line vs. Georgetown on Saturday. In 33 minutes - his most since the last time he played St. John’s on Jan. 19 - Tucker put up 15 points, five rebounds, a block and a steal and went 3-for-6 from three-point range. Tucker had arguably his best game of his career in the first meeting vs. St. John’s when he had 37 DK points with 24 points, six boards and two assists. Since then, he hasn’t seen the same shot volume as he did in that game (17 shot attempts and 11 from deep), but a favorable matchup tonight against undersized St. John’s - who do not rebound well - should result in higher usage on both ends of the floor.

Other Forwards to Consider:

Zion Williamson - DUKE ($11,100 DK / $9,600 FD)

Dwayne Sutton - LOU ($6,600 DK / $7,900 FD)

Reggie Perry - MSST ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Terrell Brown - PITT ($4,500 DK ONLY)

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Markus Howard, MARQ - $9,500

G: Tremont Waters, LSU - $8,700

G: Jordan Harris, UGA - $4,300

F: Cam Reddish, DUKE - $6,800

F: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $5,500

F: Nick Ward, MSU - $7,100

U: Torrence Watson, MIZZ - $3,400

U: Terrell Brown, PITT - $4,500

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Markus Howard, MARQ - $8,800

G: Torrence Watson, MIZZ - $4,100

G: Matt McQuaid, MSU - $6,300

G: Cartier Diarra, KSU - $4,300

F: Cam Reddish, DUKE - $7,400

F: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $5,800

F: Xavier Tillman, MSU - $7,100

U: Reggie Perry, MSST - $6,200