While everyone else is fretting over which Super Bowl prop bets to put their money on this week, we have DFS College Basketball contests to dominate here at Fantasy Alarm!
We’re back to the deep mid-week slates with 11 games on DraftKings and 10 on FanDuel tonight - the Nevada-UNLV is the outlier on DK. Tonight’s matchups get going at 7 pm ET and are heavy on the Big Ten, ACC and SEC conferences with one Big 12 battle thrown in.
If you’ve been following our DFS CBB playbooks this season, you know the forward position is usually weaker than the guard pool of players on a nightly basis. But one look at the top-tier tonight, you’ll notice it’s forward-heavy with big men being the four most expensive options on both sites. The big lineup decision will come down to paying up for 1-2 of Ethan Happ (Wisconsin), Dedric Lawson (Kansas), Nicolas Claxton (Georgia) and Bruno Fernando (Maryland). We’ll break down which forward to target over the others and much more!
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
Georgia @ Arkansas - 7 pm ET (ARK -7 / 149 Implied Total)
Kansas @ Texas - 7 pm ET (KU -1 / 139 Implied Total)
Mississippi State @ Alabama - 8:30 pm ET (BAMA -1 / 149 Implied Total)
Nevada @ UNLV - 11 pm ET (NEV -10 / 146 Implied Total) - DK Only
Games To Fade:
Wisconsin @ Nebraska - 8 pm ET (NEB -2 / 130 Implied Total)
Ohio State @ Michigan - 9 pm ET (MICH -10 / 124 Implied Total)
Pittsburgh @ Clemson - 9 pm ET (CLEM -6 / 130 Implied Total)
Guards
Anthony Cowan Jr. - UMD ($8,300 DK / $7,800 FD) - When Maryland is on the slate, Cowan is always one of the safest guard plays because of his role in the offense at an affordable salary. Outside a dud performance at Michigan State, the junior point guard has scored at least 32 DK points in his last five conference games - including a string of four straight games of at least 20 real points and nine assists+rebounds earlier this month. Although Bruno Fernando commands a ton of usage in Maryland’s offense, Cowan is the type of guard who will have the ball in his hands late in games - either scoring, getting fouled or assisting on drives to the basket in the second half. Expect more of the same tonight as the Terps return home to face a dangerous Northwestern team that can keep the score close late in the second half.
Marcus Garrett - KU ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD) - Playing the Kansas guards in DFS this year has been a tad like Russian Roulette. Between Lagerald Vick, Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes and Garrett - any of them can get hot and dominate shot volume in any one game. It’s happened with each this season already and it could be Garrett’s turn tonight. The sophomore is coming off a horrendous 1-for-9 shooting performance vs. Kentucky but had a few impressive fantasy games beforehand. In the three previous outings, Garrett averaged 17 points, 32.8 DK points, four steals and five rebounds+assists per game and smashed his cheap price tags. His price has risen a bit since then, but he’s still affordable on a slate like tonight where we need mid-to-low price guards to fit in the expensive forwards.
Tyree Crump - UGA ($4,700 DK / $4,800 FD) - Jordan Harris (concussion) isn’t likely to play tonight, setting up Crump for a second straight start in his place. The junior point guard got the spot start on Saturday with Harris out and responded with 21 points, six made three-pointers, five assists, three rebounds a steal for 34.75 DK points. If he indeed enters the starting rotation yet again, Crump becomes one of the top value plays on tonight’s slate. Although this Georgia-Arkansas game will be high-scoring, there aren’t too many attractive plays at their price tags and Crump represents the best way to get exposure for the potential value.
Courtney Ramey - UT ($4,600 DK / $5,600 FD) - After exclusively coming off the bench this season, the freshman has started the last three games and even logged a season-high 38 minutes on Saturday. Outside of Kerwin Roach, Ramey has been the most impressive Longhorns guard and seems to have taken over lead point guard duties for the time being. He’s put up double-digit shots and five assists in each of his last two starts and has 25+ DK points in three of the last four outings. In a pace-up game vs. Kansas, Ramey should return value tonight as one of Texas’ lead ball-handlers and playmakers.
