The Super Bowl is tomorrow...so what’s there to do on the Saturday beforehand? Win some money in DFS College Basketball, of course! 

As usual, we have a deep early slate today on both sites with the first games tipping at 12 pm ET. DraftKings has a 14-game slate while FanDuel’s contests include 12 of those games - the Memphis-South Florida and Providence-DePaul matchups are the outliers on DK.

One thing to keep in mind for these massive Saturday slates with the biggest player pools you’ll see all week - the margin for error is a bit different than on the three or four-game tilts. There’s a larger top-tier of players than usual today (instead of maybe one or two on the smaller slates) - creating a tougher chance to cash. If you miss out on a stud who goes off, you can easily make back those points if you hit on a different top-tier player. BUT if your expensive players go bust, you could find yourself in a bigger hole than usual because the majority of entries likely had one of their own smash value.

This deeper player pool also stresses the importance of value plays. Due to the larger number of expensive options we want some exposure to, we need to find those cheap players who can return 4x or 5x value. Now, you can afford to have these plays to bust once in a while - but only if your studs have good games and you’re not trying to win the bigger GPP contests.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

Games To Target:

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina State - 12 pm ET (VT -1 / 155 Implied Total)

St. John’s @ Duke - 12 pm ET (DUKE -19 / 161 Implied Total)

North Carolina @ Louisville - 2 pm ET (LOU -2 / 156 Implied Total)


Game To Fade:

Georgia Tech @ Florida State - 12 pm ET (FSU -10 / 132 Implied Total)

Rutgers @ Ohio State - 12 pm ET (OSU -9 / 127 Implied Total)

Miami (FL) @ Virginia - 2 pm ET (UVA -22 / 128 Implied Total)

Guards

Coby White - UNC ($7,500 DK / $7,600 FD) - Fitting in high-priced guards will be tough on today’s slate with so many appealing top-tier forwards we want to get in lineups, but White presents a nice tournament play because he’s been balling lately. He’s put up 38 or more DK points in each of the last three games - including a massive 55-point effort vs. Virginia Tech’s tough defense last week - and is averaging 20 real points, 7.3 assists, five boards and 2.7 steals over that span. The only worrisome thing about rostering White today comes down to his previous game vs. Louisville earlier this season. It was easily the worst statistical performance of the freshman’s young career - four points, four turnovers and just 6.25 DK points. This trainwreck game limits White to GPP lineups, but he’s been very consistent in nearly every other ACC matchup and could smash value yet again today.

Markell Johnson - NCST ($6,000 DK / $6,000 FD) - If you haven’t taken a ride on the Markell Johnson DFS train this season, it’s a risky one for sure. He’s a prototypical tournament play with the mid-tier price on both sites and the same chance of either shooting a ton and smashing value or getting limited minutes, shots and usage and ruins a solid GPP lineup. Johnson missed two games last week with a hip injury, but he was back in the starting rotation last game vs. Virginia when he put up 30 DK points against the Hokies’ tough defense. His DFS value has been up-and-down all season as there’s just no guarantee for playing time and shots despite leading NC State in offensive rating, usage, assist rate and three-point shooting. Again, he’s a tournament play with the major upside to smash value and the downside to crush lineups. Roster at your own risk!

Jamal Bieniemy - OU ($4,400 DK / $5,700 FD) - Bieniemy is an interesting value play today - especially at his cheaper price on DraftKings. Oklahoma shook up their rotation a couple weeks ago and Bieniemy has benefited a ton, starting and seeing at least 29 minutes in each of the last four games. Yet, he was held scoreless and went 0-for-8 from the field in the past two games combined - a discouraging sign for someone who recently earned a starting job and scored 17 points vs. Oklahoma State last week. After that performance, Oklahoma’s media wondered out loud if Bieniemy was the next great Sooners guard to follow Buddy Hield or Trae Young.  If Bieniemy is playing 30 minutes again, there’s a good chance he bounces back and provides 4x or 5x value on DK - plus he’ll help you fit in the Zion Williamson’s of the world for GPP lineups.

Wabissa Bede - VT ($3,800 DK / $4,100 FD) - One of the big injuries to monitor today is whether or not Virginia Tech’s Justin Robinson plays. Tech’s leading point guard hurt his leg in Wednesday’s loss to Miami, was seen in a walking boot and is questionable to suit up today. If he’s out, ball-handling duties will likely be spread out between Bede, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Ty Outlaw and Ahmed Hill vs. North Carolina State today. Bede, though, has started the last three games for Tech and logged 37 minutes last game after Robinson’s injury. Although the sophomore guard only scored seven real points and 11.75 DK points in that game, he should again see 30+ minutes if Robinson is out with only seven scholarship players healthy for Tech. At this extremely cheap price in a pace-up game, Bede could be a nice value play and is close to a near-lock if Robinson indeed sits. 

Jordan McCabe - WVU ($3,200 DK / $4,300 FD) - The Mountaineers have lost seven of eight conference games and their season is essentially done barring a miracle run in the Big 12 tournament. Head coach Bob Huggins knows this and he’s been fooling around with lineups lately to both light a fire under his veteran players and set the table for next year’s rotations. McCabe has been one of the beneficiaries of this change-up as he got the start and logged 30 minutes last game vs. Iowa State. It was a season-high in playing time for the freshman who was getting just 5-10 minutes per game as recent as last week. If McCabe gets the start again today, he becomes a very attractive value play - especially at near min-price on DraftKings. Reports out of West Virginia are that McCabe looked more comfortable running the point in the loss to Iowa State than he had all season. Although he scored just two points with three turnovers, the extended playing time is very encouraging. As you’ll see below in our “Example Lineups,” rostering McCabe will allow you to fit in Zion Williamson and a couple other studs today. 

