How’d the weekend go for you in DFS College Basketball? Admittedly, it was up-and-down for this guy but there’s great news...more money is out there for us to win tonight!
The Monday DFS CBB slates are always smaller ones, but the games tonight are still very good conference matchups and every team in action has a real shot to reach the tournament. We get a Top 10 ACC battle between Virginia and North Carolina, injury-riddled Kansas travels to Fort Worth to face TCU, then Oklahoma and Baylor face-off for their tournament lives.
DraftKings and Fanduel both include all three matchups with the first tipping at 7 pm ET and the latter two at 9 pm ET.
Keep in mind with such a smaller player pool than usual on a shorter slate of games, nearly every team and game are in play. Don’t be afraid to stack teams more often than you normally would if the opportunity presents itself - especially among the favored teams.
Along the same lines, we won’t tell you to fade or target any of these games as nearly every game/team is in play tonight with just four matchups to build lineups from. Instead, we’ll simply outline each of the games on the slate with the spread and implied point totals according to KenPom’s predictions.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. Let’s get into it!
Games On Tonight’s Slate:
Virginia @ North Carolina - 7 pm ET (UVA -2 / 142 Implied Total)
Oklahoma @ Baylor - 9 pm ET (BAY -4 / 138 Implied Total)
Kansas @ TCU - 9 pm ET (TCU -1 / 149 Implied Total)
Guards
Coby White - UNC ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) - If North Carolina wants any chance of pulling out the win at home tonight vs. Virginia, it’ll likely be on the back of White running the point. The freshman has been the Tar Heels’ lead scorer and distributor during conference play and is averaging 18.5 real points, 4.6 assists and 33.8 DK points over the last ten games. This game will be very interesting as it’s a real contrast of styles between the nation’s slowest-paced team (Virginia) and the 5th-fastest (UNC). White excels when he’s quickly taking the ball up the court off a made or missed basket and driving to lane either scoring himself or setting his teammates up. On the other hand, UVA’s defense tries to slow opposing offenses down and force them to use most of the shot clock. When facing Duke twice this season, Virginia lost the tempo battle in both and ultimately lost on the scoreboard as well. Expect this one to fall somewhere in the middle with White as the lead ball-handler and a tendency to push the tempo offensively. At a pretty affordable salary considering the smaller pool of players tonight, White offers a safe floor of 35 DK points with the upside to reach 50 or more - a mark he reached twice in the last five games.
Devon Dotson - KU ($6,300 DK / $6,300 FD) - Dotson’s salary is oddly cheap considering his DFS production lately and on tonight’s smaller slate with few elite plays. The freshman guard has returned 5x value in each of the last three games as he’s averaged 17 points, 4.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.7 steals over that span. Dotson was starting to become a focal point in Kansas’ offense recently - with double-digit shot attempts in five of the last six games - but he gets a major boost tonight with Lagerald Vick and Marcus Garrett likely out for a second straight game. On Saturday, Dotson saw a big increase in usage with Vick and Garrett out as he ran the high/low game with Dedric Lawson a ton and had the ball in his hands a ton. At this price with his expected usage and shot volume, Dotson might be the best play on the entire slate for both sites.
Jared Butler - BAY ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) - With Makai Mason and King McClure both listed as game-time decisions tonight, Butler could see an increase in ball-handling responsibilities and scoring opportunities for a second straight game. Butler started at the point guard spot on Saturday with Mason (foot) and McClure (knee) sitting out - and returned 23 DK points at a price point that was actually higher than his current one. Although Butler’s shooting wasn’t sharp - 5-for-15 from the field and 3-for-10 from three - the expanded playing time and shot volume was encouraging enough to make him a strong cash play on tonight’s short slate. Since entering the starting rotation last month, the freshman has returned 4x value on his current DK price tag in seven of those nine starts and has proven to be a solid DFS play even with Mason and McClure in the lineup. If one or both of his teammates do end up playing, Butler can still easily return value but has the upside for much more if he’s the lead ball-handler again.