Other Guards to Consider:
Ashton Hagans - UK ($7,200 FD)
Kerwin Roach - UT ($7,300 DK / $7,500 FD)
Zavier Simpson - MICH ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)
Anthony Gaines - NW ($4,800 DK / $6,100 FD)
Forwards
Bruno Fernando - UMD ($9,200 DK / $8,300 FD) - Fernando is the cheapest of those top four expensive forwards, but he may also be the safest among them. He’s a nightly double-double threat - as he’s done in six of the last eight conference games - and put up at least 35 DK points in each of the last three outings. Plus, he gets a matchup vs. a Northwestern team that is poor on the offensive boards, defends the three-point line well and funnels opposing offenses to the paint. This all sets up for Fernando to smash value tonight with his elite defensive rebounding skills and shooting percentage - with the upside for a few blocks and steals.
PJ Washington - UK ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD) - Although Vanderbilt has 6’10” Simi Shittu manning the middle of its defense, opposing SEC big men have been able to get him in foul trouble and dominate the paint in recent conference games. Enter Washington, who is fresh off a dominating 20-point, 13-rebound performance vs. Kansas and Dedric Lawson over the weekend. In Kentucky’s first meeting with Vandy, Washington only put up three points and eight boards - but the sophomore has been a completely different player lately on both ends. He’s scored 20 points on at least 15 shot attempts in each of the last two games as the UK offense seems to be running more through their bigs after a brief hiatus when Ashton Hagans took over point guard duties. Washington and Reid Travis could both have monster games tonight to anchor Kentucky on the road in Vandy’s rough shooting arena.
Dylan Osetkowski - UT ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) - Ever since Udoka Azubuike went down for the year, Kansas simply does not have the size or skill in the post to properly defend opposing bigs. Dedric Lawson is the only one there, but he’s not a great rim-protector and sometimes takes defensive possessions off because of his role on the offensive end. Kansas’ defense in general funnels opposing scoring to the inside as they defend the three-point line well. Osetkowski should see double-digit shots tonight and will have his way on the glass on both ends - despite Lawson’s presence. Osetkowski has two games of 37 DK points in the last four and has been safe for 22-30 points for much of the season.
Tanner Borchardt - NEB ($3,500 DK / $4,400 FD) - With Isaac Copeland lost for the season, Borchardt will get the start tonight at center, per multiple reports. The senior big man saw a career-high 25 minutes on Saturday following Copeland’s injury. Borchardt will be assigned the tough task of defending Ethan Happ in the post, which could send him into foul trouble - but with Nebraska thin at the position, expect Borchardt to get a starter’s share of minutes over freshman Brady Heiman. At this cheap price tag, you really only need 15-20 DFS points for Borchardt to return value - something he can easily do if he stays out of foul trouble.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Luke Maye - UNC ($8,400 DK / $8,000 FD)
Ignas Brazdeikis - MICH ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
Reid Travis - UK ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD)
E’Torrion Wilridge - UGA ($3,900 DK / $4,200 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Courtney Ramey, UT - $4,600
G: Tyree Crump, UGA - $4,700
G: Marcus Garrett, KU - $5,700
F: Dylan Osetkowski, UT - $6,500
F: Bruno Fernando, UMD - $9,200
F: Tanner Borchardt, NEB - $3,500
U: Reid Travis, UK - $6,200
U: Jordan Caroline, NEV - $9,500
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Courtney Ramey, UT - $5,600
G: Tyree Crump, UGA - $4,800
G: Anthony Cowan, UMD - $7,800
G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $7,200
F: PJ Washington, UK - $7,600
F: Bruno Fernando, UMD - $8,300
F: Tanner Borchardt, NEB - $4,400
U: E’Torrion Wilridge, UGA - $4,200