Other Guards to Consider: 

Nickeil Alexander-Walker - VT ($8,500 DK / $8,400 FD) 

Mustapha Heron - STJN ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD)

Lindell Wigginton - ISU ($6,000 DK / $6,800 FD)

Khwan Fore - LOU ($3,500 DK / $4,400 FD) 

Tevian Jones - ILL ($3,400 DK / $4,200 FD)

Forwards

Zion Williamson - DUKE ($11,000 DK / $9,100 FD) - It’s come to the point where fading Zion in your DFS CBB lineups is just playing with fire. He’s the salary king on both sites and, yes, the expensive price tag is scary at first glance, but he claims the highest ceiling of anyone on today’s slate with legit potential to 5x his high price tag. The uber-freshman does it all for Duke, averaging 23.5 real points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 3.7 blocks+steals and 46 DK points over the last ten games - including two 60-burger performances. Duke is projected to score the most points of any team on this main slate (91 according to KenPom) and Williamson is always the best way to get exposure to the high-powered offense. If you’re playing the high-roller GPP contests, you need to find a way to fit him in your lineups. As you’ll see above and below, there’s a viable way to do so with plenty of value plays and mid-range options to make an optimal lineup work around Zion.

John Mooney - ND ($8,900 DK / $8,600 FD) - If you’re not paying up Zion Williamson (or want a nice high-end pairing option), Mooney is a very formidable pivot as he’s been one of the more dominating forwards in the ACC this season and his recent performances have cemented him as a top play at the position today. Over the last two games vs. tough opponents in Duke and Virginia, Mooney still put up double-doubles and scored 30+ DK points in both. In the previous five-game stretch, the junior averaged 19.6 real points, 15 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 48.7 DK points as he’s now put up seven straight double-doubles. He’s proven to be pretty matchup-proof in conference play and he’ll get a pretty favorable one again today vs. BC - a team he dominated in the first meeting this season. When Mooney faced Boston College a couple weeks ago, he had 27 points, 12 boards and three blocks with 54.5 DK points. Lock Mooney into your cash lineups today and give him a look for tournaments with expected high ownership on Zion Williamson.

Jaxson Hayes - UT ($6,300 DK / $6,700 FD) - For much of this season, it was clear Hayes was Texas’ best player as a potential first round NBA draft pick - and he’s finally proving it. The freshman took some time to get going, but he’s become the Longhorns’ top offensive option in conference play. After the starting the year off the bench, Hayes has started every Big 12 game and he’s benefited from opposing defenses having to worry about Dylan Osetkowski in the paint as well. Over the last four games, Hayes has scored in double figures with at least four blocks+steals in each outing while averaging nearly 30 DK points. He also leads the team in offensive rating and block rate this year. Iowa State - his opponent today - has excellent guard play but they don’t claim great size in the paint and thus don’t particularly rebound well. Following a nine-rebound effort vs. Kansas last time out, Hayes has a real shot at his first double-double of the season with 3-4 blocks thrown in.

Dwayne Sutton - LOU ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD) - We don’t want to put too much stock into what a player did the last time he faced a team - but for Sutton it’s tough to ignore. Against North Carolina earlier this season, Sutton put up a 50-burger on DraftKings with 17 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and four steals. For much of the season, Sutton has benefited from opposing defenses being more focused on stopping Louisville’s Jordan Nwora - allowing Sutton to produce quietly in his shadow. The recent emergence of Malik Williams has also raised Sutton’s value, who’s coming off a 45-point fantasy performance with his fourth double-double in the last seven games. The price difference between the two sites is also notable - as his DK salary is a bargain for the ceiling he can provide.

Nate Fowler - BUT ($4,300 DK / $4,400 FD) - After coming off the bench for all of Big East play, Fowler started his first conference game last time out with Joey Brunk dealing with an illness. The senior Fowler saw a season-high 27 minutes with seven points and six rebounds. That game was on Wednesday and there’s a real possibility Brunk is still sick and comes off the bench in favor of Fowler yet again. What makes Fowler especially appealing is his rebounding upside vs. Seton Hall today. He’s Butler’s best offensive rebounder and gets a matchup vs. an undersized Seton Hall squad with not much rebounding skill. At 6’10” and 240 pounds, Fowler could easily have his way on the glass on both ends if he sees extended minutes again.

Other Forwards to Consider:

RJ Barrett - DUKE ($10,200 DK / $8,800 FD)

Femi Olujobi - DPU ($6,700 DK Only)

Kerry Blackshear - VT ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

Nassir Little - UNC ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)

E’Torrion Wilridge - UGA ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Coby White, UNC - $7,500

G: Jamal Bieniemy, OU - $4,400

G: Wabissa Bede, VT - $3,800

F: John Mooney, ND - $8,900

F: Zion Williamson, DUKE - $11,000

F: Dwayne Sutton, LOU - $6,200

U: Nassir Little, UNC - $4,900

U: Jordan McCabe, WVU - $3,200


Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: RJ Barrett, DUKE - $8,800

G: Tevian Jones, ILL - $4,200

G: Wabissa Bede, VT - $4,100

G: Markell Johnson, NCST - $6,000

F: John Mooney, ND - $8,600

F: Jaxson Hayes, UT - $6,700

F: Dwayne Sutton, LOU - $7,300

U: Jordan McCabe, WVU - $4,300