Devonte Bandoo - BAY ($4,300 DK / $4,700 FD) - Possibly the biggest beneficiary of Mason and McClure sitting out last game was Bandoo, who got the start for the first time since November and saw a significant increase in playing time, usage and shot volume. The junior logged 36 minutes, took 13 shots and returned 27+ DFS points on both sites as one of Baylor’s only healthy guards on Saturday. While Jared Butler remains a safe play whether or not Mason or McClure suit up, Bandoo’s value depends more on his teammates’ availability. For the season, he was averaging just 18.5 minutes and 12.8 DK points off the bench for Baylor - but the expanded role last time out made him a nice value play on the Saturday slate. If Bandoo does indeed get a second straight start with Mason/McClure out, he’ll be a cash and GPP lock tonight at a cheap price on both sites. Even if they play in a limited role, there’s a chance he gets extended playing time either way.
Other Guards to Consider:
Alex Robinson - TCU ($7,900 DK / $7,700 FD)
Kyle Guy - UVA ($6,500 DK / $6,500 FD)
Ochai Agbaji - KU ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)
Kendric Davis - TCU ($3,700 DK / $3,700 FD)
Forwards
Dedric Lawson - KU ($10,100 DK / $8,900 FD) - Despite being the highest-priced player on both sites, Lawson needs to be in consideration for cash and tournaments as he stands in a tier of his own at the forward position tonight. North Carolina’s Luke Maye comes close, but no other forward is averaging 41 DK points per game over the last ten outings or has a legit shot at 50 DFS points nightly - Lawson claims that high floor with monster ceiling upside. With Marcus Garrett and Lagerald Vick expected to sit out tonight for the second straight game, Lawson should get a ton of usage and shot volume in the pick-and-roll with Devon Dotson. That’s exactly what happened on Saturday when Lawson put up 43 DK points to the tune of 25 points, seven rebounds, five assists and a steal. When playing such a short slate like tonight’s 3-gamer, it’s really tough to fade the best players as you can’t afford to miss out on the monster performance when it comes. As you’ll notice, there’s enough value at guard and forward to make Lawson work in lineups.
Kouat Noi - TCU ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD) - If you’ve followed these playbooks in the past, you know we like to target bigs against Kansas ever since Jayhawks’ center Udoka Azubuike went down for the season. The KU defense simply does not have the size or rim-protectors right now and has been very generous to opposing forwards in conference play - especially small and power forwards, where Noi plays nearly all of his minutes. Coincidentally, Noi has been very good on the offensive end since entering the starting rotation a month ago - scoring at least 15 real points in six of the last eight games and getting double-digit shot attempts regularly. Noi should also benefit from an easy individual matchup as notable absences for Kansas have thrust bench players into starting roles - plus he won’t have to guard Jayhawks’ center Dedric Lawson much on the defensive end as TCU boasts a number of taller, better defenders in the paint. This should free up Noi to get his normal double-digit shots with the upside to post 30-40 DFS points.
Mitch Lightfoot - KU ($3,000 DK / $3,900 FD) - The absences of Lagerald Vick and Marcus Garrett has forced Kansas to shift their rotations around - and Lightfoot is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this. On Saturday, Lightfoot didn’t start but he still saw a season-high 20 minutes and contributed across every stat category for 24+ fantasy points. He got more playing time and better DFS production than his Jayhawks teammate who got the start over him, David McCormack. If Vick and Garrett are both out again (which all indications point to that being the case), Lightfoot is too good to pass up. A value play this cheap is like DFS gold on a short slate like tonight and becomes a near must-play - especially at his min-price on DraftKings - because it allows you to pay up for more of the minimal number of studs tonight. Keep in mind, though, he could be fairly popular because the value plays are noticeably smaller with only six teams in action.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Luke Maye - UNC ($8,200 DK / $8,400 FD)
Kristian Doolittle - OU ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)
Freddie Gillespie - BAY ($4,000 DK / $4,000 FD) - If McClure is out for Baylor
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Devon Dotson, KU - $6,300
G: Coby White, UNC - $7,200
G: Jared Butler, BAY - $5,100
F: Kouat Noi, TCU - $6,700
F: Mitch Lightfoot, KU - $3,000
F: Luke Maye, UNC - $8,200
U: Ochai Agbaji, KU - $5,500
U: Alex Robinson, TCU - $7,900
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Devon Dotson, KU - $6,300
G: Ochai Agbaji, KU - $5,800
G: Alex Robinson, TCU - $7,700
G: Jared Butler, BAY - $5,700
F: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $7,000
F: Mitch Lightfoot, KU - $3,900
F: Dedric Lawson, KU - $8,900
U: Devonte Bandoo, BAY - $4,700